1 / 4

Psychology of Weather Prediction

Dive into the psychology behind weather prediction, uncovering how forecasters' biases and tendencies impact forecast accuracy. Explore key psychological elements like overcompensation, machismo, and insecurity. Learn how to achieve professional detachment and improve forecasting precision.

victoriabenjamin
Download Presentation

Psychology of Weather Prediction

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Psychology of Weather Prediction • The psychological element is crucial. Must strive to be mentally neutral about forecasts. Think like Mr. Spock(or Data) • In some ways, meteorologists are the last people you want to be making forecasts, because we love interesting weather and tend to forecast it too frequently. • Sometimes forecasters with great technical knowledge have poor performance because of psychological reasons!

  2. Psychology of Weather Prediction • When many things are happening at once, meteorologists often focus on one of them to the detriment of others. • Humans like conceptual models and often hold on to them even when reality is at odds. • Humans are deterministic animals and often push uncertainty away when we shouldn’t.

  3. Major Psychological Elements • LOVE Meteorologists love interesting weather and tend to overforecast it • OVERCOMPENSATION We tend to excessively compensate for previous error. This can produce a classic sinusoidal error evolution. • MACHO There is a tendency to go for extreme or improbable situations. If you hit, it is like meteorological cocaine high! • INSECURE Going with MOS or NWS forecast or fearing to deviate from them substantially.

  4. The Bottom Line • Forecasting is very important and critically affects people’s lives. It requires professional detachment.

More Related