Campaigns and Elections

1. Campaigns and Elections

2. Candidates • “self-starters” vs. recruited by parties • Motivation • Profile

4. Changing campaign styles • More personalized • Less reliant on organization • More expensive • More professionals, less volunteers

5. “Stump Speaking” by George Caleb Bingham – c. 1830s

6. Warren Harding’s Front Porch Campaign – Mass Media Election, 1920

7. Harry Truman’s Whistle Stop Campaign, 1948

8. Television Campaign Ads Are the biggest part of spending in modern campaigns. • They can be designed to promote a candidate in a number of ways: • Present a biography – Introduce the candidate • Claim accomplishments/record • Compare to other candidates • Respond to other ads An example: Ronald Reagan’s “Morning in America” (1984) Into which category does this fall? LBJ Daisy (1964)

9. Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary dominate early political news coverage

10. Primaries • Closed • Open • Blanket • Run-off

11. Caucus

12. 1860 GOP Convention

13. The Convention • Presidential candidates have been nominated by the convention method in every election since 1832. • Seating the Delegates. • Convention Activities. • Speech making • Platform formulation • Presidential Balloting • Acceptance Speeches • Becoming less relevant

14. Campaign Finance Terminology Hard money Soft money Air war Ground war Political Action Committees (PACs) Harry & Louise Issue Ad 527 Groups (or Committees) If Parents Acted Like Bush

15. Regulations • Hatch Act (1939) • Federal Election Campaign Act (1974) • McCain-Feingold (2002)

16. (Historical) Legal Regulations on Registration • Poll Tax • Literacy Test • Requiring re-registration at periodic intervals • Purging for nonvoting • Residency requirements • Closing date for registration • Office hours for registration may be limited to regular business hours • Registration offices can be limited or widely available • Deputy registrars • Absentee registration

17. Wolfinger & Rosenstone’s Hypotheses • Hypotheses • Consequential restrictions • Reforms suggested

18. Voter turnout

19. Electoral Law • Most states require registration • Elections occur on a Tuesday • Votes must be cast in the assigned precinct during polling hours • Absentee ballots need to be requested in advance • Elections are SMDP

20. Machinery of Elections

21. How voters decide • Socio-economic and demographic factors • Education • Income/socio-economic status • Religion • Ethnicity/Race* • Gender • Age • Region • Psychological factors • Party identification* • Perception of the candidates in terms of image and trustworthiness • Issue preferences, especially on economic issues

22. Party ID measured on a seven-point scale

23. Cartogram of Electoral College Votes

25. The Electoral Map – 10/15 (Time)

26. 2004 Results – State Level Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

27. 2004 Results – State (pop adj) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

28. 2004 Results – State (EC adj) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

29. 2004 Results – County Level Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

30. 2004 Results – County Level (pop adj) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

31. 2004 Results – County (intensity) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

32. 2004 Results – County (intensity, pop) Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/

33. Caveat: Sometimes the polls are wrong