Borneo International Conference: Discover Borneo Nick A Chappell 1 & Waidi Sinun 2

1. Borneo International Conference: Discover Borneo Nick A Chappell1 & Waidi Sinun2 Mitigating land-use and climate change impacts in Borneo using environmental informatics Lancaster Environment Centre Lancaster University1 Conservation & Environmental Management Division, Yayasan Sabah Group2

2. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Information In UK, legal definition (a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment Environmental Information Regulations (2004)

3. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Information In UK, legal definition (a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment Environmental Information Regulations (2004) Data

4. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Information In UK, legal definition (a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment Environmental Information Regulations (2004) Laws

5. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Information In UK, legal definition (a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment Environmental Information Regulations (2004) Interpretation

6. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Information In UK, legal definition (a) the state of the elements of the environment and their interaction, (b) the factors likely to affect the elements, (c) the policies / legislation, (d) reports, (e) cost-benefit analyses and assumptions used, and (f) aspects of the state of human health and safety directly impacted by the environment Environmental Information Regulations (2004) Quality control

7. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Informatics UK’s leading environ’tal research organization… ...Research and system development focusing on the environmental sciences relating to the creation, collection, storage, processing, modelling, interpretation, display and dissemination of data and information... Natural Environment Research Council Science Topic 16

8. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Informatics UK’s leading environ’tal research organization… ...Research and system development focusing on the environmental sciences relating to the creation, collection, storage, processing, modelling, interpretation, display and dissemination of data and information... Natural Environment Research Council Science Topic 16 Traditional Decision Support System

9. 1. What is Environmental Informatics? Environmental Informatics UK’s leading environ’tal research organization… ...Research and system development focusing on the environmental sciences relating to the creation, collection,storage, processing, modelling, interpretation, display and dissemination of data and information... Natural Environment Research Council Science Topic 16 Novel EI aspects

10. 2. Why use EI to help mitigate land-use & climate change impacts in Borneo? Exact image source lost, but refers to Daily Express article 14/2/06

11. 2. Why use EI to help mitigate land-use & climate change impacts in Borneo? may present largest threat to civil society for peoples of Borneo Island

12. 3. What are these changes? 3.1. Climate change impacts in a Borneo context Climate change itself ‘average weather’ or mean & variability of atmospheric variables over anytime period normally based on +30 yrs observations

13. Globe 0.7 oC warmer than 1900 (+0.2 oC/dec past 30 yrs) Brohan et al., 2006. J. Geophys. Res. 111: d12106

14. 1960-1998 temperature trends in Borneo Malhi & Wright, 2004. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B. 359: 351-329 1961-2000: 2.7-4.0 oC/100yrs: Tanganget al., 2007. Theor. Appl. Climatol. 89: 3-4

15. evaporation from biosphere + + Temp atmos water vapour + + rainfall so called acceleration of Tropical Water Cycle

16. Impacts + Frequency of large rain/flood events + Loss of life economic loss Temp + Rainfall cyclicity drought incidence + Loss of livelihoods economic loss Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

17. EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, UniversitéCatholique de Louvain, Brussels, Bel. Data version: v11.08. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=105 Impacts + Frequency of large rain/flood events + Loss of life economic loss Temp + Rainfall cyclicity drought incidence + Loss of livelihoods economic loss Natural disaster occurrence reported for Malaysia Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

18. EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database, UniversitéCatholique de Louvain, Brussels, Bel. Data version: v11.08. http://www.preventionweb.net/english/countries/statistics/?cid=105 Impacts + Frequency of large rain/flood events + Loss of life economic loss Temp + Rainfall cyclicity drought incidence + Loss of livelihoods economic loss Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress ...but little academic work published recently in international journals

19. Impacts + Frequency of large rain/flood events + Loss of life economic loss Temp + Rainfall cyclicity drought incidence + Loss of livelihoods economic loss Bidin & Chappell, 2006. Hydrol. Process. 20: 3835-3850; Chappell et al., 2009. Hydrol. Sci. J. 54: 571-581; Hara et al., 2009. J Meteorol. Soc. Japan 87: 413-424. Kitoh & Arakawa, 2005. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32: L18709; Wu et al., 2008. J Meteorol. Soc. Japan 86: 187-203 ...Walsh & Newbery, 1999. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. B 1391: 1869-1883 Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

20. Impacts + Frequency of large rain/flood events + Loss of life economic loss Temp + Rainfall cyclicity drought incidence + Loss of livelihoods economic loss Since 2004: Baker & Bunyavejchewin, 2009. ISBN 9783540773801; Boyd et al., 2006. Int. J. Remote Sens. 27: 2197-2219; Brearley et al., 2007. J. Ecol. 95: 828-839; *Kishimoto-Yamada et al., 2009. Bull. Entomol. Res. 99: 217-227; Newbery & Lingenfelder, 2009. Plant Ecol. 201: 147-167; Silk, 2004. Oecologia 141: 114-120; Silk et al., 2008. Oecologia 158-579-588; *Skinner & Hopwood, 2004. Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 123: 216-235; Van derWerf et al., 2008. PNAS 105: 20350-20355 Natural vegetation & wildlife* stress

21. 3. What are these changes? 3.2. Land-use change impacts in a Borneo context utilizing or converting lands to provide necessary financial returns to improve national livelihoods must have some negative impacts no gain without pain http://www.worldlandtrust.org/images/places/malaysia/oil-palm-plantation-vl.jpg

22. In Borneo, observe (even by eye) more turbid rivers hopefully largely temporary (decadal scales) Chappell et al., 2004. Hydrol. Process. 18:685-701; Siti Nurhidayu Abu Bakar, PhD in progress Adapted from http://static.panoramio.com/photos/original/4545563.jpg

23. In Borneo, might observe (by e-sensors) rivers enriched in agro-chemicals http://www.bbec.sabah.gov.my/HabitatManagement/TWRnKWR.jpg HPLC for pesticide analysis Abdullah, 1995. Trends Anal. Chem. 14: 191-198

24. 4. How do we attribute change? What (or who) is responsible for the temperature change or the elevated turbidity in Borneo? past change or predicted (future) change cannot be too simplistic if wish to identify cost - effective solutions at regional scales: several or many possible agents

25. e.g., attribution of Borneo climate change see change in temperature observations Despite some recent questioning of reliability of surface observations in USA & globally due to urbanisation around met stations (e.g., Menne, 2010. J. Geophys. Res. doi:10.1029/2009JD013094, in press) = EI But how much in Borneo is due to: 1/ excessive biomass burning in the ‘West’ for many decades?

26. ‘greenhouse effect’ CO2

27. 1750: 280 ppm CO2 now: 380 ppm CO2

28. Other gases (GHGs) e.g., methane, nitrous oxide similar effect – cumulative effect CO2e Now 430 ppm CO2e Stern, 2007. ISBN: 9780521700801 IPCC, 2007. Summary for Policy Makers. In Climate Change 2007, ISBN: 9780521705974

29. and how much in Borneo is due to: 2/ local effect of fires in Borneo (e.g., 1997/98)? shown to directly reduce Borneo rainfall (via smaller cloud droplets) e.g., Rosenfeld, 1999. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26: 3105-3108 also on CO2 & aerosol* emissions Balihorn et al., 2009. PNAS 106: 21213-21218; *Lin et al., 2007. Deep-Sea Res. PtII 54: 1589-1601

30. and how much in Borneo is due to: 3/ regional rainforest loss (selective felling or clearfelling)? Global Circulation Models have shown contradictory results for the effects on evaporation & rainfall Review table from Martin Fowell, 2006 PhD Lancaster http://www.theses.com/idx/scripts/it.asp?xml=F:\index\idx\docs\all\56\it00525129.htm&subfolder=/search

31. e.g., attribution of Borneo land-use change see period when rivers turbid, how much is due: ‘90 La Nina ‘95-96 La Nina • in a wet period (e.g., La Nina)? • how much due to land - disturbance during e.g. forestry? • what does RIL look like compared to former CONV selective felling? Normalised sediment flux mm/d rainfall equivalents ‘97 El Niño ‘92 El Niño Chappell et al., 2004. Forests, Water & People in the Humid Tropics, DOI: 10.2277/0521829534 http://www.cambridge.org/catalogue/catalogue.asp?isbn=9780511108792

32. What does EI tell us? e.g., for turbidity 1/ need high quality measurements of river through all fast changes to quantify well enough – fortunately EI technology (e-sensor) developments over last 20 years allow 2/ need to ‘zoom in’ to local scales to attribute (statistically) large-scale observations to individual causal factors (e.g., presence of a riparian buffer) 3/ need to separate effects of impacts (often long residence times) from natural cycles and trends (e.g., ENSO), i.e., model long-term observations

33. cannot see & attribute change without using these key EI elements (collection, processing/QA, modelling) with any degree of confidence i.e., say specific change is probable rather than possible new emphasis on these terms in climate change science & policy

34. 5. Why worry about land-use & climate change impacts in Borneo? Why should ‘you’ worry about LU&CCI given current uncertainty in observations and models? 1/ CIVIL SOCIETY (INDIVIDUALS & COMMUNITIES) Very beauty & excitement of your Borneo environment (attracts tourists/scientists) makes you more sensitive / vulnerable to change, as it… http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/Malaysia/East/Sabah/photo862332.htm

35. can be very violent & unpredictable… e.g., Borneo Vortex e.g., ENSO drought sensitivity ‘95-96 La Nina ‘90 La Nina Inter-annual rainfall cyclicity (mm/d) ‘92 El Niño ‘97 El Niño Chang, 2004. East Asian Monsoon, ISBN: 981238692; Chang et al., 2005. Mon. Weather Rev. 133: 489-503; Juneng et al., 2007. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys. 98: 81-98 (extra Borneo impact) Chappell et al., 2004. Forests, Water & People in the Humid Tropics, DOI: 10.2277/0521829534

36. Living by rivers (kampung): vulnerable to flood events •  Living by sea (bandar): vulnerable to sea-level change, King Tides etc • Livelihoods from rainforest: complex, difficult to predict limit of use before collapse from http://www.trekearth.com/gallery/Asia/Malaysia/East/Sabah/photo697519.htm http://www.lexphoto.co.uk/blogimages/mulu%20rainforest.jpg

37. 2/ GOVERNMENT (& BUSINESS) Governments need to secure the future – maximising returns from the environment – without the risk of environmental collapse avoiding theories of collapse for e.g., Mayan, Sumerian etc civilisations, Great Dust Bowl in USA etc http://www.cathedralcitytravel.co.uk/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2007/12/belize108.jpg

38. 6. The future prospects with EI? 3 aspects of EI may help ongoing & future mitigation of land-use and climate change impacts… 1/ TECHNOLOGICAL ADVANCES 1.1. More reliable & more accurate e-sensors for measuring environment e.g., YSI Water Quality sonde

39. 1.2. Faster & cheaper computers & storage devices now have the capacity to handle (telemetry, process, model) & store (DBMS, GIS) environmental data needed http://cdn.wn.com/ph/img/c0/02/0416a42facdcf5e1aba31a444087-grande.jpg

40. 1.3. Expansion of the internet easier to access environmental information – critically for decision makers supported by scientists providing data, QA & interpretation to them also potentially for stakeholders (business / civil society) to provide input http://www.sripetaling.net/blog/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/p1000474.jpg

41. 2/ EXPANSION OF ENVIRONMENTAL EDUCATION notably expansion of university sector on Borneo Island, e.g., …many more people opportunity to make the most of complex environmental information

42. but also via greater use of computers in schools e.g., Malaysian Smart School Project http://www.itu.int

43. http://farm3.static.flickr.com/2278/3538081056_04143af98d_o.jpghttp://farm3.static.flickr.com/2278/3538081056_04143af98d_o.jpg & pupil access to environmental field stations e.g., Kuala Belalong Field Studies Centre, Brunei Darussalam http://www.ubd.edu.bn/academic/centres/kbfsc/

44. 3/ GREATER SHARING OF RESEARCH INFORMATION Traditional DSS – poor on data quality checking & modelling sophistication Decision makers need better access to high quality environmental information Recent years... researchers now compelled publish in international journals Gives environmental information... more readily available to all resource centres better quality (editors/reviewers demand)

45. Value to decision makers (& stakeholders)... a/ More readily use environmental interpretation from similar environments elsewhere in the world b/ Foreign researchers benefiting from collaborating in studies in Borneo make environmental information collated more accessible Improvements... Better access to the raw data Interpretations valuable, but surely better for decision makers (& stakeholders) in Borneo to have access to raw data collected by researchers? ...you then decide on your own interpretation

46. In UK, while slow, this is starting to happen... e.g., UK-funded climate change science including OP3 project focused on Sabah

47. e.g., UK land-use change based at LEC (CEH-Lancaster)

48. If K@Borneo were to have capacity to input / store raw data & QA (in addition to published interpretation) plus desire to request information Potential for huge benefits for decision makers (& stakeholders) Only expectation of researchers (anywhere in globe) - sufficient time to publish before sharing data & use by others is acknowledged (plagiarism avoided)

49. 6. Conclusion Incorporation of all aspects of EI into K@Borneo …tremendous potential to make significant contribution to mitigation (by decision makers) of land-use & climate change in Borneo

50. Causes Climate.. Lancaster Environment Centre, Lancaster University Conservation & Environmental Management, Yayasan Sabah