Partisanship and Group Voting

1. Partisanship and Group Voting POLS 4349 Dr. Brian William Smith

2. Office Hours • When • Today- 11-2 • Friday 10-12 • And by appointment • Doyle 226B

3. Learning Outcomes I • Evaluate how people develop political opinions and how this impacts their political behavior. • Evaluate and interpret the importance of partisanship in shaping political opinion and vote choice • Identify and describe the formal and informal institutions involved in the electoral process

4. Readings • Chapter 4: Partisans and Partisan Change (Flanigan) • Chapter 5: Social Characteristics of Partisans and Independents (Flanigan)

5. Partisanship Still the biggest factor in vote choice

6. The Evolution of the American Party System • Comes out of the New Deal • Focuses on the Role of Government • Does not try to represent specific social classes

7. Why American Parties are Unique • Non Ideological • Not Issue Based • Not Class Based

8. Why Not issue Based? • Many Issues are Unimportant • We adopt issues based on partisanship, not the other way around • The Parties do not take clear positions on many issues.

9. The Goal of American Parties

10. Winning by getting group votes The Social Composition of Partisan Groups

11. About Partisans • Vote More • Participate in other forms of politics • Vote your way • But who are they?

12. For Groups to Matter • It has to be big • It has to come out and vote • It has to be Loyal

13. Neither Party Can Rely on a single group • Both Parties are Heterogeneous • Both Parties Must court independents • Both parties move around the spectrum to gain votes.

14. The Roosevelt/New Deal Coalition • The Democratic Key To Success- 1932-1964 • This Breaks apart over time

15. Group Voting Today • For Most Americans No Single social or economic characteristic is a good predictor of Partisanship or voting (two exceptions) • The Rise of cross-cutting Factors

17. Religion • Americans tend to be more religious than other Western nations. • We belong to churches and go more than other nations

18. The Change in Religion as a predictor • There are many more religious divisions • There is an increase in seculars/non-religious • Some Religions are very politically active

19. Jewish Voters • The Exception to the Rule • Share many Republican characteristics, but are Democratic • More liberal than other groups, except on Israel policy • Meet all 3 criteria in 2 states

20. Catholics • Still Trend Democratic • The Result of political socialization • Less homogenous, hence less predictable

21. Protestants Evangelical Main Line Examples: Episcopalians, Lutherans, Methodists, Presbyterians Declining in number, influence and importance Difficult to Gauge • Tend to be more Conservative, and more Republican • More Rural, Poorer, and Southern • More focused on Social Issues

22. The Religion Gap

23. Not as exciting as it once was Region

24. Why Region is important • It all goes back to Political Socialization • We get basic economic and social traits based where live • Region is South vs. Non-South in America

25. The Solid South • A key component of the Roosevelt coalition • 11 states of the Confederacy Provided • 52% of necessary votes for Wilson in 1916 • 47% of the necessary votes for victory in 1932 • 31% of Kennedy’s vote in 1960 • 43.7% for Jimmy Carter in 1976 • Crucial for Opportunity Costs for Democratic Candidates- they could spend time in battleground states

26. Why Region is not as Important • Mobility • Communications • Irrigation and Air Conditioning

27. Even the South is Less Distinct • It is still the most distinct • Out-Migration of African Americans • More industrialized • Influx of Hispanic Voters

28. Not That Important Social Class

29. Why not social class • The shared belief in equality of opportunity • We have never had an appreciable socialist movement • People identify with other groups before class

30. Measuring Social Class • We ask people which class they belong to • We are very likely to say middle class • Within Social classes there are great variations in income • Our partisanship doesn’t change with rising or lowering class.

31. Social Class and Partisanship Republicans Democrats Do better with poor and working class Do better with the very wealthiest Do better with Union Members • Do better with poor whites in the South • Do better with Upper Middle Class voters • Historically have done better with Middle Class voters

32. There is a Difference Age

33. Not as Big a Deal • Age is not as important as other factors in determining partisanship • Young voters tend to be less interested in the system • Young voters tend to be more Democratic

34. Race and ethnicity

35. The American Electorate • Race is more important than class • African Americans form a political self-conscious group. And Identify with the Democratic Party

36. African American Turnout • This has increased since the 1960’s • African Americans are heavily Democratic • Important swing voters in battleground states

38. Hispanic Voters • The Fastest growing and largest ethnicity • Increasingly Democratic since 2000 • Key in CO, FL, NM