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Plausible and Implausible Scenarios

Plausible and Implausible Scenarios. Fall 2012 Ted M itchell. You are about to read a business scenario. The scenario has two different conclusions. You are to judge how plausible or implausible each conclusion is for the scenario.

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Plausible and Implausible Scenarios

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  1. Plausible and Implausible Scenarios Fall 2012 Ted Mitchell

  2. You are about to read a business scenario. • The scenario has two different conclusions. • You are to judge how plausible or implausible each conclusion is for the scenario.

  3. To what degree do the conclusions to the following scenario sound plausible or unlikely? • Your profit margin decreased from last quarter to this quarter. Your firm had a profit margin of 20% last quarter and it decreased to 15% this quarter. Alternative Conclusions:A) The amount of profit you earned decreased.B) The amount of profit you earned increased. • a) Conclusion A sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion B sounds very implausible or unlikely • b) Conclusion B sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion A sounds very implausible or unlikely • c) Both Conclusions A and B sound very plausible or likely • d) Both Conclusions A and B sound very implausible or unlikely

  4. To what degree does the conclusion to the following scenario sound plausible or unlikely? • The turnover rate among your sales force has improved from last year to this year. Your turnover rate was 10% last year, and then it dropped to 8% this year. Alternative Conclusions: • A) Moresales people decided to leave your firm this year than last year.B) Fewer sales people decided to leave your firm this year than last year. • a) Conclusion A sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion B sounds very implausible or unlikely • b) Conclusion B sounds very plausible or likely and conclusion A sounds very implausible or unlikely • c) Both Conclusions A and B sound very plausible or likely • d) Both Conclusions A and B sound very implausible or unlikely

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