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Tsunami Research Update

Tsunami Research Update. Eddie Bernard NOAA/PMEL. Tsunami Research Update. Tsunami Science US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami National Tsunami Research Plan Tsunami Warning and Education Act NTHMP Five – Year Review Summary. Tsunami Research Update. Tsunami Science

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Tsunami Research Update

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  1. Tsunami Research Update Eddie Bernard NOAA/PMEL

  2. Tsunami Research Update • Tsunami Science • US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami • National Tsunami Research Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act • NTHMP Five – Year Review • Summary

  3. Tsunami Research Update • Tsunami Science • US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami • National Tsunami Research Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act • NTHMP Five – Year Review • Summary

  4. Tsunami is a set of long ocean gravity waves caused by any large, abrupt disturbance of the ocean surface. Example

  5. Tsunami Sources 1. Earthquakes (local and distant) 2. Landslides and Slumps 3. Combined Earthquake and Slumps 4. Volcanoes 5. Meteors 6. Other (explosions, icebergs, glaciers, etc.)

  6. 4 Sumatra 3/28/2005 M 8.7 Earthquake MagnitudevsTsunami Runup Height(38 events)After G. Plafker

  7. Near-shore submarine landslides Secondary splay thrust faults Tsunami Generation From Giant Earthquake Subduction Zones (Generic) Alternate tsunami source interpretations for near shore sources impacting Sumatra Modified from Atwater,

  8. Sumatra ~ 300 Km • Multiple Tsunami • Sources for Sumatra • Subduction front • Splay faults • Submarine landslides Map Base from Kerry Sieh Cal Tech

  9. DART II • Key technologies: • Bi-directional coms • Tsunami Detection Algorithm • Backup systems • Worldwide deployable • Plug-in to existing warning center infrastructure • Optional MET sensor

  10. Tsunami Research Update • Tsunami Science • US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami • National Tsunami Research Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act • NTHMP Five – Year Review • Summary

  11. Center of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Assistance Emergency Report : September, 2005 Damage $13.6B : Displaced 1,100,000

  12. US Response = $950M • Defense: Relief = $250M • State (USAID): Reconstruction = $660M ($16M for IO tsunami warning system) • Commerce (NOAA): Warnings= $26M • Interior (USGS): Seismic upgrade = $13M • NSF: Research surveys = $1M

  13. PMEL’s tsunami forecast methodology Pre-computed Prop. Database (MOST)  Detection Tsunameter Network(DARTs) Major Plate Boundaries Inversion Historical Tsunamis 2000 BC-Present NOAA’s SIFT Short-term Inundation Forecasting for Tsunamis Bound. & initial conditions Inund. forecast coastal com.  SIM (MOST) 1000~6000m

  14. Experimental Forecast for Nov 15,2006 Kurile Tsunami • PMEL scientists responded to Kurile tsunami by supplying experimental forecasts for 12 harbors in AK,HI,WA,CA to both warning centers hours before tsunami arrival • Experimental forecasts ( 4 hours of tsunami amplitude over time at tide stations) were produced using real time DART data and prototype forecast models • Forecasts were compared with real-time tide data from upgraded NOS tide stations Simulation

  15. The 15 Nov 2006 Central Kuril Tsunami

  16. The November 15, 2006 Central Kuril Tsunami ForecastvsObservation

  17. The Nov. 15, 2006 Kuril Is. Tsunami -- forecast modeling results

  18. Global DART Station Array (4/20/2007)

  19. US Response (Policy) • OSTP Report 1. Naming National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program as Coordinator 2. Research Review and Strategic Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act Signed into law on Dec 20,2006 Authorizes $135M from FY08-12

  20. NSTC Report

  21. U.S. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program Reduce the Impact of Tsunamis on U.S. Coastal Communities States Alaska California Hawaii Oregon Washington + 24 others Federal Agencies • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admin. • U.S. Geological Survey • Federal Emergency Management Agency

  22. Tsunami Research Update • Tsunami Science • US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami • National Tsunami Research Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act • NTHMP Five – Year Review • Summary

  23. Office Of Science and Technology Policy’s “Tsunami Risk Reduction for the United States: A Framework for Action” Research: A continuing broad scientific research effort is needed to improve our understanding of tsunami processes and impacts, and to develop more efficient and effective risk assessment, risk communication, prediction, preparedness Mitigation and warning measures. Research results can improve and make all of the activities within this plan more cost-effective Conduct an annual review of the status of tsunami research and develop a strategic plan for tsunami research in the United States

  24. Tsunami Research Plan Process • Charge/Organizing Committee- Feb/March 2006 • Pre-workshop Preparation- March-July • Workshop Process- July 25 & 26,2006 • Post- Workshop Synthesis- October 4&5 • Draft Plan approved by NTHMP- Nov 1 • Plan Published : March 2007

  25. National Tsunami Research Plan Report of an NSF/NOAA Workshop Eddie Bernard, Lori Dengler, Solomon Yim March 1, 2007

  26. FY05 Federal Agency Expenditures for Tsunami Risk Reduction ($M)

  27. Research Plan Priorities 1: Enhance and Sustain Tsunami Education 2: Improve Tsunami Warnings 3: Develop Effective Mitigation Tools 4: Understand the impacts of tsunamis at the coast 5: Improve characterization of tsunami sources 6: Develop a tsunami data acquisition, archival, and retrieval system

  28. Tsunami Research Update • Tsunami Science • US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami • National Tsunami Research Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act • NTHMP Five – Year Review • Summary

  29. Tsunami Warning and Education Act P.L. 109-424 1. Tsunami Forecast & Warning Program-NOAA 2. National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program 3. Tsunami Research Program-NOAA 4. Global Tsunami Warning & Mitigation Network

  30. SEC. 6. TSUNAMI RESEARCH PROGRAM The Administrator shall, in consultation with other agencies and academic institutions, and with the coordinating committee established under section 5(b), establish or maintain a tsunami research program to develop detection, forecast, communication, and mitigation science and technology, including advanced sensing techniques, information and communication technology, data collection, analysis, and assessment for tsunami tracking and numerical forecast modeling. Such research program shall— • consider other appropriate research to mitigate theimpact of tsunami; (2) coordinate with the National Weather Service on technology to be transferred to operations; (3) include social science research to develop and assesscommunity warning, education, and evacuation materials; and (4) ensure that research and findings are available to the scientific community.

  31. Tsunami Research Update • Tsunami Science • US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami • National Tsunami Research Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act • NTHMP Five – Year Review May 2007 • Summary

  32. NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION Tsunami Research at NSF Richard J. Fragaszy, Program Director rfragasz@nsf.gov (703) 292-7011

  33. NSF ROLE • NSF provides funding on a competitive basis for basic research in science and engineering • Almost all funds go to Universities and Colleges • NSF does not conduct research itself • NSF provides funding for Equipment and Instrumentation • Major Research Instrumentation Program (MRI) • Major Research Equipment and Facility Construction (MREFC) • NSF provides funding for Education and Outreach • Support of graduate and undergraduate students • Curriculum Development

  34. Tsunami Research at NSF • NSF has no dedicated tsunami research program • Tsunami related proposals compete with all other proposals • Tsunami research is funded through individual research programs. The main program sources include: • Engineering Directorate (ENG) • Geoenvironmental Engineering and GeoHazards Mitigation • Infrastructure Management and Hazard Response • Structural Systems and Hazards Mitigation of Structures • Geological Sciences Directorate (GEO) • Marine Geology and Geophysics • Tectonics • Geophysics • Physical Oceanography • Social, behavioral and Economic Sciences (SBE) • Economics • Geography and Regional Science • Decision, Risk and Management Sciences

  35. Tsunami Research at NSF(continued) • Additional tsunami research funding comes from: • Office of International Science and Education (OISE) • CI-TEAM • Partnerships for International Science and Engineering (PIRE) • International Workshops • Mathematical and Physical Sciences (MPS) • Applied Mathematics • Computational Mathematics • Education and Human Resources • Educational Materials Development • Computer and Information Science and Engineering (CSE) • Digital Society & Technology • Information Technology Research

  36. Current Awards • Currently there are 29 active NSF awards directly related to tsunamis (“tsunami” is in the title) • $7.4 million in funding • 71 other active NSF awards have some relationship to tsunamis (“tsunami” is in the award abstract) • $20.4 million in funding

  37. Future Funding Opportunities • Future funding for tsunami research at NSF will depend on competitiveness of research proposals • Tsunami research is a small component of many different programs that span all the Directorates • The NEES research program will continue for 6 more years, as will funding for the Oregon State wave basin • Future solicitations may provide opportunities for the tsunami research community, as has HSD and NEESR

  38. Tsunami Research Update • Tsunami Science • US Response to Indian Ocean Tsunami • National Tsunami Research Plan • Tsunami Warning and Education Act • NTHMP Five – Year Review May 2007 • Summary

  39. Summary • FY08 Projected Tsunami Research Funds NSF $7M USGS $3M NOAA $3M Total $13M • Interagency Program??? • Include FEMA, Others

  40. Cascadia Trench Lessons for the United States UNAVCO/GMT Sunda Trench

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