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NAS Operational Analyses and Challenges to Modeling the Future

NAS Operational Analyses and Challenges to Modeling the Future. Vice President Vicki Cox - Acting. Strategy Office. Performance Analysis Office. Systems Engineering Office. International Office. Technology Development Office. William J. Hughes Technical Center. Aviation

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NAS Operational Analyses and Challenges to Modeling the Future

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  1. NAS Operational Analyses andChallenges to Modeling the Future

  2. Vice President Vicki Cox - Acting Strategy Office Performance Analysis Office Systems Engineering Office International Office Technology Development Office William J. Hughes Technical Center Aviation Research & Development Office NAS Weather Office Operational Evolution Plan Office Business Outlook Strategy Development & Analysis Forecasts & Operations Analysis Operations Planning

  3. ATO-P Strategic Analysis Capability NAS Strategy Simulator ATO-P Forecast Tool ATO NAS Performance Tools ACES/NASPAC/etc ATO Strategy and NAS Performance

  4. Why have Trajectory Based Forecast? • Keeps lots of O.R. analysts in business! • Drives focus on flows and en route constraints • Helps revenue estimates

  5. Annual NAS Traffic Change • Traffic increased 5.9% from CY00 to CY05.

  6. Center % Traffic Change CY00-CY05 20% 18% 15% 13% 12% 12% 11% 9% 10% 8% 8% 8% 8% 8% % Change 6% 6% 5% 5% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% -1% -2% -3% -5% ZTL ZID ZLA ZJX ZAB ZAN ZAU ZLC ZSE ZDV ZDC ZHU ZKC ZOA ZNY ZOB ZBW ZFW ZMA ZME ZMP Center Level Changes

  7. User Class % Change CY00-CY05 13% 9.73% 9.06% 8% 3.40% 1.79% 3% %Change -2% -7% -8.91% -12% GA JET GA Piston GA Turbo Total GA Commercial User Class Changes

  8. Regional vs. Other Commercial Traffic % ChangeCY00-CY05 55% 46.91% 45% 35% % Change 25% 15% 5% -1.93% -5% Regional Carriers Other Commercial Regional Carrier Changes

  9. Commercial Mainline vs. LCC

  10. Independence Air at ZDC Total ZDC Operations 350000 330000 310000 290000 270000 Independence Air Operations 250000 230000 210000 190000 170000 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Oct-05 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06

  11. Flight Level Workload Changes Traffic By Altitude (CY00-CY05) 120% 110% 100% 80% 60% % Change 40% 20% 15% 20% 0% -1% -20% LOW_ATL HIGH_ALT SUPER_HIGH TOTAL HIGH Low: <280 High: >= 280 and <= 390 Super High: >390

  12. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 % Change CY’00-CY’05 Low Altitude Workload Changes(By Center)

  13. -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 % Change CY’00-CY’05 High Altitude Workload Changes(By Center)

  14. Why have Seasonal Forecasting? • Demand • Seasonal schedules • Peak vs. Low traffic months • Seasonal impacts on workload • Operational Constraints • Seasonal constraints • NAS delay procedures

  15. Winter Spring Break Spring Break Summer Summer Seasonal Schedules Data: MIA (ASPM)

  16. % Difference in Traffic Volume CY05 (Peak Month vs. Low Month) 70% 60% 60% 56% 50% 39% 40% 33% % Difference 31% 30% 27% 25% 22% 21% 21% 20% 19% 17% 20% 16% 16% 16% 16% 15% 15% 14% 13% 10% 0% ZID ZJX ZTL ZSE ZMP ZME ZLC ZDC ZHU ZKC ZOB ZAN ZDV ZNY ZAU ZLA ZFW ZAB ZMA ZOA ZBW Peak vs. Low Traffic Volume

  17. ZMA vs. ZMP Operations 200000 180000 160000 140000 Operations 120000 100000 80000 60000 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05 Seasonal Impacts on Workload

  18. Importance of Seasonal Forecasting • Demand • Seasonal schedules • Peak vs. Low traffic months • Seasonal impacts on workload • Operational Constraints • Seasonal constraints • NAS delay procedures

  19. % Late Flights OEP35 35% 30% 25% Late Flights (%) 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Jul-05 Oct-02 Jan-00 Feb-04 May-01 Seasonal Change in Constraints

  20. IMC Operations and Conditions By Season 30% 27% 26% 25% 20% 17% 16% 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 10% 5% %IMC FLIGHTS %IMC PERIODS 0% WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL Seasonal Constraints

  21. Convective Weather Index 300 250 200 CWI 150 100 50 0 WINTER SPRING SUMMER FALL Seasonal Constraints

  22. Modeling Challenges • Where delay is taken vs. cause of delay • - En route congestion • Convective weather case • Annualizing results • Interconnectivity of delay • Uncertainty in demand

  23. Where Delay is Taken

  24. OEP35 Gate. Dep. Delay vs. OEP35 Gate Arrival Delay 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Gate vs. Total Delay • How much is driven by en route/convective congestion? 18 16 14 Delay (Minutes) Avg. Gate Dep. Delay Avg. Gate Arrival Delay Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Sep-00 Sep-01 Sep-02 Sep-03 Sep-04 Sep-05 May-00 May-01 May-02 May-03 May-04 May-05

  25. MIA Arrivals vs. Gate Delay

  26. MIA Gate Arrival Delay vs. OEP 35 Gate Arrival Delay 18 16 MIA Gate Arr Delay 14 OEP35 Gate Arrival Delay 12 10 Delay (Min.) 8 6 4 2 0 -2 Jul-00 Jul-01 Jul-02 Jul-03 Jul-04 Jul-05 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Apr-00 Apr-01 Apr-02 Apr-03 Apr-04 Apr-05 Oct-00 Oct-01 Oct-02 Oct-03 Oct-04 Interconnectivity of Delay

  27. Interconnectivity of Delay

  28. Forecast Uncertainties

  29. Summary • Current FAA forecasts provide annual activity levels • Current FAA forecasts assume aviation business • models stay the same • Actual demand varies seasonally, daily, and hourly • Aviation industry is fundamentally changing • Understanding these changes is essential to preparing for the future

  30. Current Demand Forecasting

  31. Main Line % Change CY00-CY05 100% 84% 80% 56% 60% 40% 29% 20% 8% 0% % Change 0% -6% -20% -12% -19% -20% -26% -40% -33% -40% -60% DELTA United ALOHA SPIRIT ALASKA MIDWEST HAWAIIAN AMERICAN U.S. Airways NORTHWEST CONTINENTAL Total Mainline Mainline Legacy Carriers

  32. Low Cost Carriers • Independence Air began flying in 2004.

  33. December 2005

  34. February 2005

  35. FY 2006 Category A&B Operational Errors(Counts & Rates) * FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated activity counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month

  36. February 2005

  37. February 2005

  38. FY 2006 Category A&B Runway Incursions (Counts & Rates) * FY 2006 Rates may contain estimated operation counts. The Rate is cumulative from month to month

  39. February 2005

  40. OE: FY06 Critical Acquisitions on Schedule and Budget • FY06 85% Acquisition Target • Cost Target: Ensure 85% of major baseline Capital Investment programs are within 10% of budget. • Schedule Target: Ensure 85% of major Capital Investment programs meet established activity milestone schedule dates • Status • Current FY06 Cost targets are within their 10% budget thresholds. • 100 % of the 85% Schedule milestones are on schedule. • Nine (9) of the 39 Final milestones (23%) have been completed on or ahead of schedule through the December reporting period. • Eight Interim milestones (57%) have also been completed through December • 39 milestones are being tracked against 31 programs for the FY06 85% Acquisition Goal • Fourteen (14) interim milestones are also tracked and not included as part of the 85% Acquisition Performance Goal Metric • A total of 53 milestones will be statused each month (the 39 + the 14)

  41. OE: Critical Acquisitions on Schedule and Budget • Four Final milestones are due in January.

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