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Craig Zamuda, Ph.D. Office of Policy U.S. Department of Energy Craig.zamuda@hq.doe

This chapter explores the impact of extreme weather events and climate change on the nation's energy system, highlighting vulnerabilities and the need for resilience. It discusses potential impacts, projected changes in energy expenditures, and the interdependence of critical infrastructure systems.

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Craig Zamuda, Ph.D. Office of Policy U.S. Department of Energy Craig.zamuda@hq.doe

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  1. Chapter 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Craig Zamuda, Ph.D. Office of Policy U.S. Department of Energy Craig.zamuda@hq.doe.gov Water, Energy and Environment Committee American Council of Engineers February 25, 2019

  2. Key Messages for Energy Chapter 4 Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Nationwide Impacts on Energy Changes in Energy System Affect Vulnerabilities Improving Energy System Resilience

  3. Key Message #1 4 Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand The Nation’s energy system is already affected by extreme weather events, and due to climate change, it is projected to be increasingly threatened by more frequent and longer-lasting power outages affecting critical energy infrastructure and creating fuel availability and demand imbalances. The reliability, security, and resilience of the energy system underpin virtually every sector of the U.S. economy. Cascading impacts on other critical sectors could affect economic and national security. Nationwide Impacts on Energy

  4. Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Fig. 4.1: Potential Impacts from Extreme Weather and Climate Change Extreme weather and climate change can potentially impact all components of the Nation’s energy system, from fuel (petroleum, coal, and natural gas) production and distribution to electricity generation, transmission, and demand. Source: adapted from DOE 2013.23

  5. All Regions of the US Energy System Vulnerable to Extreme Weather and Changing Climatic Conditions • Ice and Wind Storms: Disrupt transmission & distribution Cooling water intake or discharge too hot: Power plants shutdown or power down • Lower water levels Reduced hydropower • Intense storms: Disrupted generation, transmission & distribution, and oil and gas operations • Wildfires: Damaged transmission lines • Water restrictions due to drought Limiting power, oil and gas production • Lower river levels: Restricted barge transportation of coal and petroleum products • Flooding: Impacts on inland power plants

  6. Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Fig. 4.2: Projected Changes in Energy Expenditures This figure shows county-level median projected increases in energy expenditures for average 2080–2099 impacts under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). Impacts are changes relative to no additional change in climate. Color indicates the magnitude of increases in energy expenditures in median projection; outline color indicates level of agreement across model projections (thin white outline, inner 66% of projections disagree in sign; no outline, more than 83% of projections agree in sign; black outline, more than 95% agree in sign; thick gray outline, state borders). Data were unavailable for Alaska, Hawai‘i and the U.S.-Affiliated Pacific Islands, and the U.S. Caribbean regions. Source: Hsiang et al. 2017.14

  7. Why Do We Care? Trends for U.S. Billion Dollar Weather-Related Disaster Events - Types by Year (Source NOAA 2018)

  8. Annual Costs of Power Interruptions Congressional Research Service: $25-70 billion. Campbell, R. J., 2012. Weather-Related Power Outages and Electric System Resiliency. Congressional Research Service. Executive Office of the President: $18-33 billion. Executive Office of the President, 2013a. Economic Benefits of Increasing Electric Grid Resilience to Weather Outages, Washington D.C.: The White House. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory: $44 billion. LaCommare, K., Eto, J.H., Dunn, L.D., Sohn, M.D., 2018. Improving the estimated cost of sustained power interruptions to electricity customers. Energy 153 (2018) 1038e1047

  9. Key Message #2 4 Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Changes in energy technologies, markets, and policies are affecting the energy system’s vulnerabilities to climate change and extreme weather. Some of these changes increase reliability and resilience, while others create additional vulnerabilities. Changes include the following: natural gas is increasingly used as fuel for power plants; renewable resources are becoming increasingly cost competitive with an expanding market share; and a resilient energy supply is increasingly important as telecommunications, transportation, and other critical systems are more interconnected than ever. Changes in Energy System Affect Vulnerabilities

  10. Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Fig. 4.3: Electricity Generation from Selected Fuels This figure shows electric power generation from different fuel sources and technologies. Since 2010, the declining market share from coal has been filled largely by natural gas and, to a lesser extent, renewables. Renewables include: conventional hydroelectric, geothermal, wood, wood waste, biogenic municipal waste, landfill gas, other biomass, solar, and wind power. Source: EIA/AEO 2018.59

  11. Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Fig. 4.4: Examples of Critical Infrastructure Interdependencies The interdependence of critical infrastructure systems increases the importance of electricity resilience, as disruptions to energy services are projected to affect other sectors. Shown above is a representative set of connections, and the complex relationships are analogous to other systems (Ch. 17: Complex Systems). A more complete listing of these linkages can be found at DOE.2Source: adapted from DOE 2017.2

  12. Key Message #3 4 Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Actions are being taken to enhance energy security, reliability, and resilience with respect to the effects of climate change and extreme weather. This progress occurs through improved data collection, modeling, and analysis to support resilience planning; private and public–private partnerships supporting coordinated action; and both development and deployment of new, innovative energy technologies for adapting energy assets to extreme weather hazards. Although barriers exist, opportunities remain to accelerate the pace, scale, and scope of investments in energy systems resilience. Improving Energy System Resilience

  13. Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Fig. 4.5: Energy Sector Resilience Solutions Solutions are being deployed in the energy sector to enhance resilience to extreme weather and climate impacts across a spectrum of energy generation technologies, infrastructure, and fuel types. The figure illustrates resilience investment opportunities addressing specific extreme weather threats, as well as broader resilience actions that include grid modernization and advanced planning and preparedness.

  14. Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand General Observations on Gaps and Opportunities As engineers-your challenge is to design cost effective resilience energy infrastructure that can operate today and over the - Collect and share infrastructure damage and cost data after extreme weather events to assess the cost-effectiveness of system hardening measures. - Increase investments in energy system resilience by leveraging existing federal funding authorities (FEMA Section 406, HUD CDBG, USDA-RUS, etc.) - Support consistent design codes and standards that drive technological development and deployment for a resilient energy system. - Develop industry accepted standards for addressing magnitude and probability of future extreme weather events. ions that can be improved incrementally as conditions evolve. For example, the design and construction of a flood wall that can be expanded over time. Additional opportunities: - Need to collect and share infrastructure damage and cost data after extreme weather events to assess the cost-effectiveness of system hardening measures. - Increase investments in energy system resilience by leveraging existing federal funding authorities. - Support consistent design codes and standards that drive technological development and deployment for a resilient energy system. - Develop industry accepted standards for addressing probability of future extreme weather events. As engineers-your challenge is to design cost effective resilience energy infrastructure that can operate today and over the lifetime of the asset. Where possible, identify adaptive design resilience solutions that can be improved incrementally as conditions and risk information evolve (e.g., the design and construction of a flood wall that can be expanded over time.)

  15. Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Key Takeaways • The energy sector is already experiencing significant impacts from extreme weather, and a changing climate may only increase the frequency and magnitude of these risks to the Nation’s energy system, economy and security. • While resilience investments are underway, the pace, scale and scope of these investments needs to be enhanced. • Challenges that must be addressed include the need to: • Make decisions in the face of uncertainty; • View energy resiliency holistically given the interdependencies with other sectors; • Take an all-hazards approach (i.e., climate, extreme weather, cyber, physical threats); • Improve cost-benefit analysis; • Plan now to build, and build back, better.

  16. Chapter Author Team 4 Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand Federal Coordinating Lead Author Craig D. Zamuda, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Policy Chapter Lead Craig D. Zamuda, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Policy Chapter Authors Daniel E. Bilello, National Renewable Energy Laboratory Guenter Conzelmann, Argonne National Laboratory Ellen Mecray, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Ann Satsangi, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy Vincent Tidwell, Sandia National Laboratories Brian J. Walker, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Review Editor Sara C. Pryor, Cornell University

  17. Acknowledgments 4 Ch. 4 | Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand USGCRP Coordinators Natalie Bennett, Adaptation and Assessment Analyst Christopher W. Avery, Senior Manager

  18. Zamuda, C., D.E. Bilello, G. Conzelmann, E. Mecray, A. Satsangi, V. Tidwell, and B.J. Walker, 2018: Energy Supply, Delivery, and Demand. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II [Reidmiller, D.R., C.W. Avery, D.R. Easterling, K.E. Kunkel, K.L.M. Lewis, T.K. Maycock, and B.C. Stewart (eds.)]. U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH4 https://nca2018.globalchange.gov/chapter/energy

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