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Martin G. Schultz ICG-II Forschungszentrum Jülich and the RETRO team

MPI-M. LSCE. UiO. KNMI. IUP-B. NILU. ETH-Z. FMI. TNO. UCamb. MPI-BGC. ISA. Results from the RETRO Project ( RE analysis of the TRO pospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years). Past trends in atmospheric composition. Martin G. Schultz ICG-II Forschungszentrum Jülich

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Martin G. Schultz ICG-II Forschungszentrum Jülich and the RETRO team

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  1. MPI-M LSCE UiO KNMI IUP-B NILU ETH-Z FMI TNO UCamb MPI-BGC ISA Results from the RETRO Project(REanalysis of the TROpospheric chemical composition over the past 40 years) Past trends in atmospheric composition Martin G. Schultz ICG-II Forschungszentrum Jülich and the RETRO team funded by the EU under contract EVK2-CT-2002-00170

  2. Motivation “The primary objective of RETRO is to understand, detect and assess long-term changes and interannual variability of the tropospheric chemical composition over the last 40 years, thereby providing the essential framework within which to understand possible future changes.“ from RETRO description of work

  3. What has changed? US statistical data http://kclibrary.nhmccd.edu/

  4. Anthropogenic Emissions NOx 1960 NOx 2000

  5. RETRO Emissions traffic wildfires ships traffic residential residential power generation natural industrial comb. CO NOx

  6. Are emission trends estimated correctly? GOME annual changes in tropospheric NO2 1996 - 2002 GOME NO2 columns (A. Richter) from the RETRO NOx inventory

  7. Fire emissions: Trends & Variability

  8. RETRO models • 5 global models participated: • 2 chemistry-GCMs • 3 CTMs • resolution 33 or better • all models used ERA-40 data • different variables (see below) • analysed versus forecasted fields • all models used RETRO emissions • differences for biogenic emissions and injection height • stratospheric boundary conditions differ 3 models (2 chemistry-GCMs and 1 CTM) ran the complete 40-year period

  9. RETRO Models (2)

  10. NOAA ESRL stations – CO Anomalies 6-months running averages RETRO models Niwot Ridge Alert Ascension Mace Head Barrow Cape Grim obs. LMDz TM4 ECHAM5-MOZ

  11. Tropos. ozone budget 2000 ECHAM5-MOZ results

  12. Ozone burden Ozone burden trend: about 10% difference between chemical and meteorological tropopause Correlation R=0.987 Increase about 20% over 41 years Δ=1.6Tg/yr met. tropopause Δ=1.2Tg/yr Ozone chem. tropopause Δ=0.9Tg/yr Δ=0.5Tg/yr Ozone from stratosphere

  13. Tropospheric ozone burdens CO NOx strat. ozone humidity

  14. Modell-Intercomparison Near surface CO 1960 2000 LMDz INCA ECHAM5 MOZ

  15. The OH story ? RETRO model results JJA 1997 (first runs, 4 models) Consistency of model results: zonal mean OH (summer)

  16. RETRO scenario calculations

  17. Model sensitivities: ECHAM5-MOZ HNO3-Concentration at 500 hPa: Summer (JAS) 5-Year Means Year 2000 SST only (ACCENT) RETRO-run (ERA-40) ACCENT-run (ERA-40) ERA-40 (ACCENT)

  18. 1998 (hot) vs. 1976 (cold) March July Temperature change [K] Humidity change [%] red = wetter

  19. 1998 vs 1976: Surface ozone changes March July Emissions Meteorology Emissions: both simulations with 1976 meteorology Meteorology: both runs with 1998 emissions

  20. Ozone temperature relationship Station Hohenpeissenberg (annual mean values)

  21. Ozone temperature relationship Station Hohenpeissenberg (summertime values)

  22. The role of transport (TFHTAP) MOZART model highest spread 50% spread 50% MOZART model more in-line with others spread 50% spread 50% SR5 experiment: full chemistry simulation (delta-CO scaled with factor 5) BL mixing Europe TP1 experiment: passive CO tracer with fixed uniform lifetime BL mixing Europe Diagnostic: CO from EU over EU; ratio 0-2 km / surface

  23. ERA-40 artifacts from Hagemann et al., 2006

  24. Hydrological cycle Land Water

  25. Trends in lightning NOx almost no correlation for annual mean lightning NOx!

  26. Conclusions • Global tropospheric ozone budget changes driven by emissions • Interannual variability driven by meteorology Too simple?

  27. Acknowledgements • Sebastian Rast, Stefan Hagemann, MPI-Meteorologie, Hamburg • Sophie Szopa, Didier Hauglustaine, LSCE, Gif-sur-Yvette • Twan van Noije, KNMI, De Bilt • Stig Dalsøren, U. Oslo • Nick Savage, U. Cambridge • Christina Schnadt, Johannes Staehelin, ETH Zürich • Tinus Pulles, Maarten van het Bolscher, TNO, Apeldoorn • Andreas Richter, Folkard Wittrock, U. Bremen • Jean-Marie Gregoire, JRC, Ispra • Guido van der Werf, VU, Amsterdam • Heiner Geiß, ICG-II, FZ Jülich • European Commission • and many others…

  28. GEMS: first near-realtime forecasts

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