Introduction to Science and Realism

1. Introduction to Science and Realism PL SC 370 Lecture 1

2. Science • Was Oingo Boingo right? • What is science? • REMEMBER: science is all about causes • And not just any causes, generalizable causes • The question is not “what caused World War II.” It is “what causes wars.” • To find causes, we use the (drum roll please) scientific method

3. The Method • Just like Hamlet, there is a method to our madness • Theory → Hypotheses/Logic →Testing • We start with a theory • From the theory we derive hypotheses, and back them up with logic (never forget the logic part!!!) • Finally we go out and (of all things) try as hard as we can to prove ourselves wrong. Why would we do such a masochistic thing?

4. Co-Variation • Variables are anything that can change • Independent variable (X) • Dependent variable (Y) • X→Y • Relationships • Positive. If high X then high Y, or if low X then low Y • Negative. If low X then high Y, or if high X then low Y • For X to cause Y, the two must vary together • You cannot explain a dependent variable that varies with an independent variable that does not vary!!! • But be careful! Data will lie to you sometimes!

5. Example #1 • Blimes’ theory of incendiary chromatics • Red stuff causes fire. • Hypothesis 1: Since fire trucks are red, they probably cause fire. If that is true, then the more fire trucks arrive at a fire location, the greater the amount of fire damage will occur • Empirical evidence shows this is the case. • What is wrong here?

6. Example #2 • A complete theory of gravity • We know the mass of the earth and can calculate the exact rate at which objects will fall • Hypothesis 1: If we go to the top of this building and drop any member of the University of Utah football team from the roof, he will fall at 10m/sec2 • Empirical evidence shows that he actually falls a bit slower, so we reject our theory • What is wrong here? • This is why rocket scientists are chumps!

7. Be Careful • Examine every step of the scientific process to look for faulty inferences about causation • Remember evidence can trick you to either believe something you shouldn’t or to reject something you should believe • Don’t be too put off by some error. Remember, social science is hard. If we are right half the time, we have done a great job

8. Toward a Science of Politics • World War I (AKA “The War to End All Wars”) • Whoops … World War II • Development of law-like regularities • Causation, causation, causation • Independent and dependent variables • X→Y (the level of X causes the level of Y) • X is the independent (or predictor) variable • Y is the dependent (or outcome) variable

9. Political Science • What makes a good research question? • Important • Normative vs Positive • Falsifiable • What kinds of questions should political scientists ask?

10. Ancient Realism (?) • Thucydides • Battle of Marathon (490 BC) • Thermopylae and Salimis (480 BC) • Delian League formed to maintain a strong navy • Corinth and Athens and the Peloponnesian War (431-404 BC) • “The growth of the power of Athens, and the alarm which this inspired in Lacedaemon (Sparta), made war inevitable”

11. Power • What is power? • Hard power • Soft power • Realists focus on power as an independent variable (in other words, power has some kind of causal effect on stability)

12. Classical Realism • Hans Morganthau • States seek power in order to protect themselves • States seek power because it is human nature to do so • Do you foresee any problems with using “human nature” as a variable?

13. Neorealism (Structural Realism) • This is the most commonly used IR theory • Kenneth Waltz • Human nature is a constant, so how can it explain variation? • Waltz’s Neorealism relies on three very important assumptions (memorize them!!!) • States exist in a state of anarchy • The state is the only important actor, and the system is the only important level of analysis • Actors are unitary rational

14. Anarchy • All states function in an anarchic system • There is no overall international authority; no “global cop” • If state A and B make an agreement and state A breaks it, what happens? • A is only punished if B has the power and motivation to do so. • No objective outside force steps in and punishes A • Therefore: • We live in a “self help” world • States are interested in relative gains (as opposed to absolute) • The number 1 concern of all states is continued survival

15. The State • Neorealists do not study sub-state actors (interest groups, voting bodies, etc.) • They focus only on the state • States are constrained to act in the same way • Remember the Isle of Rand. The group that wanted to be nice would have been eaten alive if they had actually done so. States must act in a selfish manner if they are to survive. It would be morally wrong to act non-selfishly • That means, for example, that democracies and autocracies should be acting the same way, so there is no need to add that as a variable • But if all states act the same way, why would realists focus on them?

16. The System • Levels of analysis • Individual (no variation) • State (no variation) • System (variation!) • What varies is the distribution of power in the system across time • Unipolar • Bipolar • Multipolar • Bipolar should be the most stable because there is too much uncertainty about who would win a potential war • So, to keep stability, states should balance (instead of buck-pass or chain gang)

17. Unitary Rational • That states are “unitary” means that there is one decision making entity. While this is obviously not entirely accurate, neorealists say that treating states as if they were unitary makes things easier (and is fairly accurate) • That states are “rational” means this and only this: they have preferences over outcomes, and they can rank those preferences from best to worst (complete and transitive), and act according to some cost-benefit analysis to obtain the best possible outcome