Desert Outlook and Options for Action

1. GEO for World Deserts Chapter 5 Outline Desert Outlook and Options for Action September 7, 2005

2. Chapter Outline • Outlook for desert development • Sustainability and human well-being in deserts • Closing remarks: options for action

3. 1. Outlook for desert development • Development scenarios: future trends for water, biodiversity and land degradation • Population dynamics and projections on resource demand • Human well-being and desert vulnerability • Driving forces for foreseen changes • Possible actions to be taken to generate desired outcomes

4. 2. Sustainability and human well-being in deserts • Determinants of well-being in deserts • The maintenance of ecosystem services • The evolution of traditional knowledge • Adaptation of new technologies • Capacity building for desert sustainability • Public participation and socio-economic organization

5. 1. Outlook for desert development

6. Development scenarios: Water Current issues • Exploitation of non-renewable water resources • Water conflicts and cooperation • Quantity and quality • Year-to-year variability Future trends? • Difficulty in estimating renewable water resources • Climate change – increased aridity, decreasing water resources? • Growing population – growing demand

7. Dryland area by basin Source: http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/

8. Virtual water flows Source: http://www.waterandnature.org/eatlas/

9. Projected water supply in major watersheds in drylands, 2025 White, R. P. and Nackoney, J. (2003) Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: web-based geospatial analysis. World Resources Institute – p. 37

10. Development scenarios: Biodiversity Current issues • Status of biodiversity in drylands • Inter-relationships between land degradation, climate change and biodiversity • Role of agro-diversity Future trends? • Lack of natural resource inventories • MA projections: conversion of grassland into other uses (agricultural, urban) • Conservation challenges

11. Development scenarios: Land degradation Current issues • Vulnerability of drylands to climatic and anthropogenic stresses • Extent of land degradation/ desertification (e.g. GLASOD) • Degradation in oases: salinization etc. • Examples of land rehabilitation: Mortimore, Tiffen, Reij, … Future trends? • Population pressures and climate stress likely to increase  how to counter their impacts?

12. "Dust Bowl" in the 1930's Picture from the National Archives. Source: http://www.globalchange.umich.edu/globalchange2/current/lectures/land_deg/land_deg.html

13. Gully erosion in an arid environment Source: http://skagit.meas.ncsu.edu/~helena/gmslab/reports/CerlErosionTutorial/denix/Models%20and%20Processes/Gully.htm

14. Iveti Hills June/July 1937 Iveti Hills January 1991 Machakos – then and now Tiffen, M., Mortimore, M. and Gichuki, F. (1994) More People, Less Erosion: Environmental Recovery in Kenya, John Wiley, Chichester. – p. 8

15. Population dynamics and resource demand • Population in drylands significant and growing, despite environmental challenges • 94% of dryland population currently live in developing countries (Noin, 1998)  resource demand on the rise • Age structure and demographic transition • Relationships between population, resource demand, environment (Malthus, Boserup, etc.)

16. White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 5

17. White, R.P. and Nackoney, J. (2003): Drylands, people, and ecosystem goods and services: a web-based geospatial analysis. World Resource Institute. – p. 9

18. Average animal population growth rates per country Source?

19. Source: http://proutworld.prout.org/features/images/pgrow3.jpg

20. Human well-being and desert vulnerability • Human well-being  in how far dependent on natural environment? • Drylands as non-equilibrium ecosystems • Biophysical and socio-economic vulnerability • Vulnerability vs. resilience  Global climate change  Anthropogenic impact • “Differential” vulnerability (of human communities)

21. Threshold model Succession model Evolution of ecological paradigms non- equilibrium ??? State-and-transition model P a r a d i g m 1970 equilibrium Time

22. Importance of succession model Succession model(Clements, 1916) Provided a planning and management tool for much of the past century • management objective: achieving an equilibrium condition under an equilibrium grazing policy • concept of carrying capacity: stocking rate at which sustainable grazing pressure is achieved Source: Westoby, Walker and Noy-Meir, 1989: p. 266

23. Alternative models Threshold model (Holling, 1973 ; May, 1977 ; Hurd & Wolf, 1974 ; Noy-Meir, 1975) • Boundaries separate multiple equilibrium states in time and space • Sufficient modification of disturbance regime: threshold from one stable state to an alternative stable state is crossed • Ball and cup analogy Source: Briske, Fuhlendorf and Smeins, 2003: p. 604

24. Alternative models State-and-transition model (Westoby, Walker, and Noy-Meir, 1989) • Capacity and flexibility to integrate both equilibrium and non-equilibrium vegetation dynamics • Multiple dimensions encompassed Source: Briske, Fuhlendorf and Smeins, 2003: p. 604

25. Source: http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html

26. Driving forces for foreseen changes • Anthropogenic global warming: effect on drylands not yet clear (evidence for both increase and decrease in rainfall – depending on season and region) • Natural climatic cycles based on global patterns of pressure cells: e.g. El Nino etc. • Population growth: particularly in the developing world • Economic globalization: winners and losers  Complication due to multiple exposure

27. Possible actions to be taken • Poverty alleviation (esp. among vulnerable households and women) • Strengthening adaptive capacities and local institutions (e.g. promoting diversity; facilitating flexible use of labor, etc.) • “Partitioning” as a result of globalization = global version of oasis economy

28. 2. Sustainability and human well-being in deserts

29. Supplementary Concept of sustainability • Brundtland Report (1987): “development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs” • “Triple bottom line”: environment, economy, social equity • Keywords: carrying capacity, maximum sustainable yield How does this concept apply to drylands? • Non-equilibrium dynamics • Pulse-reserve model in ecology (Noy-Meir, 1973) • Boom-and-bust economy • A new definition of sustainability for drylands? • How to buffer the “bust” in a boom-and-bust economy?

30. Source: http://www.camelworld.com/images/PICT1505.JPG

31. Determinants of well-being in deserts • Water availability "In every drop of water there is a grain of gold." (Uzbek proverb)  “By means of water, we give life to everything.” (Quran 21:30)  "You can live without love, but not without water" (Talmud) • Water conveyance and other infrastructure (energy, transportation, markets) • Policy framework (esp. water and land tenure), social protection etc.

32. The maintenance of ecosystem services • How to value ecosystem services? – cost of substitution • Are they economic goods or human rights? • Appropriate management decisions require • reliable information on condition and trends of ecosystems • knowledge on possible consequences of alternative choices • enabling conditions to implement decisions

33. The evolution of traditional knowledge • Traditional knowledge  static or “backward” • Guiding strategies: flexibility and opportunism • Benefits from long presence and accumulated “cultural wisdom” in very close contact with environment • Solutions local in scale (e.g. rainwater harvesting) and site-specific • Often sustainable, but…  Do these strategies offer room for desired “development”???

34. Adaptation of new technologies • Renewable energy? (wind farms; solar farms; etc.) • Biotechnology? • Closed environments? • New technologies vs. socio-cultural background (technologically suitable  socially or culturally adapted) • Maintenance issues

35. Capacity building for desert sustainability • Combining traditional knowledge and scientific findings • Not only bringing science to people: outreach, workshops, community involvement • but also bringing people into science: providing opportunities for higher education for desert dwellers

36. Public participation and socio-economic organization • Decentralization • Empowerment of local people as decision-makers • Participatory, “people-centered” appraisal techniques (Chambers etc.)

37. 3. Closing remarks: options for action

38. Closing remarks: options for action • What is economically feasible (different deserts in different part of the world have different possibilities) vs. what is ecologically desirable • Preserving status quo in ecosystems vs. adapting societies to changes in them • Self-sufficient desert livelihoods/economies vs. dependence on regional/global exchange processes (“partitioning”) • Salvation through new technologies? e.g. desalinization of seawater • Salvation through globalization? • Or “precautionary principle”?

39. Tourism

40. Energy exploitation: wind Source: http://donb.furfly.net/photo_cd/l/b86.html

41. Energy exploitation: solar KJC Operating Company, Mojave Desert, California

42. Oasis economy Deserts – not a barriers but conduits for trade

43. Closed environments