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A comprehensive analysis of the 2016 National Senior Certificate Examination results, focusing on key targets and trends in the South African education sector. Highlights improvements in pass rates, mathematics and physical science performance, and inclusivity.
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NSLA AND BASIC EDUCATION SECTOR LEKGOTLA ANALYSIS OF THE 2016 NSC EXAMINATION RESULTS 23 January 2017
A SYSTEM ON THE RISE TIMSS 2015
NSC Examination • The education enterprise is a highly complex activity and the outcome is based on a multiplicity of factors. • Hence, the quantification of the improvements in the system is an extremely challenging task. • NSC examination is one of the most important barometers to evaluate the success of the sector. • Primary purpose of the NSC examinations is to certify learners, but it can be used to monitor trends in performance, provided we understand the cohort differences.
NSC Examination (e) In terms of Action Plan to 2019, the following three key targets are directly measured through the performance in the NSC examinations: • Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who become eligible for a Bachelor’s programme at University’; • Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Mathematics; and • Increase the number of Grade 12 learners who pass Physical Science
Youth having completed Grade 12 by province and age (2012-2014)
Overall Performance – 2015 & 2016 (Progressed Learners Included)
School Performance within different Percentage Categories 27
Schools performance within different percentage categories, 2015 - 2016 28
Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 30% level) 33
Candidates’ performance in selected subjects, 2011 – 2016 (at 40% level) 35
Physical Sciences achieved at 30% & 40% level, 2010 - 2016 38
Candidates Performance in Home Languages (at 40% & above) 2014 - 2016
Number and percentage of distinctions in the 12 Key Subjects: 2015 and 2016 38
District performance by achievement interval and province: 2016
Performance in Selected subjects (Part time): 2015 - 2016 47
Significant Gains (a)Increase in the number of candidates that wrote Mathematics (263 903 to 265 810). • The percentage of candidates that passed Mathematics increased from 49.1% to 51.1%. • The number of candidates that passed Mathematics at 40% increased by 10 034, from 2014. (d) In Mathematics 33 511 learners achieved a mark of 60% or more in the 2016 examinations. Of the increase of 1700 from 2015, 1308 are black African learners. (e) The percentage of candidates that passed Physical Science increased from 58.6% to 62% (f) The number of candidates that passed Physical Science at 40% increased by 14 012, from 2014.
Significant Gains (g) 2853 (41.9%) of the schools attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (h) 1452 (59.9%) of the schools from quintile 1-3 attained a pass percentage of 80% and above. (i) 78 878 learners from quintiles 1-3 schools qualified for admission to Bachelor Studies. This is more than the number of learners from quintiles 4 and 5. (j) 32 of the 82 districts achieved a pass rate of 80% and above. (k) The number of districts attaining a pass rate of below 50% decreased from 8 to 5.
Inclusive Basket of Criteria • Overall pass percentage • Mathematics pass percentage • Physical Sciences pass percentage • Bachelor attainment percentage • Distinction percentage • Mathematics Participation rate • Throughput rate