Presentation Transcript

1. The Ukraine election: War and Peace in the East of Europe

   and consequences for the West. Kiron Reid
2. ULLA & friends; the Racquet Club 26 June 2014. An international election observer's perspective on the Presidential election and the political consequences for Ukraine, relations with Russia and relations between Russia and the EU. Kiron Reid, honorary research fellow in the School of Law, Short Term Observer (STO) OSCE election observation mission. The talk will cover: what international election observation is; the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights; an introduction to the methodology; political background in Ukraine; the observation experience this time; and political consequences of and post- the election. Questions, discussion and contributions from the audience.Reception and continued discussion. 
3. Introduction The Ukraine seen on television and Ukraine seen by the overwhelming majority of 1000+ OSCE observers are as different as Brick Lane and Belgravia. The contrast is as stark as Belfast in the troubles and a sleepy English village. International election observers declared that the election largely met national and international standards, except in Donetsk and Luhansk where very few citizens were able to vote. Petro Poroshenko, the chocolate (and vodka and automotive) magnate, was overwhelmingly elected President by people in nearly 90% of the country (although Donetsk is a very populated Oblast - region). After a day and a half of briefings in Kiev my group flew down via Dniepropetrovsk to Zaporizhia, which is in the South East but is not an area where there has been any major trouble. (Putting aside the attempt by armed persons to take over a large nuclear power station, that was readily thwarted).
4. The OSCE & ODIHR The Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has 57 participating States from Europe, Central Asia and North America. It evolved from a body set up for dialogue during 1970s détente between the Cold War blocks, and was tasked in the early 1990s with “working to ensure peace, democracy and stability”. The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) is the principal institution of the OSCE responsible for the ‘human dimension’. This means that the ODIHR works to help OSCE participating States “to ensure full respect for human rights and fundamental freedoms, to abide by the rule of law, to promote principles of democracy and … to build, strengthen and protect democratic institutions, as well as promote tolerance throughout society” (the 1992 Helsinki Document). The OSCE/ODIHR promotes democratic elections throughout the OSCE area by observing elections and providing election training and assistance, which it has done since 1990.
5. International election observation The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) The OSCE & Council of Europe. The EU There is an International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA) & regional organisations in different continents. E.g. The European Platform for Democratic Elections (EPDE) is one group comprised of civil society organisations working in or supporting election observation in the former Soviet Union states. The US NDI and the Carter Centre are two big state based organisations. The UK Foreign & Commonwealth Office (FCO) send observers on both OSCE and EU (outside Europe) missions. They do not recruit election monitors directly, but contract one of three organisations who select the monitors - ERIS, BEWC and SOLACE Enterprises. *
6. International election observation principles.
7. The principles of fair elections
8. EU safety & security training
9. The Ukraine background 1991 Independence from the Soviet Union. 2004 Orange revolution led by Viktor Yushchenko and YuliaTymoshenko leads Yuschenko to replace pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych who won Nov election by vote rigging. 2010 Viktor Yanukovych returned to power in free and fair election, his main rival, now YuliaTymoshenko, is jailed after a seemingly politically motivated trial. 21 November 2013. President Yanukovych's cabinet abandons an agreement on closer trade ties with EU, instead seeking closer co-operation with Russia. A police crackdown on protesters at the end of November leads into mass protests in December. 17 December. $15bn economic deal signed with Russia. Late January, protests escalate with deaths, attempted compromises in February followed by 18 and 88 people killed in central Kiev (Kyiv), 18 – 20 Feb. Compromise deal signed 21 Feb. President Yanukovych flees 22 February.
10. Political background March 2014 onwards OlexanderTurchynov interim president. ArseniyYatsenyuk interim prime minister. Presidential election set for 25 May. 27-28 February:Pro-Russian gunmen seize key buildings in the Crimean capital, Simferopol, later airports and military bases. 7 March opening of Paralympic Games in Sochi. One Ukrainian athlete attends. 18 March Vladimir Putin speech to Russian Parliament. Crimea absorbed into Russia. 7 April pro-independence, decentralisation, or Russian protests and occupations start in eastern cities of Donetsk, Luhansk and Kharkiv. Donetsk and Luhansk regions remain the centre of anti-Kyiv or pro-Russian insurgency today, despite an “anti-terrorist operation” launched on 15 April. Sloviansk and port / resort Mariupol are key centres. 11 May referendums held by separatists.
11. Map of Ukraine.
12. The south east.
13. The deployment. I was one of the 90 UK short term election observers deployed to the OSCE election observation mission in Ukraine for the 25 May early Presidential election. I was deployed in Zaporizhia / Zaporozhye, South east Ukraine, a city bigger than and very similar to Liverpool (though a river port, not coastal). On 25 May I was jointly responsible as an observer for a city district (rayon) of 80 polling stations and 161,000 people. Lenins’kyi district
14. Social and cultural similarities and differences. Time zone and money. Hryvnia (UAH). Mostly similarities. Cyrillic alphabet. Voda and vodka. Coffee and Carling. & the menu issue. ●ВОДА Лондона Запорожский государственный университет
15. The Code of Conduct the key points are: • neutrality and impartiality; • no interference in the political or electoral process; • transparency and confidentiality; • adherence to mission instructions, including security guidelines; • respect for the national laws and culture. The ten point code is annexed at the end of my talk, and found on the back cover of the OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Handbook.
16. Lenin.
17. Zaporizhia / Zaporozhye Unlike the Dombass where industry and jobs had gone, here parts still very industrial and functioning. There are modern shopping malls, nice coffee shops, many bars and restaurants; three Universities plus a medical school. This is a quite prosperous city and no one wants to make trouble. Although pro-Russia / devolution demonstrations had been banned, and a large number of protesters arrested only a month before, they had all been released. Very specifically ‘a Soviet city’. They are very proud of their statute of Lenin (who dominates the river) and Soviet monuments. The main boulevard is Lenina Prospect, and our district is Leninskya. Everyone speaks Russian unless on official business. The region is also the birthplace of the Cossacks. We saw very little election activity – campaigning by YuliaTymoshenko supporters, and billboards for Poroshenko and a few others (he’d held a major rally not long before). My election partner, a Dr. MarketaSmrckova, is a young Czech expert on south eastern European politics, from Brno University. We were jointly responsible for a city district (rayon) of 80 polling stations and 161,000 people. We visited 15 of them and saw no significant irregularity. The election and counting process was really quite smooth but completing the paperwork afterwards (the ‘tabulation’ of local count) was interminably slow - partly for a series of unverifiable reasons. Computer system glitch was a main one. There was no evidence of any wrongdoing. There was also a Canadian national team of observers that independently inspected our area. There were NO far right Right Sector anywhere, despite a report on pro-Russia social media that they were in every polling station. I only met one observer in the West who had seen any of them.
18. Our team. The team are left to right: myself; Dr. Lilia Bespalaya (interpreter); Dr. MarketaSmrckova (partner); IhorLykov (driver).
19. Voting on the day.
20. What the election was like. Even those who didn’t particularly support Poroshenko voted for Poroshenko. Voters wanted and got a clear winner so that they could show the outside world that Ukraine has a genuinely democratically elected President. But most of all people are enjoying summer and are out in the streets, the coffee shops, at the beach or beach bars along the river (below the dam), in the parks (industrial but a very green city), or the national park. They want to live their lives as modern Europeans who are Ukrainian but also friends with Russia.
21. Polling day The set up. The count.
22. What didn’t go so smoothly. Party atmosphere. In our region and in all the others that I heard people comment on it was the same. People turned out in blazing sun in the morning to vote, and there was a party atmosphere - with music playing at the polling stations (rock and folk - everyone asked me about the Beatles), and catering in the foyers. I recommend the latter for the UK. The elephant in the room was the role of Russia on the mission. Russia is an OSCE member and usually has a strong presence in nearby countries. They did not send any observers. The OSCE failed to comment on this (even when asked a direct question by an STO) which treated everyone as if they were stupid. Maybe they thought the facts spoke for themselves.  Communication by the core team with STOs while on mission was a weak point. Special Monitoring Mission (civilian military observation, not election) monitors were detained in Donetsk. and Luhansk. There was fighting and a helicopter shot down at Donetsk airport on the night of the election day with heavy fighting going on as the counts continued. Ukrainian forces attacked separatists who had seized the airport. We heard about these developments by text message from home, with any detail only from snatched headlines.  Of 36 million voters there was a 60% turnout (it seemed to be 50% where I was). However in Donetsk 10 out of 12, and Luhansk 14 out of 22 districts had no voting. The equivalent of nearly all of the population of Liverpool and Manchester not being able to vote. There was voting in 800 out of 3,908 polling stations in these oblasts. And none in Crimea for citizens there who wanted to. *
23. Poroshenko’s peace plan, & the Donbass The problem of myths and propaganda. The hostility to the central government because of the deaths and destruction in fighting. The situation is very complicated. And it has to be solved, accounting for the interests of various groups, including those who support the separatist movement. Volodymyr Kypen.* What is Vladimir Putin’s goal? From the places I visited this was the most prosperous and modern of any countries I have visited in south eastern Europe, with less visible extremes of wealth and poverty; although I heard of very poor conditions in some country areas and bad urban estates. As always in Eastern Europe everyone had a better mobile phone than me. What can be done to end the excitement of war (for some), fear of change and of losing Russian identity, I don’t know, but reassurance in the east is needed. Could Wales be the best model to follow? And can the Beatles help?
24. Russia and Western European relations The dangling of EU and NATO expansion. Will the EU concentrate on Ukraine or will they get distracted by other crises? Will the domestic interests of certain nations (dependence on Russian gas) and the potential wider impact mean European sanctions against Russia are limited? What prospects for business in Russia. The problem of the rule of law. Economic reforms are needed but some politicians and commentators are talking of sweeping post-Perestroika style market nihilism that would be disastrous and lose a huge amount of public support. Self-reliance in Ukraine. Not just politically, but in energy. The country has abundant sun (in summer) and plains. It is perfect for large solar use.
25. Questions and discussion
26. References & sources. The OSCE/ODIHR Election Observation Mission Ukraine Early Presidential Election Short-term Observer Guide. Other relevant documents about Ukraine: http://www.osce.org/odihr/elections/ukraine/116545 http://www.osce.org/what/elections This one page of advice on what the job involves is useful. It is for EU missions which are outside Europe * http://www.eods.eu/how-to-be-an-sto Liverpool Hope University Desmond Tutu Centre symposium: ‘Post-Maidan Ukraine: EU, Ukrainian and Russian perspectives’ 9 May 2014. There is a Ukrainian Institute in London, http://ukrainianinstitute.org.uk affiliated to the Ukrainian Catholic University.
27. Other useful materials. Video Tutorial on Election Day Procedures for May 25 Ukraine Election Observers. International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) in partnership with the Ukrainian Central Election Commission (CEC), 33 minutes. http://www.ifes.org/Content/Multimedia/Videos/2014/Video-Tutorial-on-Election-Day-Procedures-for-May-25-Ukraine-Election-Observers.aspx If interested in this kind of work: The EU is increasingly working to support citizen election observer groups in other countries. The UNDP and EU have done this for  years. Generally it is much harder to get a place as an observer now as there are fewer opportunities and far more people applying but that is not a reason not to apply.Have a glance at the OSCE / ODIHR, and EU External Action Service pages on a recent mission or two to see the kind of documents that are produced. EU and OSCE online training materials  Both the OSCE / ODIHR and EU have online e-learning short courses for election observers. These are aimed at Short Term Observers. It is good to have done them, I found both very long and time consuming - four modules subdivided into (lots of) topics with many pages to read through and many questions. *
28. CODE OF CONDUCT FOR ODIHR OBSERVERS Observers will maintain strict impartiality in the conduct of their duties and will at no time publicly express or exhibit any bias or preference in relation to national authorities, parties or candidates, or with reference to any issues in contention in the election process. Observers will undertake their duties in an unobtrusive manner and will not interfere in the electoral process. Observers may raise questions with election officials and bring irregularities to their attention, but they must not give instructions or countermand their decisions. Observers will remain on duty throughout election day, including observation of the vote count and, if instructed, the next stage of tabulation. Observers will base all conclusions on their personal observations or on clear and convincing facts or evidence. Observers will not make any comments to the media on the electoral process or on the substance of their observations, and any unauthorized comment to the media will be limited to general information about the observation mission and the role of the observers. Observers will not take any unnecessary or undue risks. Each observer’s personal safety overrides all other considerations. Observers will carry any prescribed identification issued by the host government or election commission and will identify themselves to any authority upon request. Observers will comply with all national laws and regulations. Observers will exhibit the highest levels of personal discretion and professional behaviour at all times. Observers will attend all required mission briefings and debriefings and adhere to the deployment plan and all other instructions provided by the ODIHR EOM.