ENSEMBLES

1. ENSEMBLES An Integrated Project under the 6th Framework Programme of the EU Project overview and update for RT4/RT5 meeting, ENS, 10-11 February 2005 Chris Hewitt, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK chris.hewitt@metoffice.gov.uk

2. Outline • Overview of the ENSEMBLES project (10RTs) • Achievements to date • Current, planned activities and latest developments

3. The ENSEMBLES Project • A five year project, up to €15 million funding from EC • Currently about 66 partners from across EU, Switzerland, Australia, US • Ten Research Themes (~300 page DoW) • Project is being managed by a Management Board under the terms of a Consortium Agreement • Follows on from/builds upon FP5 projects (e.g. DEMETER, PREDICATE, STARDEX)

4. Strategic Objectives • Develop an ensemble prediction system based on the principal state-of-the-art high resolution, global andregional Earth System models, validated against quality controlled, high resolution gridded datasets for Europe, to produce for the first time, an objective probabalistic estimate of uncertainty in future climate at the seasonal, decadal and longer timescales • Quantify and reduce uncertainty in the representation of physical, chemical, biological and human-related feedbacks in the Earth System • Maximise the exploitation of the results by linking the outputs to a range of applications, including agriculture, health, food security, energy, water resources, insurance and risk management

5. Overview of Research Themes RT1 James Murphy, Tim Palmer • To build and test an ensemble prediction system based on global Earth System Models for use in the generation of multi-model simulations of future climate in RT2A. RT2A Jean-Francois Royer, Guy Brasseur • To produce sets of climate simulations and provide the multi-model results needed in other RTs: validation RT5, understanding processes RT4, as well as providing boundary conditions and forcing fields for regional model simulations RT2B.

6. Overview of Research Themes RT3 Jens Christensen, Markku Rummukainen • To provide improved climate model tools developed in the context of regional models, first at 50 km, later at 20 km resolution for specified sub-regions, including provision of a multi-model based ensemble system for regional climate prediction for use in RT2B. RT2B Clare Goodess, Daniela Jacob • To provide ensemble based regional climate scenarios and seasonal to decadal hindcasts for use in other RTs: understanding processes RT4, validation RT5, and impacts studies RT6.

7. Overview of Research Themes (continued) RT4 Julia Slingo, Herve le Treut • To advance the understanding of the basic science at the heart of the ENSEMBLES project, exploiting integrations performed in RT2A, linking with RT5 on the evaluation of the ensemble prediction system and feeding back results to RT1. RT5 Antonio Navarra, Albert Klein Tank • To perform a comprehensive and independent evaluation of the performance of the ensemble prediction system, including the production of high resolution observational dataset, and using integrations from RT1, RT2A, RT2B and RT3.

8. Overview of Research Themes (continued) RT6 Andy Morse, Colin Prentice • To carry out climate impact assessments, including linking impact models to ENSEMBLES probabalistic scenarios produced in RT2A and RT2B, in order to develop risk based estimates of impacts. RT7 Richard Tol, Roberto Roson • To provide scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, land-use changes and adaptive capacity with and without greenhouse gas reduction policies, and test the sensitivity of these scenarios to climate change. RT8 Martin Beniston, Christos Giannakopolous • Represents the interface between the ENSEMBLES scientific consortium and a wider audience that includes scientists, stakeholders, policymakers and the general public.

9. Research Themes

10. RT0 Management

11. RT0 Management • Provide overall co-ordination and top-level management for the project. • Organise General Assemblies to discuss progress and plans • ENSEMBLES Management Board meet as often as required • End of project conference and brochure to showcase the project’s outcomes • Coordinate reporting, and comms. between EC and project • Project Office can be contacted on ensemblesfp6@metoffice.gov.ukor look at http://www.ensembles-eu.org

12. Achievements to date (Feb 05) • Project started 1 Sep 04 (the date you can charge costs from) • Kick-off meeting (13 absent partners) and 1st EMB meeting • Contract signed and pre-financing distributed • Project web site http://www.ensembles-eu.org available along with web sites for RT1, RT2A, RT6, RT8 (RT2B,3 soon) • Project-wide and RT mailing lists developed. • Eos overview article published • 1st Newsletter released, 1st ENSEMBLES Workshop arranged. Please provide RT8 with requested information so they can disseminate project information and results. • Links with other projects (e.g. DYNAMITE, 3rd&4th call), and requests for participation from additional organisations

13. Current and planned activities • 6 month reporting

14. For WP leaders For partners

15. Current and planned activities • 6 month reporting (1Sep04 – 28Feb05). RT coordinators will advise • End of year reporting – strongly recommend all partners do a practise run, particularly for cost statements (but don’t do the audit certificate) • EMB to discuss a timetable for end of year reports • Gender committee – volunteers contact me or Clare Goodess

16. Current meeting timetable • EMB meeting, 23 March, Copenhagen • Informal meetings at EGU? 24-29 April, Vienna • Cross-cutting Worksop, 9-11 May, Evora • RT6 meeting, June (TBC) • Joint RT1/RT2A meeting, 13-15 June, Toulouse • General Assembly, 5-9 September, Athens • Joint AVEC summer school, 18-30 September, France

17. Discussion items • General Assembly schedule: • Day 0 Monday Optional RT/WP meetings • Day 1 Tuesday RT meetings • Day 2-3 Wed-Thu General Assembly • Day 4 Fri. a.m. Management Board • Interaction with other RTs • Web sites

18. Example of an RT web site

19. Questions & Answers