The Case for High Speed Rail

1. The Case for High Speed Rail Independent supplier of strategic risk management consultancy to the international transportation industries.

2. The Case for High Speed Rail What is High Speed Rail (HSR) Why is it necessary? What will it cost? The UK Market for HSR International Comparisons Benefits Current Proposals and Strategy Conclusions

3. What is High Speed Rail? High Speed Rail: Inter City or Inter Regional Travel at >250kph (>150mph); typically 300 to 350 kph (180-210mph) High Frequency; ca. 10 trains per hour, per direction High Density; > 500 � 750 seats per train Central Manchester � Central London in under 80 minutes! Not possible by car, conventional rail or air.

4. What is High Speed Rail? There is no internationally agreed definition of what constitutes a high speed railway (HSR) EU directive on interoperability defines HS rail as routes operating at > 200 km/h (125 mph) Typical speeds for HSR elsewhere are 300 km/h or greater High speed railways do tend to share certain characteristics including: New or substantially upgraded infrastructure Wide minimum track radius to allow high speeds Wide spacing between tracks to reduce air pressure between passing trains No level crossings

5. High Speed Rail in the UK The UK�s only HSR route is the channel tunnel rail link (now known as High Speed 1), which consists of: 109 Km long new high speed route 3 major tunnel sections totalling 25 Km

6. High Speed 1 (CTRL) London � Paris (via Tunnel) 135 min 1998 - 2007 On time, on budget �Mainly French� standards, equipment PM, Design � Bechtel, US Cost: �5.8bn

7. High Speed 1 (CTRL) 4 new station developments (St. Pancras, Stratford, Ebbsfleet, Ashford) Major bridge across the River Medway (the longest span high speed rail viaduct in Europe) 117 other bridges and structures traverses rural and major urban areas

8. Technologies Rolling stock EMU�s Double-decker trains possible on new infrastructure Trains can run at speeds of up to 350 Km/h Powerful - about 10 � 12MW continuous Reliable � distributed traction

9. Technologies Signalling and communications In cab signalling, transmission from track to train Moving block, high capacity; 3 to 5 min headways Automatic train control / protection Very safe: ERTMS level 3 (under development)

10. Technologies Track, Civils and Power Continuously welded rail Resilient trackform (quieter) Viaducts, tunnels common Substantially straight Fairly large gradients Dedicated � no mixed train types, little or no freight 50kV autotransformer OLE Nuclear powered�.in France.

11. Technologies Maglev Magnets: floats over track Ridiculously fast (~600 kph) A very, very risky investment And very, very expensive Prestige, demonstrator, conceptual Largely unproven in revenue service It won�t happen here for a very long time indeed We did have one though�

12. HSR�s Key Competitive Advantages

13. HSR�s Competitive Advantage HSR offers an advantage for journeys over medium distances but relatively little incremental benefit over either very long or very short distances

14. Competitive Advantage of HSR

15. High Speed Rail Overseas

16. Overseas HSR France has over 1500 km of HSR route serving 9 major cities Germany has 4 HSR routes covering almost 900 km with 3 further routes planned

17. Overseas HSR Spain has several HSR routes open or under construction totalling over 1000 km Japan opened the world�s first HSR in 1964, the Tokyo to Osaka Shinkansen, which has since been expanded (now over 2400 km)

18. Overseas HSR Other countries in Asia such as China, Korea and Taiwan have introduced HSR Some US states (such as California and Florida) are considering HSR links between major cities

19. Demand

20. Demand The West Coast Mainline and M6/M1 are �full� Standing commonplace! Scrum at Euston!! M25!!!

21. Demand Demand for HS rail will be greatest where there is a significant benefit in journey times I.e. for journeys greater than 150 km and less than 800 km Between areas of relatively dense population Particularly where the densely populated areas are aligned in �corridors� E.g. Manchester to London�. Source: Steer Davis Gleeve / Atkins / DfT

22. Demand Lord Adonis noted the similarity between population densities and distances in and around Japanese cities being similar to those in the UK� Backed by Govt and senior Conservatives

23. Demand Traffic: The National Audit Office said in 2006 that the WCML might not be able to cope with current levels of growth beyond 2015�

24. Capacity Many countries have built high-speed rail lines as much for reasons of capacity as for reasons of speed Signalling systems can handle trains every 3-5 minutes Trains tend to have a large number of seats French TGV duplex trains approx 1000 seats Japanese HS trains up to 1600 seats A large capacity system

25. Capacity All this equates to the same capacity as a Boeing 737 every 45 seconds or 3 parallel motorways! It is needed, as forecast growth in rail/road traffic >> GDP growth over the next 20 years

26. Capacity Reliability is important to capacity Largely or substantially �new� infrastructure Modular, standardised, �homegenous� TSI-compliant, attention paid to systems integration issues Built for maintainability, redundancy, resilience High reliability will make people trust the train and like it � success will breed success�..

27. Something Happening?The Headlines 05 September 2008 �High-speed rail link inquiry� 24 June 2008 �RAIL ALTERNATIVE TO HEATHROW PLANS� 05 January 2009 �Heathrow could get high speed rail hub�

28. New HSR Routes for the UK Proposed routes for new HSR links Any routes that are taken up are likely to be developed in stages from London northwards

29. New HSR Routes for the UK High Speed 2 � an option proposed by Greengauge 21, 2007 A new HS line to the North West with connection to HS1

30. Benefits � Economic and Business

31. Benefits � Economic and Business A report by Greengauge 21 in June 2006 entitled �High Speed Trains and the Development and Regeneration of cities�, which examines the effects of HSR in Europe states that: �Travel by high speed trains [...] is focussed very much on the service sectors of the economy: business, public administration, leisure, commerce and tourism.� The report concludes that... HSR services can serve as a major factor in the development of city economies reflecting gains in the following 3 ways: Cities are brought closer together boosting business activities Gains are most likely to be made by cities oriented to service sector businesses Effective movement within and beyond the conurbation is vital for cities to benefit from high speed rail access

32. Benefits � Economic and Business Connecting regional UK to the Capital/beyond Like it or not, London is the economic epicentre of the UK: >30% of GDP Proximity of the customer, economic stimulation and regeneration more likely South-east capacity constraints can be reduced??

33. Benefits � Economic and Business most obvious benefit is reduced journey times London to Edinburgh: 2 hours 35 minutes London to Glasgow: 3 hours London to Manchester: 1 hour 20 minutes (based on TGV style North-South link, source: Department for transport, 2004) Other, regional, benefits include: Inward investment Housing and economic development Additional opportunities for tourism Business linked and integrated to the SE

34. Benefits � Economic and Business A cost to benefits ratio can be developed: Methodology widely open to interpretation but overall C/B > 1 Benefits shown to exceed costs by >2 ~ 3 Source Steer Davis Gleeve / Greengage 21

35. Environmental Benefits Land take is significantly lower for HSR than for motorways; Capacity has to be put somewhere Land use very significant in crowded UK, less so in less dense France Much more energy efficient

36. Environment Benefits On main European journeys, high-speed trains generate between 4 and 40 times less C02 per passenger than other modes of transport Travelling by rail uses 2 to 3 times less energy than journeys by road A high-speed railway line takes up half as much space as a motorway Trains return energy to the grid when braking

37. HSR: Rationale Alleviates overcrowded conventional rail networks particularly on routes in and out of London Reduces demand on busy road networks Enables provision of environmentally friendly and energy efficient transport systems Provides convenience; the main alternative to HSR on journeys above 400 km is air but most airports are on the outskirts of cities

38. Case Made? A �no-brainer�?

39. Case Made? Not quite: There are significant financial, management, technical, political and environmental problems to overcome�

40. Financial

41. Financial Costs of recent new HS rail routes have ranged from around �7m per km (Madrid to Lerida, Spain) to �50m per km (CTRL, UK) Part of the reason for the high cost of CTRL was due to high proportion of tunnels Other reasons include the cost of land, labour costs, regulatory/approval processes We need to get to the bottom of rail project costs in the UK�..

42. Financial Recent cost estimates for HSR in the UK (March 2008 Atkins): London to Birmingham: �9 billion London to Leeds: �12 billion London to Edinburgh and Glasgow: �31 billion Ian Coucher of Network Rail recently estimated the cost of HSR at between �15m and �19m per kilometre.

43. Financial Public-sector infrastructure provision DfT specified and paid for, private project management? Government underwritten SPV (c.f. Network Rail) Unlimited liability Raising the funds may take some time Post credit crunch?

44. Financial Risky venture for private investors Tube PPP Metronet � collapsed Many uncertainties, risks unquantifiable Private sector ROSCO for the trains (proven), private operator for the services/stations/maintenance (proven?)

45. Project Management

46. Project Management National Audit Office (NAO) head Sir John Bourn said of the WCML: �The weaknesses in the management of the project before 2002 should provide ample warning of the dangers of entering into a scheme on this scale without clear leadership, plans and project management expertise; without fully engaging stakeholders; and using untried technologies.�

47. Project Management We need all of these tools and techniques at the project�s disposal, properly implemented HS1 = A resounding success Capacity to do more than one thing at a time; new nuclear, Tube upgrades, Crossrail, Thameslink, Metrolink, etc, etc,etc�

48. Technical

49. Technical Finding an adequate route To attain high speed, trains need a straight line/very gentle curves Tunnelling is extremely expensive and can be technically very, very difficult Systems Issues (not just civils) likely to be challenging Use existing approaches to cities could reduce costs significantly

50. Technical Proposal for Manchester as a �stop� on the line to Leeds�. Nice idea. How? More likely to be a secondary HS route in the East? �Heathow Hub� �4.6bn � Arup: Finish 2019 HS1 comes to London via the east�.LHR in West. Tunnel to connect HS1 to HS2�not direct Implications for regional airport strategy?

51. Political

52. Political Planning Act of Parliament will almost certainly be required re: Crossrail, PPP, etc. Not likely to be an uncontroversial/easy passage Govt�s �planning commission� could overrule local authority restrictions � no Sizewell �B� epic? Effect of road congestion charging policy, e.g. National, City (C. London, Manchester�)?

53. Political What marginal constituencies will be affected?? Third Runway Debate What else could be affected? Integrated Kent Franchise � Javelin White elephants and stations �in the middle of nowhere�?

54. Environmental

55. Environmental Noise Solutions: special earthworks, skirts, aerodynamic pantographs, resilient wheels, etc. etc. Construction works Particularly those close to population centres Depot activity SSSIs re: HS1 experience

56. Options

57. Options Meeting Demand Do nothing � the NW economy will become steadily more isolated, seize up / become less competitive Increase road provision drastically � environmentally and politically unsustainable Invest in upgrades / tilting trains again � disruptive, expensive and no less difficult Adding airport capacity makes no difference Build an HS Network!

58. Conclusions

59. Conclusions Can afford it � similar price to cut in VAT! Economically viable B/C ~ 2 maybe more� Provides additional diversity and capacity into the transport system Integrates the high growth economy of the SE with the NW Some significant problems to overcome Environmentally sound, most sustainable solution

60. Thank You Any questions?