Christopher Worswick Department of Economics Carleton University February 1, 2010.

1. Economic Migration and Integration in Canada: Persistent Challenges in a Complex Policy Environment Christopher Worswick Department of Economics Carleton University February 1, 2010.

2. Outline • Introduction • Why Have Immigrants Struggled in the Labour Market? • Dynamic Policy Environment • Research Questions • Concluding Remarks

3. Introduction • Canada receives approximately 250,000 immigrants each year. • In 2008, 149,072 immigrants landed under the economic categories with 43,360 being principal applicants in the skilled Workers and Professionals category. • A heavy emphasis is placed on post-secondary education, especially university degrees in the selection of PAs under the Skilled Workers category.

4. Over the past 30 years, we have seen a pronounced decline in the earnings of new immigrants entering the Canadian labour market. • Increases in education levels and increased resources devoted to settlement services do not seem to have reversed this trend.

5. Why Have Immigrants Struggled in the Labour Market? • Decline in returns to foreign work experience. • Deterioration in labour market outcomes of all new entrants. • Education credential recognition problems. • Macroeconomic shocks: early 1990s recession, early 2000s IT bubble collapse. • Occupational imbalances in our intake.

6. Dynamic Policy environment: • Expanding role of provincial governments. • First, through the Quebec selection system, • Second, through the introduction and expansion of the Provincial Nominee Programs (PNPs). • This poses new challenges in terms of coordination of policy and successful adaptation of policy to support better labour market outcomes of new immigrants.

7. Canadian Experience Class • Introduction of the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) is an important first step in terms of rewarding applicants who have either Canadian work experience or Canadian post-secondary education. • This has the potential to tap into the large number of foreign students at Canadian post-secondary institutions who are likely to make a successful integration into the Canadian labour market.

8. Temporary Foreign Workers • Expansion of the Temporary Foreign Workers Programs poses a new challenge to Canadian public policy. • Difficult to determine when a vacancy cannot be filled by a citizen or permanent resident. • Risk that this program could depress real wage growth.

9. Research Questions • What is the right balance for the selection of immigrants between human capital considerations, occupational shortages and employer nomination? • How can we introduce occupational balance into our selection system without focusing entirely on filling occupational shortages which may be impossible to predict and which may be short-lived?

10. Employer Nomination • What is the role of employer nomination? • Many PNPs are geared to employer nomination of applicants and tight occupational targeting. • Is this likely to lead to immigrants with better labour market outcomes than the highly educated landed immigrants currently migrating through the points system?

11. Language Fluency at Landing • How would a tightening of the language requirements impact on the success of future arrival cohorts of immigrants? • Would it lead to a large decline in applicants who could achieve the pass mark for the points system?

12. Language Training and Other Integration Programs • Very little formal evaluation using modern economic methods has been carried out for immigrant settlement programs. • How effective are these programs? • We see significant growth in earnings for certain immigrant groups but is this due to settlement programs or in spite of them?

13. Federal/Provincial Challenges • Can we sustain a system of immigration with a heavy provincial component within the context of free mobility of individuals within Canada? • This is a similar problem to that which the EU faces?

14. Temporary Foreign Workers • What is the appropriate number of temporary foreign workers in Canada? • Should the number be larger in expansions and smaller in recessions? • If PNPs continues to expand will this lead to a new influx of less skilled workers into Canada through TFWs applying through the PNPs for landed status?

15. Is this a good thing for the Canadian economy if the alternative is to select higher skilled workers? • If foreign individuals become TFWs so as to access landed status through a PNP, are they potentially willing to tolerate abuse by employers if the ultimate goal is to secure a longer term future in Canada for themselves and their children (and possibly parents)?

16. Concluding Remarks • The Canadian immigration policy roadway is littered with good ideas and good intentions. • At the moment, policy development seems a dangerous distance out in front of research. • We need a culture change with regard to policy evaluation and data availability.