Briefing on the situation in the South-East of Ukraine (25.03 – 30.03.2016)

1. \ GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE Briefing on the situation in the South-East of Ukraine (25.03 – 30.03.2016)

2. SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT • EVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINS • 1. RF-Moldova • 28-30.03.2016 - visit of the Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of RF G.Karasin to Moldova aimed at discussing cooperation enforcing in the trading sphere (cancelation of RF restriction on Moldavian goods export and unhampered rotation of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Transnistria); • Lobbying its interests in Gagauzia RF authorities (unofficially) provided a range of preferences in controlling of Moldavian and Gagauzian export to RF to the Russian oligarch Y.Yakubov (originally Gagauzian). It is expected to have loyal attitude to Kremlin in the region in return. • 2. RF-Italy • 25.03.2016 - there was conducted a visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Italy P.Gentiloni to RF. He discussed with Lavrov a possibility to resume the dialog in «2+2» format between Ministers of Foreign Affairs and Defence Ministers and ways of bilateral cooperation in different scopes in the state of sanctions imposed on RF • 3. RF – Czech Republic • 25.03.2016 - there was conducted a visit of the Minister of Industry and Trading of RF D.Manturov to Czech Republic aimed at widening economical cooperation in the state of sanctions imposed on RF

3. SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF THE UKRAINIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT • EVENTS IN THE POLITICAL AND ECONOMICAL DOMAINS • 1. Information company supported by state bodies and controlled media agencies of RF against Ukrainian state leadership is still going on. There have been stimulated: «round tables» conducting, propagandistic expositions and different forums where Ukrainian ex-politicians, who currently hiding in RF, were involved. RF mass media widely publicized “facts and evidence of war crimes offended by Ukrainian troops” against local population in Donbas; • 2. 25.03.2016V.Putin in Moscow at the assembly of Russian union of manufacturers and businessmen confirmed RF authorities’ readiness to decrease fiscal pressure and to soften criminal responsibility for minor economical offends and indirectly stated that assets withdrawal from Ukraine was not reasonable. • 3. 25.03.2016State Duma of RF passed in the first reading the law “Concerning RF residence permit providing to the refuges of Ukraine in simplified procedure” in the framework of the Program of demographic situation improvement and decreasing lack of labor force in the problematic Russian regions (325 thousand refuges have applied for residence permit) • 4. 23.03.2016in Moscow “the head of the Republic of Crimea” S.Aksionov giving press-conference devoted to the II Yalta International Economy Forum (14-16.03.16) revealed the way of coping with international sanctions. It is establishment of enterprises on the inland part of RF and their consequent acting in the Crimea

4. SITUATION DEVELOPMENT IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT • MAIN EVENTS IN THE OСCUPIED TERRITORIES • 1.The "DNR" continue to work on implementing the norms of the Russian legislation. Particular attention is paid to the sphere of customs regulation, freedom of conscience and religion, as well as the fight against terrorism. At the same time, the leadership of the Russian Federation organized training of the representatives of "DLNR" in the Russian state legislature organs (nowadays the number of representatives of "DLNR" study peculiarities of the Russian legislative practice in the upper house of the Russian State Duma; • 2. 23/03/2016 A.Zaharchenko within strengthening of "ideological component" announced the establishment in "DNR" “state” institutions and enterprises the positions of political leaders; • 3. As part of the "international legitimacy“ of "DNR" and the Crimea occupation: • the self-proclaimed republic of South Ossetia's parliament approved a memorandum of inter-parliamentary cooperation with the "DNR" (with the “LNR" is planned to do the same in the near future); • in Moscow between the Occupational “Government of the Crimea" and the federal state enterprise "ITAR-TASS" an agreement on cooperation is signed in the framework of the distribution by "ITAR-TASS" the "truthful" information about the situation in the Crimea in the global information space; • 4.Lack of adequate funding by the Russian Federation leads to a further deterioration in the socio-economic situation in "DLNR." Suspended payment of full salary and various types of social assistance, measures are being taken to intimidate the population to limit the exitof "DLNR citizens" on the territory controlled by Ukraine.

5. Russian Federation Armed Forces composition on the territories of Donetsk and Luhansk (LNR/DNR) • – up to 7 200 – up to 117 (+110 at storage bases) – up to 460 – up to 150 – up to 95 RUSSIAN FEDERATION ARMED FORCES COMPONENT IN A FRONTIER ZONE WITH UKRAINE – up to 66 air defense systems Russian Federation Armed Forces composition – 34 200 – up to 257 – up to 1206 UKRAINE – up to4launchers «Tochka-U» – up to 300 – up to 161 – up to140 – up to 440 (+) – up to 30 – up to 4 Up to 10 BTG 7 CTG РТГр – до 11 – up to 16 BTG – up to 9 CTG Up to 3 BTG 1CTG RUSSIA Up to 1 BTG Up to 2 BTG 1 CTG

6. RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE Nowadayshybrid warfare (another names – proxy war, non-linear war, soft power theory, chaos theory, synergetic, dissipative structure theory, systematic theory)became the name of existing confrontation between Russia and Ukraine. V.Surkov, RF President assistant, has been recognized as «the main constructor» of hybrid warfare regarding Ukraine (he is using the term «the first non-linear war»). He keeps the position of «the main curator» from Putin`s administration on the occupied territory of Donbas and examines the expansion as «natural state of the sound country». It is V.Surkov, who in 2005 introduced the term «Russian peace» in a present-day political domain and he was one of the originators of new holiday of Russian peace — «The Day of national unity». The year before Crimean annexation, in 2013 it was hanging the map of Russian empire in the drawing room of V.Surkov, where Crimea has already been the part of Russia. Peculiarities of this hybrid warfare do not enable to use absolutely the definition of aggression, conceived in the resolution of UN General Assembly in 1974: «Article 1. Aggression is the usage of the force of armsagainst sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence ofanother state or any other way, contradictory to UN Charter, as it is defined in the current definition».

7. RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE A.Manoilo, doctor of political sciences, professor of Lomonosov Moscow State University, is one of the ideologists of the modern Russian state information policy in specific conditions. According to his assertion, information and psychological war is the warfare, planned in accordance with public relations scenarios. Leakage of misinformation and its presentation in the positive light allows to distort the assessment of what is happening, to demoralize the citizens and in the short prospect to provide the defection to the side of the informational aggressor. Many different views on hybrid warfare were reflected in the following projects of Russian scientist: «Hybrid warfare and color revolution in the world policy», «Technologies of non-bearing settlement of international and internal political conflicts», «Strategies role of the controlled chaos in formation of new world order», «Ukraine as the general rehearsal: color revolutions and authority disassembling», «Ukrainian crisis and «controlled chaos»: trace of «color revolutions» of Arab spring» etc. A.Manoilo, participating in annual meeting of RF Academy of Military Sciences in 2016, underlined, that the threats of hybrid warfare and color revolutions are real and are not the propagandist myth, and also some conception elements of confrontation «soft power» exist in Russian foreign policy, but represented quite schematically and more often as the copy of the best practices of other countries.

8. RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE One discussed the ways of «hybrid warfare» and «color revolution» threats prevention in RF Academy of Military Sciences (February-March 2016). V.Herasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of RF, first deputy Minister of Defence of RF, gave the main briefing. According to his words, «the accent of the used methods of confrontation is being shiftedin the side of wide usage of political, economical, informational, humanitarian and other non-military measures, realized by means of involvement of protest potential of the dwellers. All this can be complemented with military measures of hidden character, including the realization of the events of informational confrontation and special operation forces activities. One can often use the open force under the pretext of peacekeeping activity and crisis settlement only at definite stage, mainly for achieving the final success in the conflict». V.Herasimov also stated that Russia has got the definite level of mastery in the domain of «hybrid warfare», in general having accumulated and used successfully foreign experience. Hereafter, Russia should counter the enemy, developing conception of «soft power».

10. RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE «Hybrid warfare» — military strategy, joining togetherordinary, small and cyber warfare. The key forms of «hybrid warfare» conduct are informational activities, psychological actions and cyber attacksdirected at structural technical components of state and also its citizens. «Color revolutions» — collective name of power change processes, such as «rose revolution» in Georgia, «tulip» in Kyrgyzstan, «orange» in Ukraine, «jasmine» in Tunisia and «lotus» in Egypt. Starting as peaceful meetings, «color revolutions» as a rule result in cruel and tough confrontationstepping out oflegal framework. «Soft power»envisagesvoluntary involvement in its sphere of interests first of all by means of formation of attractive imageas a counter to «tough power», leaning on compulsion and money. It is deemed to be that «soft power» is actively used by Western countries, extending values of democracy and human rights along with acquainting wide world public with its culture and customer preference.

11. In hybrid warfare against Ukraine, the aggressor – Russia – represents itself as a victim of Western countries policy, forced to protect itself from its expansion on post soviet area. Within this paradigm the actions of RF against Ukraine and world community have been examined as forced. On the one hand, Ukraine has been examined as the domain of exclusive interests of RF, but on the other hand – as Western instrument implementing «color revolutions» on post soviet area. Agreements signing regarding association between EU and such countries as Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia can be interpreted as European aggression act against Russia. Ideas of protection from supposed threats is used also for formation of domestic conflict. Threats: “junta", “fascists", “banderovtsy". Victims are “Russian people in Ukraine". Besides, no one cares that “the victim" dies only there, where he/she is "protected", and feels fine on the territory of “junta" in places of maximum accumulation of «banderovtsy».

12. RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE RF KEY AIM IN CONFLICT WITH UKRAINEis toweaken anddecentralize the country, to place in power prorussian lobby, disrupt Euro-Atlantic course, regaining Ukraine under the control of Kremlin. Besides, strategy and tactics against Ukraine includes consecutive steps on realization of examined higher approaches. UNIQUE FEATURES OF «HYBRID WARFARE»: aggression without official declaring war with covering-up by country-aggressor its participation in the conflict; wide application of irregular military formations (also under the pretext of peaceful settlers); enemy violation of international norms of combat activities conductand also acting international agreements and earlier agreements reached; activities of political and economical pressure (with formal maintenance of international economical and other relations between countries); wide propaganda and counterpropaganda with the usage of «shadowy schemes» with confrontation in cyberspace.

13. Vladimir Horbulin, advisor of the President of Ukraine, chief of National Institute of Strategic Sciences, academician of national Academy of Science of Ukraine, Doctor of Engineering Science, professor. Regularly represents to the world community the ideas of Ukrainian scientists regarding undeclared war of Russia against Ukraine, its geopolitical sources along with analysis of its new forms and aspects. Analysis of «hybrid warfare» as a key instrument of Russian geostrategy of revenge has been pictured in more than 30 publications of well-known Ukrainian politician and scientist. The results of strategic researches of V.Horbulin (for the period of 2 years of Russian-Ukrainian conflict) «irradiate» at secret operations and active events conducted by RF within the framework of hybrid warfare not only in Ukraine, but also beyond its borders. Predictions of V.Horbulin for Ukraine and World community are unpromising – «hybrid warfare wasn`t started by Ukraine and won`t be finished here.This is just the beginning»… And the statement of D.Grybauskaite, the President of Lithuania (in 2014!) «If no one stops the terrorist state conducting open aggression against its neighbor, it will be expanded on Europe and further». And it really has been expanded.In many sophisticated forms…

14. In the article of V.Horbulin dated on 25.03.2016 «Hybrid warfare: this is just the beginning…» there are some key components belonging to the events of the current Russian practice in framework of «hybrid warfare»: • Traditional military measures (usage of permanent military units and equipment along with special operations forces); • Quasimilitary activity (formation and support of illegal armed units, support and radicalization of separatist movements, formal and informal private military companies); • Operations of non-military influence, by means of special informational operations and “active events" (including economic pressure, cyberspace operations, diplomacy, манипуляции manipulations in informational space)

15. RF HYBRID WARFARE AGAINST UKRAINE H.Pocheptsov, Ukrainian professor, Doctor of Philology, acknowledged expert in communicative technologies domain, has formulated in his projects the name of RF aggression on the East of Ukraine and Crimean annexation as «the first первая semantic war». H.Pocheptsov has statedthe following features ofconcealed informational and psychological aggression of RF in South-Eastern part of Ukraine: military aggression features elimination – «green men, polite people» ; features elimination of illegal activities during conquest of power – «peoples mayor, everything is our national, peoples self-defence, reunion of historical territories»; creation ofnegative characteristics of legal authority – «punishers, junta, self-proclaimed Kyiv authority». REVEALED DIRECTIONS OF RF INFORMATIONAL AGGRESSION destabilization of social-political situation in Ukraine; changes provoking in territorial organization of Ukraine; opposition to cooperation deepening between Ukraine and EU, NATO; formation of negative image of Ukraine in sight of world community; discredit of law-enforcement bodies and authorities of Ukraine during fulfillment their tasks in ATO zone.

19. CURRENT CONCLUSIONS IN THE CONTEXT OF RUSSIAN-UKRAINIAN CONFLICT • Leadership of the Russian Federation continues to implement the concept of "hybrid war" in the phase of maintenance of the low-intensity conflict in the south-east of Ukraine • Kremlin leadership has stepped up measures to deepen the contradictions among the Western countries on the issue of accepting of the Russian aggression against Ukraine and recognition of further extension of anti-Russian sanctions; • Economic viability of the "DNR project" within the existing territory entails efforts to further expand the boundaries of the self-proclaimed "republics" by capturing Donbass infrastructure on the territory not controlled by them. To achieve this goal the Russian Federation continues to transfer of military equipment, fuel and ammunition to the line of demarcation, conducts training of separatists’ units together with troops of the russian Armed Forces, authorizes the constant bombardment of ATO forces and proactive tactical groups. • The occupied territory of Ukraine turned for Russia in subsidized region, where the level of industry and agriculture - is low, the proportion of pensioners - is very high, and the ecological situation - is critical. This leads to frustration of the "republic’s" population

20. GENERAL DIRECTORATE OF MILITARY COOPERATION AND PEACEKEEPING OPERATIONS OF THE GENERAL STAFF OF THE ARMED FORCES OF UKRAINE Thank You for Your attention!