1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page

1. 1. FY08 GOES-R3 Project Proposal Title Page • Title: GOES-R3 Fire Detection, Monitoring, and Characterization • Project Type: Product improvement and utilization • Status: New • Duration: 3 years • Leads: • Chris Schmidt • Other Participants: • Shobha Kondragunta (NOAA/NESDIS STAR), NRL-Monterey, FNMOC, EPA, hazards monitoring and assessment community, IGOS GOFC GOLD, UMD-College Park • Elaine Prins (UW-Madison Consultant)

2. 2. Project Summary • Assist in creating improved fire hot spot simulations and perform case studies to evaluate the impact of sensor characteristics. • Investigate expanded multiple-channel approach for fire detection and characterization. • Explore ways to exploit high temporal data for fire detection and monitoring. • Examine potential of GLM lightning data for fire detection and confidence determination. • Further investigate similarities/differences between GOES/MODIS/SEVIRI (etc.) fire detection and characterization (FRP) and possible data fusion techniques. • Explore different techniques to address/correct for atmospheric attenuation, surface emissivity, and solar reflectivity. • Participate in the development/implementation of fire cal/val approach.

3. 3. Motivation/Justification • Supports NOAA Mission Goal(s): Climate, Weather and Water, Commerce and Transportation • The proposed risk reduction activities ensure enhanced future fire detection, monitoring and characterization for hazards applications, climate change, land-cover/land-use change, air quality, fire emissions modeling and data assimilation. • ABI sampling and re-gridding techniques and protocol for flagging saturated detectors were identified as a high-risk area by the AWG. The proposed effort will further investigate the impact of these issues on fire detection and characterization. • AWG fire cal/val plan calls for validation using higher resolution instruments. The proposed cal/val development effort addresses this need. • Sub-pixel retrieval of fire characteristics may require more sophisticated techniques to account for atmospheric attenuation, surface emissivity, and solar reflectivity than currently used with a look-up table approach. The proposed research will investigate new techniques that can be applied within the time frame of current refresh and latency rates. • Proposed GOES/MODIS investigations address the capability for future integration with NPOESS VIIRS fire products for enhanced merged fire products. • Each of the proposed tasks addresses GOES-R TAC guidance or issues highlighted in the GOES-R3 program plan.

4. 4. Methodology • CIMSS will work with the CIMSS and CIRA proxy team to create improved fire hot spot simulations and perform case studies to evaluate the impact of sub-pixel aggregation, sub-pixel detector saturation, sampling/regridding, etc. • The current GOES WF_ABBA uses the visible, 3.9 and 10.7 µm bands for fire detection/characterization. Studies have shown the advantages of using the 2.2 µm band as well, especially at night. Furthermore ABI does not have a 10.7 µm band, but rather the 10.35 and 11.2 µm bands. Although the 10.35 µm band is more conducive for surface monitoring, a combination of these bands will need to be used, since the 10.35 will saturate for large fires. • CIMSS will explore ways to exploit both high temporal data and temporal/diurnal climatologies for improved initial fire detection for early warning applications and to reduce false alarms. • CIMSS will examine the potential of GLM lightning data for improved fire detection in cloudy situations and reduction in false alarms. Initial efforts will focus on utilization of NLDN data as a test-bed. • CIMSS will continue investigating similarities/differences between GOES/MODIS/SEVIRI (etc.) fire detection and characterization (FRP) and possible data fusion techniques. Recent comparisons and validation of GOES/MODIS fire products show the advantages of a combined geo/leo product. • One of the largest sources of error for sub-pixel characterization involves corrections for atmospheric attenuation, surface emissivity, and solar reflectivity. CIMSS will investigate new techniques that can be applied within the time constraints for refresh and latency requirements. • CIMSS will participate in studies with UMD-College Park to develop/implement fire cal/val techniques using higher resolution instruments.

5. 5. Summary of Previous Results • These results represent the first year activities with GOES-R3 funding. • Initial effort focused on simulation of GOES-12 Imager and GOES-R ABI data from higher spatial resolution MODIS data to better understand the differences between current and future geostationary fire detection and characterization capabilities (PSF, oversampling, saturation, etc). • Developed technique to simulate ABI from MODIS using appropriate PSF and renavigation into GOES-R projection. Created 3 case studies in unique biomes and at different viewing angles (Southern CA, Central America, South America). • Investigated GOES FRP versus Dozier and initial comparison with MODIS FRP. • Investigated the application of the UW Baseline emissivity dataset as a replacement for a static look-up table approach.

6. Example UW-Madison MODIS Simulated Fire Proxy Data For Central America: April 24, 2004  MODIS data flipped, renavigated, appropriate PSF applied

7. 6. Expected Outcomes • The proposed effort will lead to an improved ABI fire detection and characterization processing system using high temporal data, additional bands, and ancillary information (e.g. lightning). This is in support of GOES-R AWG implementation activities. • Case studies to evaluate the impact of sensor characteristics on fire detection and characterization will provide the necessary input for AOL TAP and MRD requests/changes to ensure successful fire detection and characterization. • Successful GOES/MODIS/SEVIRI analysis will result in a merged fire product that utilizes the advantages of both leo and geo fire monitoring to create an enhanced fire product and continues the legacy of the current GOES/MODIS fire products. • Improved techniques for addressing surface emissivity, solar reflectivity and atmospheric attenuation will result in better sub-pixel fire characterization and subsequent emission estimates for air quality applications. • There is no comprehensive database of all fire activity in the U.S. Collaborative research with UMD-College Park will result in the development of a technique to use higher resolution instruments (e.g. LANDSAT, ASTER, etc.) for cal/val. This effort builds on a current GOES activity in South America, but the ABI effort is currently unfunded.

8. Analysis of Impact of UW Baseline Fit Emissivity Database on Fire Size and Fire Radiative Power (FRP) Calculations For the CIRA Simulated Great Plains Fires Proxy Data Set • Impact on FRP calculations for all non-saturated fire pixels (excluding low possibility fire category) is a reduction of FRP by ~1.7% • Impact on fire size calculations for all non-saturated processed fires (excluding cloudy and all possible fires) is a reduction in fire size by ~7%

9. 7. Major Milestones • FY08 • October - December 2007: Provide needed input to CIRA, CIMSS for hot spot simulations in Central and South America. • April 2008: Complete first phase of GOES/MODIS/SEVIRI fire products comparison. Begin fusion studies and technique development. • June 2008: Complete fire simulation case study analysis and investigation of sensor impacts. Brief AWG and provide results to AOL TAP • September 2008: Complete high temporal data analysis and impact study for possible AWG implementation. • FY09 • November 2008: Continue collaboration with UMD-College Park on cal/val technique development for geostationary fire monitoring and expand to ABI. • March 2009: Complete first phase of study regarding new techniques to account for atmospheric, surface emissivity, and solar reflectance corrections. • April 2009: Report on geo/leo fusion technique capabilities and limitations. • August 2009: Complete first phase of expanded multi-channel approach for fire detection and characterizaton. • September 2009: Make recommendations for AWG implementation of new techniques to account for atmospheric, surface emissivity, and solar reflectance corrections. • FY10 • October 2009: Initiate fire/lightning study • April 2010: Report on multi-channel approach and make recommendations for AWG implementation. • June 2010: Complete development of cal/val technique in collaboration with UMD-College Park and make recommendation to AWG. • September 2010: Complete fire/lightning study and provide recommendations for AWG implementation.

10. 8. Funding Profile (K) • Summary of leveraged funding • The funds listed represent only those funds that are being leveraged to do multiple sensor comparisons, and cal/val development. • Implementation of techniques developed with GOES-R3 are expected to be funded through AWG.

11. 9. Expected Purchase Items • FY08 • (85K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 2 people (0.4 and 0.25) time from Jan 08 to Dec 08 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 65K • Contracts: 6K Subcontract to Elaine Prins • Software charges: N/A • Equipment: 5K for replacement Dell development workstation • Travel (2 trips: Madison – DC, Madison – GOES-R Users Conference) - 4K • Publication Charges - 5K • FY09 • (95K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 2 people (0.5 and 0.25) from Jan 09 to Dec 09 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 78K • Contracts: 5K Subcontract to Elaine Prins • Software charges: N/A • Equipment: 2K • Travel (two Madison - DC trips) - 4K • Publication Charges - 6K • FY10 • (92K): STAR CIMSS Grant for 2 people (0.5 and 0.25) from Jan 10 to Dec 10 • Personnel support (including benefits, IT charges, overhead, etc): 82K • Contracts: N/A • Software charges: N/A • Equipment: NA • Travel (two trips: Madison – DC, Madison – GOES-R Users Conference) - 4K • Publication Charges - 6K