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Executive Board meeting 26 May 2004

Executive Board meeting 26 May 2004. Interest and exchange rate assumptions and CPI projections adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) and the output gap in Inflation Report 1/04. Per cent. Krone exchange rate, I-44 (left-hand scale). CPI-ATE. Output gap.

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Executive Board meeting 26 May 2004

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  1. Executive Board meeting26 May 2004

  2. Interest and exchange rate assumptions and CPI projections adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE) and the output gap in Inflation Report 1/04. Per cent Krone exchange rate, I-44 (left-hand scale) CPI-ATE Output gap Money market rate (right-hand scale) Source: Norges Bank Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  3. At 24 May At 20 April Historical and expected key ratesat 24 May and 20 April 2004.Daily figures. Jan 2000 - Jun 2005 Euro area US Sources: EcoWin, Bloomberg and Norges Bank

  4. At 24 May At 20 April Historical and expected key ratesat 24 May and 20 April 2004.Daily figures. Jan 2000 - Jun 2005 UK Sweden Sources: EcoWin, Bloomberg, Bank of England and Norges Bank

  5. Oil price Brent Blend (North Sea oil)USD and EUR per barrel. Daily figures. 2002-2006 Futures prices in USD 24 May 2004 USD per barrel Assumption IR 1/04 EUR per barrel Sources: Telerate, IPE and Norges Bank

  6. Producer prices in the US, the euro area and JapanPercentage change on same month previous year. Jan 1998 - Apr 2004 US Euro area Japan Sources: EcoWin / National statistics

  7. Prices for some commodities measured in USDIndex. 02.01.01 = 100. Daily figures 01.01.03 – 24.05.04 Coal Copper Aluminium The Economist commodity price index Sources: London Metal Exchange / IEA

  8. Consumer prices adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products (CPI-ATE). Jan 01- Apr 04. Projections Feb 04 - Dec 06 from IR 1/04. 12-month rise. Per cent Goods and services produced in Norway CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  9. Projected consumer price inflation2002 Q2 - 2004 Q2 In 2 years In 5 years Employees' organisations Employers' organisations Experts Experts Employees' organisations Employers' organisations Source: TNS Gallup

  10. Import-weighted exchange rate (I-44)1)Daily figures. 3 Nov 2003 – 24 May 2004 IR 1/04 CPI Monetary policy meeting 21 April 1) A falling curve denotes an appreciation of the krone Source: Norges Bank

  11. At 24 May At 20 April Forward rate in Norway and among trading partnersMay 2004 - December 2007 Forward rate Norway Forward rate trading partners Source: Norges Bank

  12. Index of commodity consumption1995 = 100. Seasonally adjusted volume. Jan 01 - Mar 04 2004 2003 2002 Source: Statistics Norway

  13. Number of unemployed (LFS), number of registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes.Percentage of the labour force. Seasonally adjusted. Jan 95 - Apr 04 Registered unemployed and labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway, the Directorate of Labour and Norges Bank

  14. Employed persons and person-weeksSeasonally adjusted. In millions Employment (left-hand scale) Person weeks1) (right-hand scale) 1) Person-weeks of 37.5 hours Source: Statistics Norway

  15. Revised National Budget 2004

  16. Consumer pricesin the US, the euro area, the UK, Sweden and China. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 2000 - Apr 2004 Sweden (UND1X) Euro area (HICP) US (CPI excl. food and energy) UK (HICP) China Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Eurostat, Office for National Statistics, Statistics Sweden and EcoWin

  17. CPI-ATE. Historical developments (blue) and projections from IR 1/04 (red).Seasonally adjusted 3-month moving average, annualised, and 12-month rise1). Oct 2003 – Nov 2004 Projections 1) The bars show the 3-month moving average.The curves show the 12-month rise The striped bar shows the new projections for April and May due to new history Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  18. Krone exchange rate1) and oil price (USD/barrel)1 Jan 2003 – 24 May 2004 Oil price (left-hand scale) Krone exchange rate (right-hand scale) 1) I-44. A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone Source: Norges Bank

  19. Norges Bank Regional Network • Activity levels are increasing in most industries • The growth outlook for the next six months is considered favourable • Moderate growth in investment plans for the private and public sector • Employment in the business sector is rising moderately with the exception of manufacturing • Employment in the public sector and manufacturing is reported to be approximately unchanged • Annual wage growth is projected to be lower in 2004 than in 2003 • Profitability is reported to have improved in the business sector

  20. Business sentiment indicator for manufacturingSeasonally adjusted diffusion index1). 1997 Q1 – 2004 Q1 1) A value of less than 0 implies that the majority of industrial leaders expect a weaker outlook in the next quarter. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

  21. Household confidence indicator1999 Q1 - 2004 Q2. Unadjusted figures. Total Personal financial situation Country's economic situation Source: TNS Gallup

  22. 30% 50% 70% 90% Projections and uncertainty for CPI-ATE. Inflation Report 1/04. 12-month rise. Per cent. Jan 01 - Dec 05 Actual The bands in the fan indicate different probabilities for developments in the CPI-ATE. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank

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