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Executive Board meeting 31 May 2006. Growth forecasts Consensus Forecasts Forecasts for GDP growth published at different times. Per cent. 2006. 2007. Source: Consensus Forecasts. Equities and commodities Indices, 1 January 2006 = 100. Daily figures. 1 January – 29 May 2006. Equities.
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Growth forecasts Consensus ForecastsForecasts for GDP growth published at different times. Per cent 2006 2007 Source: Consensus Forecasts
Equities and commoditiesIndices, 1 January 2006 = 100. Daily figures. 1 January – 29 May 2006 Equities Commodities Metals IR1/06 IR1/06 Norway Gold Emerging markets EUR Oil US Japan Sources: STOXX, S&P500, Nikkei, Oslo Stock Exchange, FTSE and EcoWin
Metal pricesUSD.Indices, 1 Jan 2001 = 100. Daily figures. 1 Jan 2001 - 26 May 2006 Copper Nickel Aluminium Zinc Source: EcoWin
Spread between US government bonds and government bonds of emerging economies1)Basis points. 1.1.2000 – 29.5.2006 Year to date 1) JP Morgan Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI). The series includes Argentina, Brazil, Bulgaria, Ecuador, Mexico, Panama, Peru, Poland, Russia and Venezuela. Source: EcoWin
Consumer prices (CPI/HICP)12-month change. January 1997 – April 2006. Per cent US Euro area UK Japan Source: EcoWin/National statistics
Core inflationCPI/HICP-core. 12-month change. January 1997 - April 2006. Per cent US Euro area UK Japan 1) US: CPI excl. food and energy, Japan: CPI excl. fresh food Euro area and UK : CPI excl. energy, food, alcohol and tobacco Source: EcoWin/National statistics
29 May 2006 24 April 2006 Actual and expected key rates1) UK Norway Sweden Euro area US 1) Not adjusted for credit risk Sources: Reuters and Norges Bank
Oil price Brent Blend and futures prices USD per barrel. Daily figures. January 02 – December 08 24 April 2006 26 May 2006 Sources: Norges Bank and EcoWin
IEA forecasts for growth in oil demand and output in 2006 Changes in million barrels per day on previous year Global demand growth Non-OPEC output growth Time of forecast Source: International Energy Agency
3-month interest rate differential and import-weighted exchange rate (I-44) 1). January 2002 – December 2009 I-44, (right-hand scale) Average 2 - 30 May Weighted 3-month interest rate differential (left-hand scale) 29 May 2006 15 March 2006 24 April 2006 1) A rising curve denotes an appreciation of the krone. Sources: Bloomberg and Norges Bank
Various inflation indicators12-month change. January 2002 – April 2006. Per cent CPI Weighted median 20 per cent trimmed mean CPI-ATE1) 1) Adjusted for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
CPI-ATE1)Total and broken down into imported and domestically produced goods and services2) Historical inflation and projections IR 1/06 (broken line). 12-month change. Per cent Goods and services produced in Norway (0.7) CPI-ATE Imported consumer goods (0.3) 1) CPI-ATE: CPI adjusted for tax changes and excluding energy products. A further adjustment is made for the estimated effect of reduced maximum day-care rates from January 2006. 2) Norges Bank's calculations. Sources: Statistics Norway and Norges Bank
Number of unemployedLFS, registered unemployed and persons on labour market programmes. In thousands. Seasonally adjusted Registered unemployed and on labour market programmes LFS unemployment Registered unemployed Sources: Statistics Norway and the Directorate of Labour
Business tendency survey Indicator of resource shortages. Smoothed. Per cent. 83 Q1 – 06 Q1 Source: Statistics Norway
New orders construction Trend. Value index, 2000 = 100. 2002 Q1 - 2006 Q1 Construction Dwellings Other buildings Source: Statistics Norway
Credit growthTotal credit, mainland Norway (C3). Domestic credit to households (C2). 12-month growth. Per cent Total enterprise sector credit Households Total credit Source: Norges Bank
Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario and market expectations regarding the sight deposit rate1)Per cent. 06 Q2 – 09 Q4 Baseline scenario IR 1/06 Market 29 May 2006 1) Derived from estimated forward rates. A credit risk premium and technical difference of 0.20 percentage point were deducted in calculating the sight deposit rate. The grey shaded interval shows the highest and lowest interest rates in the market's sight deposit rate scenario in the period 12 – 29 May 06. Source: Norges Bank
30% 50% 70% 90% Sight deposit rate in baseline scenario from Inflation Report 1/06 with fan chartPer cent. Quarterly figures. 04 Q1– 09 Q4 Source: Norges Bank
Monetary Policy Strategy - Inflation Report 1/06 • The Executive Board's assessment is that the sight deposit rate should be in the interval 2¼ – 3¼ per cent in the period to the publication of the next Inflation Report on 29 June, conditional on economic developments that are broadly in line with the projections. • The interest rate may gradually – in small, not too frequent steps – be brought back towards a more normal level. The objective of bringing inflation back to target and anchoring inflation expectations nevertheless implies that monetary policy remains expansionary.