Climate Change, Environment and Health: A Challenge for us All

1. Climate Change, Environment and Health: A Challenge for us All Regional Ministerial Meeting Regional Forum on Environment and Health in Southeast and East Asian Countries Bangkok, August 9th 2007 Sir Gordon Conway Professor of International Development, Imperial College, London Chief Scientist, Department for International Development, UK

2. What we know and don’t know What are the Impacts? How do we get ‘Health’ and ‘Environment’ to work together? How do we build Resilience? Climate Change, Environment and Health

3. What we know

4. Global mean temperatures are increasing (Source: Met Office, UK)

5. The Greenhouse Effect

6. Relative warming by greenhouse gasescurrent emissions, over next 100 years Methane 24% Carbon dioxide 63% NOTE: Tropospheric ozone not included Nitrous oxide 10% Others 3% Source: IPCC

7. Where are the Greenhouse Gases coming from?

8. Source: Kintisch, 2007, Science, 316, 536-537

9. For business as usualthe estimate is a global warmingof 2 - 4.5 ºCfifty years from now Source: IPCC

10. What we don’t knowThere are possible Tipping Points

11. Tipping points • a breakdown of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation • the disintegration of the Greenland ice sheet • release of carbon from deep sea methane hydrates

14. Glacier Melt China - Gongga Snow Mountains are home to over 70 glaciers in western Sichuan Province Source: China Daily

15. Sea Level Rise 1 – 6 metres 1 Metre 6 Metres

16. What will Happen in Near Term? • It will get warmer (colder in some places) • It will get wetter, but also more drought in some regions • More intense tropical cyclones • Higher sea levels • More storm surges • More Variation and Extreme Events

17. Mean seasonal changes 2080-2100 vs. 1980-2000 under the A1B scenario. December - February June- August Source: Met Office, UK Simulated with UK Met Office “HadGEM1” climate model.

18. Mean seasonal changes 2080-2100 vs. 1980-2000 under the A1B scenario. December - February June - August Source: Met Office, UK Simulated with “HadGEM1” climate model

19. La Niña El Niño Source: NOAA)

20. Effects on Biodiversity • Approximately 20-30% of plant and animal species are likely to be at increased risk of extinction if increases in global average temperature exceed 1.5-2.5oC. • ~ 1 million species Source: IPCC

21. Effects on Ecosystems • Deforestation due to Drought and People creates: • Less biodiversity • Less rainfall • More soil erosion • More floods • Emergence of zoonotic diseases • Etc. • More greenhouse gases – more drought • A Vicious Circle

22. The Effects on Health

23. Direct Effects Heat Stress

24. Mortality and Temperature

25. Direct & Indirect Effects Drought

26. Area of land in drought since 1950 Hadley Centre, Met Office, UK

28. Direct & Indirect Effects Flooding, Storms & Sea Level Rises

29. Impacts of Floods • Immediate deaths and injuries • Non specific increases in mortality • Infectious diseases • Exposure to toxic substances • Mental health effects including suicide • Increased demands on health systems

30. Indirect Effects Gastrointestinal Diseases

31. Bangladesh: Cholera and Sea Surface Temperature Source; Colwell, Science 1996

32. Indirect Effects Vector Borne Diseases

33. Climate Change & Malaria • Effects on the mosquito • Development rates • Survival • Biting frequency • Effects on the parasite • Incubation period

34. Malaria in East African Highlands Kericho Western Kenya Temp +0.5°C since 1980 Pascual, Ahumeda, Chaves, Rodo & Bouma 2006, PNAS, 103, 5829-5834

35. Climate Change and Dengue 1990 2085 Probability : from 0.0 Deep Blue to 1.0 Deep Red Source: Hales et al Lancet 2002

36. How do we get Health and Environment to work together?

37. Problems Problems Ministry Environment Ministry Health

38. A significant shared Problem Ministry Environment Ministry Health • Inter-ministerial Committee • Joint working group – • Chief Scientists and Economists • Advisory committee on the problem • Parliamentary oversight committee • Presidential, Prime Minister, Cabinet Decree/Decision

39. Significant Shared Problems • Climate Change • Urban Air Pollution • Zoonotic Diseases – avian flu, Nipah virus • etc

40. The Nipah Virus El Niño Deforestation Burning Flying Foxes Orchards Pigs Humans Treatment Vaccines

41. Intelligent Questions • Ask the right questions • Set them in the appropriate context • Know who to ask • Interpret the answers • Apply the answers appropriately

42. How do we Build Resilienceto Stress and Shock?

43. STRESS or SHOCK Development Countermeasures

44. Countermeasures • Institutional • Land use zoning, river management, warning systems • Physical • Cyclone shelters, levees, building codes • Environmental • Mangrove belts, tree shelterbelts • Agricultural • Crop & livestock diversity, drought and flood resistant varieties • Health • Disease surveillance, vaccination, vector control • Livelihood • Income diversity, rural-urban linkages

45. STRESS or SHOCK Development Anticipate Prevent Recover Survey Mitigate Restore

46. Resilient Livelihoodsone of the best defences against stress or shock is to diversify the livelihood

50. Resilience • Integrate into development policy and planning at every level • Involve all sectors • Government ministries & agencies • NGOs • Private Sector • Academia and research institutions