Regional Scale Multi-model, Multi-analysis Ensemble Forecasting System

1. Meteorology-VO: Overview PSC05, 9-11 September 2009, Dubrovnik Dr. Vassiliki Kotroni, National Observatory of Athens ON BEHALF OF THE METEOROLOGY VO WITH IMPORTANT CONTRIBUTIONS OF D. Davidovic, V. Floros, L. Ilic, et al. The SEE-GRID-SCI initiative is co-funded by the European Commission under the FP7 Research Infrastructures contract no. 211338

2. Applications • Regional scale Multi-model, Multi-analysis ensemble forecasting system - REFS • Interaction of airflow with complex terrain – WRF-ARW and operational implementation for weather forecasting

3. REFS - Structure • Researchers network • The participationg institutes are: • Greece: National Observatory of Athens (NOA) • Serbia: South Environment and Weather Agency of Serbia (SEWA) • Montenegro: Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro (HIM) • Role in the project: • NOA: develop a multi-analysis ensemble over Europe based on BOLAM and MM5 models. • SEWA: develop a multi-analysis ensemble over Europe based on NCEP/WRF-NMM, NCEP/Eta models. • HIM: interact with SEWA, implement a higher resolution ensemble over their region. • All partners together: work on the integration of this application towards a super-ensemble.

4. REFS – Progress NOA • Passage to a production phase for both BOLAM and MM5 ensemble model chains on the grid. In addition 3 sites have allocated resources for the regional ensemble forecasting and thus the availability of resources is now secured. • Production of a stable version of MPI and MM5 compiled versions. So the problem of model instability (often crashes of the model runs) has been solved. • Produced statistics on the production phase of the two model chains.

5. REFS – Bolam and MM5 statistics • Performance results of REFS from the computing point of view. • Focus on the performance of the application, reflected by the total time it takes for an ensemble to complete successfully, and the application robustness indicated by the number of times the application succeeded or failed to complete. • Statistics collected for MM5 and BOLAM ensembles from mid-April 2009 until mid-August 2009: MM5 ran with 60 processors (6 cores allocated per member) on the three reserved sites in the HellasGrid infrastructure. BOLAM ensembles, in the same time, were submitted through WMS to all sites in SEE-GRID-SCI supporting the Meteo VO (a Virtual Organisation setup in SEE-GRID-SCI to accommodate all meteorology applications of the project). • For both cases the deadline set for the ensemble to complete was 400 minutes (6:40hrs).

6. REFS – Bolam and MM5 statistics MM5 is running with higher rates of success and with more probability for the whole ensemble to complete comparing to BOLAM. This is justified as MM5 runs on dedicated clusters while BOLAM goes through all the stages of Grid scheduling relying on WMS and also the local schedulers in order to decide where and when the jobs will run.

7. REFS – Progress SEWA • Full automatisation and optimasiation of procedures and scripting for the model workflow that runs the regional ensemble prediction system model chain with WRF/NMM and NCEP/Eta model. • The models are run on two GRID sites: at RCUB (Belgrade) and Kragujevac. • Store large output files for Hydrometeorological Institute of Montenegro in order to allow them to run their nested models. At HIM they are still not running on the grid but they are testing with these input files on their local cluster. • Preparing statistics reports for average time needed for job completion. Problems: Encountered some technical problems at the Institute of Physics in Belgrade (unscheduled downtimes of the UI, hardware updates) so this has limited the number of successful runs. Sometimes machines on which the job's are running crash unexpectedly, so still working on this with site administrators.

8. REFS – ETA and NMM statistics NMM and ETA job's are running at two different GRID sites. Each job consists of 11 ensemble members.NMM at cluster1.csk.kg.ac.rsETA at grid01.rcub.bg.ac.rs • Statistics for June 1st - 30th • 2 days with not completely successful download from NCEP of the initial conditions. • 1 day one out of the 11 members did not finish. • 1 day none of the members finishedEach NMM member takes about 15 minutes so for whole NMM run we need ~ 3.5hrEach ETA member takes about 35 minutes so for whole ETA run we need ~ 6hr.

9. REFS – Actions up to M24 • Systematic testing of the response of the SEE-GRID VO infrastructure on daily requests of the whole workflow of all four models regional ensemble prediction systems – Statistics of the production phase • Gained experience will be used to improve the scripts for each model workflow • Proceed with high resolution ensemble at HIM • Work on new scripting in order to use GRIB2 format initial data • Development of the post-processing analysis and production of the super-ensemble

10. WRF/ARW • Researchers network • The participating institutes are: • Rudjer Boskovic Institute (RBI-HR), • Department of Geophysics, Faculty of Science, University of Zagreb(AMGI) • FGA of University of Zagreb (FGA-HR), • Faculty of Electrical Engineering, University of Banja Luka (UoBL-BA) • Republic Hydrometeorological Institute of Republic of Srpska, BiH(RHI-BA), • Federal Hydrometeorology Institute, Sarajevo, BiH (FHI-BA), • and • Georgian Research andEducational NetworkingAssociation (GRENA-GE) • Institute for Informatics and Automation Problems‏, Armenia • RENAM Association, Moldova and State Hydrometeorological Service of Moldova

11. WRF/ARW - Structure • Researchers network - Role in the project: • RBI • Coordination and leading development of application • Porting model to grid, fine-tunning • AMGI • Model development and testing • FGA • Inspecting post-processing possibilities (visualization)‏ • UoBL • Porting model to grid and fine-tuning • FHI • Developing and testing • RHI • Testing, know-how

12. WRF/ARW - Progress RBI – AMGI Finished scientific mode of WRF application Started using WRFfor scientific research purposes – wind simulations Finished operational mode – finished scripts for automatic execution on the grid infrastructure (wrf-submit, wrf-start-oper, wrf-get-data)‏ Start daily operational forecast (automatic submission and data downloading/uploading)‏ Help with adjusting programs and scripts for operational weather forecast – BIH and Georgia Regular maintainance of the application – upgrading, correcting run-time errors, scripts improving

13. WRF/ARW - Progress FHI – RHI Worked on scripts for operational model execution (automatic updating of namelist.* files, cron scheduler, etc..) - finished FHI has begun using WRF model on the grid for operational forecasts Worked on post-processing tools (Grads and ARWpost)‏, RHI has achieved a great success in learning of model itself and how to use model on the grid RHI runs WRF model locally, getting prepared to start grid execution of the model

14. WRF/ARW - Progress GRENA Got the basic knowledge about WRF model Finished preparing terrain domain (namelist.* files) for their research area (Georgia), Started running WRF model locally (local cluster)‏ Started to run WRF model on the grid (still with some small problems) – first steps Helped in identifying run-time/execution errors

15. WRF/ARW – Actions up to M24 M12 – Start working on tuning the scientific mode - FINISHED M12 – M14 – Finish operational mode for weather forecasting – FINISHED M17 – Finish operational forecast set-up on the grid for both Georgia and BIH M17 – Finish WRF model user manual for grid usage M12 – M18 – Tuning of operational and scientific modes, updating and upgrading scripts for model manipulation on grid infrastructure M18 – M24 – Final testing and application fine-tuning, finalization of both scientific and operationalapplication mod

16. Meteo VO and 1st year Review Reviewer’s comments “In the second year of the project, the partners will need to place more emphasis on dissemination of the scientific outputs from the project. in the second year of the project, the partners will need to place more. In addition, it will be important to point to scientific papers produced by the project that have appeared in refereed conferences/journals outside the grid community in the scientific field of interest.” Actions up to now • 1 article submitted: Lagouvardos K., E. Floros and V. Kotroni, 2009: A Grid-enabled Regional-scale Ensemble Forecasting System in the Mediterranean. Int. J. of Grid Computing. • 1 paper in conference proceedings: Khotsanyan T., H. Astsatryan, A. Mirzoyan, V. Sahakyan, Yu. Shoukourian, H. Melkonyan, A. Hovsepyan, Z. Petrosyan, V. Kotroni, 2009: Implementing and Evaluating the Weather Research and Forecast Model for the Territory of Armenia, 7th Conference on Computer Science and Information Technologies, 28 September - 2 October, 2009, Yerevan, Armenia

17. Meteo VO and 1st year Review Future Actions • Submit abstracts for the SEE-GRID-SCI User Forum’09 (at least two). • Prepare a paper contribution for REFS in ISGTW by month 24 • …

18. Meteo VO –regional collaborations • The implementation of WRF/ARW model for operational weather forecasting in • Bosnia, • Georgia, • Armenia, and • Moldova, that will be achieved within the project duration is considered as a major contribution to the increase of regional collaborations.