1 / 34

Vulnerability and Climate Change - The Development Challenge Phil O’Keefe

Vulnerability and Climate Change - The Development Challenge Phil O’Keefe The Geographical Association, Newcastle, 2008. OVERVIEW. The political economy of humanitarianism Climate Change Key Questions Exogenous and endogenous pressures Location of study area Methodology Key Hypothesis

xue
Download Presentation

Vulnerability and Climate Change - The Development Challenge Phil O’Keefe

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Vulnerability and Climate Change - The Development Challenge Phil O’Keefe The Geographical Association, Newcastle, 2008

  2. OVERVIEW • The political economy of humanitarianism • Climate Change • Key Questions • Exogenous and endogenous pressures • Location of study area • Methodology • Key Hypothesis • Important preliminary results • Agricultural extensification, intensification and off-farm income • How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change?

  3. The Political Economy of Humanitarianism • 1990-2005 from 500 million to 8 billion • 20 million refugees, 40 million IDPs • From natural disasters to complex emergencies • Reorganisation of the UN system • Growth of international NGOs • A need for pre-disaster planning

  4. Climate Change Challenges • IPPC 4 - Variability • Stern - Project to Programme • Post Kyoto • Carbon footprint negotiations within and between countries

  5. CLIMATE CHANGE • Synoptic Change; large scale system change -Global movement of ITCZ; high pressure system that dominates African weather -Regional impact of El Nino(e.g.1997); movement of the southern ocean oscillation -Deglaciation of Kilimanjaro but competing explanations; no ice in 25 years

  6. Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

  7. Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

  8. Source: URT 2003

  9. Source: Kilimanjaro Meteorological Office

  10. HOW WILL CLIMATE CHANGE AFFECT AGRICULTURAL SMALL HOLDERS ON KILIMANJARO? KEY QUESTION: • What is vulnerability? • What is a bad year? • What is more important; climate change or climate variability? • What are the pressures? • Climate Change • Changing commodity prices • Government policy • What are the coping mechanism? • Can agricultural intensification decrease vulnerability? • Can agricultural extensification decrease vulnerability? • What is the role of off-farm income?

  11. WHAT IS VULNERABILITY? The extent to which a natural or social system is susceptible to sustaining damage from climate change, and is a function of the magnitude of climate change, the sensitivity of the system to changes in climate and the ability to adapt the system to changes in climate

  12. WHAT IS MORE IMPORTANT; CLIMATE CHANGE OR VARIABILITY? Climate change/ Climate variability Declining commodity prices Government policy • Population increase • Deforestation • Fire risk • Subsistence food insecurity • Change of subsistence food crop Exogenous Pressures • Climate variability used as proxy for climate change • Therefore reducing vulnerability to climate variability is decreasing risk to climate change Endogenous Pressures

  13. LOCATION OF STUDY • Tanzania • Mt Kilimanjaro • Kilimanjaro region • Moshi rural and Rombo district

  14. ROMBO PROFILE Location: 37°34E to 37°38E at 3’11S

  15. METHODOLOGY • 2 profiles from south to east on Kilimanjaro • Built on Rufiji study • Questionnaire modification • Pilot survey • Enumerator Training • Enumerator monitoring • Data entry checking system • 1,016 Household surveys completed over 3 weeks • (Map or diagram)

  16. KEY HYPOTHESES • Mark: How vulnerable are the Chagga to climate change? • Paul: How are capitals accumulated on Mt. Kilimanjaro • Zahra: What are the gender aspects of food security on Mt. Kilimanjaro? • Matt: What are the government responses to famine?

  17. OTHER DATA SOURCES • Secondary survey • Key informant interviews • Physical asset checklist • Structured observation • Transect walks • Theoretical context setting secondary data • Location specific secondary data

  18. ACCESS TO WATER SOURCES AS VULNERABILITY INDICATOR

  19. LEVEL OF EDUCATION RELATED TO INFORMATION Differentiation of women’s coping mechanism by age

  20. DIVISION OF LABOUR IN COFFEE PRODUCTION

  21. CAN AGRICULTURAL EXTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY? • Forest limits – national park • Bush Savannah no longer exists • Large scale farming constraints • Maize-bean shambas on lowlands due to availability of water • Finger Millet – Cow peas extreme drought adaptation, illustrates the limits of cultivation without irrigation • Population increase and landuse planning/ownership limit extensification opportunities

  22. CAN AGRICULTURAL INTENSIFICATION DECREASE VULNERABILITY? • Intensifying by cash cropping or diversifying subsistence food production • Is coffee rehabilitation possible?

  23. WHAT IS THE ROLE OF OFF-FARM INCOME? • Options of movement -Local -Regional -National • Importance of transport • Importance of education

  24. What is the meaning of this case study? • Adaptation is evolution • Coping mechanisms suggest involution • The need for post Kyoto to be adaptation focused • The need for pre-disaster planning

More Related