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Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 Baseline Regional Haze Monitoring Data AoH Meeting – Tempe, AZ November 16/17, 2005. Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc. Overview. Review of EPA Regional Haze Rule guidance Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 baseline data

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Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

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  1. Preliminary Summary of2000-04 BaselineRegional Haze Monitoring DataAoH Meeting – Tempe, AZNovember 16/17, 2005 Joe Adlhoch - Air Resource Specialists, Inc.

  2. Overview • Review of EPA Regional Haze Rule guidance • Preliminary Summary of 2000-04 baseline data • Sample glide path graphics from VIEWS

  3. Review of RHR Guidance – Program Visibility Goals • Define current conditions at each Class I area using the 2000-04 baseline period • Define “natural conditions” • Improve visibility such that the average Haze Index for the 20% worst days in the baseline period reach “natural conditions” by 2064 • Ensure that visibility on the 20% best days does not degrade • Periodically assess the improvement in visibility between the baseline period and 2064 and show that “reasonable progress” is being achieved (reasonable progress goal, RPG)

  4. Review of RHR Guidance – Tracking Progress • Assemble daily speciated data and monthly f(RH) values • Perform allowed data substitutions, if warranted • Sites must have at least 3 of 5 years of “complete” data • Calculate daily extinction, convert to Haze Index (deciviews) • Determine the average Haze Index of the 20% worst and best visibility days for each complete year; average annual values for baseline • Determine Glide Path by comparing the 2000-04 baseline value with natural conditions

  5. Schematic of Glide Path From: Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Regional Haze Rule, EPA 2003

  6. Review of RHR Guidance – Natural Conditions (Default Approach) • Begin with default values for annual aerosol concentrations (same across entire western U.S.) • Calculate annual extinction; convert to deciviews • Compute the 20% worst and best visibility (in deciviews) from this annual average and a default regional standard deviation of daily deciview values • Small variation in western sites’ estimated natural conditions caused by f(RH) function only

  7. Natural Conditions (Default) – Annual Aerosol Concentrations From: Guidance for Estimating Natural Visibility Conditions Under the Regional Haze Rule, EPA 2003

  8. Review of RHR Guidance – Refinements • RHR guidance allows for refinements of the steps taken to track progress and define natural conditions – but states must make their case that a refined method yields more reasonable results • Possible refinements: • The IMPROVE steering committee is currently reviewing the extinction equation and is expected to release a new version • Ivar Tombach has researched the question of natural conditions across the U.S. and has offered a variety of options for refinement • Additional data substitutions for sites with less than 3 years data • Other considerations must be considered such as cost and feasibility of emissions reductions

  9. Summary of WRAP Visibility (1) • Results shown here are preliminary • All baseline (2000-04) IMPROVE data have recently been revised (flow rate correction) • 10 WRAP IMPROVE sites did not meet baseline data collection criteria: • California: PORE, KAIS, RAFA • Montana: GLAC, FLAT, NOCH, MELA • Oregon: CRLA • Utah: CAPI • Washington: NOCA

  10. Summary of WRAP Visibility (2) • 2000-04 baseline visibility: Worst days (range): 9.9 to 23.5 deciviews Best days (range): 1.6 to 9.1 deciviews • Default natural conditions: Worst days (range): 6.8 to 8.1 deciviews Best days (range): 1.7 to 2.9 deciviews • Required reductions in haze index to meet 2018 RPG: Worst days (range): 0.7 to 3.8 deciviews Best days (range): -0.3 to 1.7 deciviews

  11. IMPROVE Monitoring Locations

  12. Baseline Visibility: 20% Worst Days

  13. RPG Improvement Required by 2018

  14. Variation in Baseline

  15. Summary for 20% Best Days 2018 Glide Slope Reductions Baseline Visibility

  16. WRAP Sites with Highest/Lowest 20% Worst Baseline Visibility

  17. Glide Path for Sequoia, CA 2018

  18. Glide Path for Denali, AK 2018

  19. Glide Paths on VIEWS http://vista.cira.colostate.edu/views/ • 2004 data still under final review, but expected to be accessible with VIEWS analysis tools soon • Go to the VIEWS home page and look for the “Development: Trends” link

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