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Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments. SEMCOG 2040 Regional Forecast. Presentation to Urban Land Institute-Larsen Center for Leadership November 15, 2012. Real Estate Development Driven by Regional Socio-economic Changes. Building Permits and Vacancy Rates, SE Michigan, 2000-2011.

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Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

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  1. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

  2. SEMCOG 2040 Regional Forecast

    Presentation to Urban Land Institute-Larsen Center for Leadership November 15, 2012
  3. Real Estate Development Driven by Regional Socio-economic Changes Building Permits and Vacancy Rates, SE Michigan, 2000-2011 Source: SEMCOG
  4. Michigan Is Leading the RecoveryEmployment Change, 3rd Quarters, 2009-2011 Employment Percent Change High-wage Industries (Average > 57,000 in 2010$) Total Employment Data Source: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, UM. Wage and salary employment only.
  5. Employment Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040 2010 1990 2040 2000 2,835,170 2,786,082 Employment 2010 2,484,251 1990 2,478,460 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  6. We Must Grow Jobs in Knowledge-Based and Export-Oriented IndustriesJobs by Major Sector, SE Michigan, 1990-2040 2040 1990 2010 Knowledge-based, export-oriented services Health/Social services Government Retail Manufacturing Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  7. Population ForecastSoutheast Michigan, 1990-2040 2000 4,833,368 2010 1990 2040 4,742,083 Population 2010 4,704,743 1990 4,590,468 2,786,082 Employment Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  8. Change of Population ComponentsAnnual Average, Southeast Michigan 1990-2000 2000-2010 2020-2040 2010-2020 = = + + + + - - - - = =
  9. Declining Birth RatesNumber of Births per 1,000 people, 2002-2010 Change in rate points (births/1000 people) Increase in birth rate 0.1 to 1 point decrease 1.1 to 2 point decrease 2.1 to 3 point decrease More than 3 point decrease Source: SEMCOG Analysis of Michigan Department of Health Data
  10. Michigan Has Less In-Migration2010 Domestic Migration Rates U.S. Inter-State Migration Rates Out Migration from Michigan Into Michigan Age Source: State Demographer's Analysis of 2010 ACS Data
  11. A More Diverse Region Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 2010 2040 White Black Asian, Multi-racial, AIAN, and Other Hispanic Source: Census 2010, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  12. Black Asian White Race and Ethnicity Southeast Michigan, 2010 Hispanic 1 Dot = 100 persons Source: Census 2010
  13. More Racial and Ethnic Diversity, 2000-2010 Race/Ethnic Population with Largest Gain by Block Group Asian Black Hispanic White Loss among all race/ethnic groups Sources: SEMCOG, Census 2000 and 2010
  14. More Development of Ethnic Stores? China Mexico Poland Arab
  15. Significant Aging Population Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 2010 2040 Baby Boomers Echo Boomers Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  16. Population Change by AgeSoutheast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 Increase Decrease Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  17. Less than 10% 10% to 14.9% 15% to 19.9% 20% to 24.9% 25% to 29.9% 30% or more Senior Population ChangePercent of Population Age 65+, 2010 and 2040 2010 2040
  18. Smaller HouseholdsSoutheast Michigan, 1960-2040 3.49 in 1960 2.51 in 2010 Persons per Household Source: Census, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  19. HouseholdsSoutheast Michigan, 2010-2040
  20. Implications on Real Estate DevelopmentMore Schools Become Senior Housing?
  21. Total Employment, Baseline,Higher and Lower AlternativesSoutheast Michigan, 1990-2040 2040 1990 2010 2,940,935 2000 2,835,170 2,786,082 2,675,296 1990 2,478,460 2010 2,484,251 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  22. Regional Forecast Summary The region is recovering from a decade-long deep recession. The recovery will be longer and slower than in the past. Growth will be modest, from 2010 to 2040: Employment up 12% (302,000) Population up 1% (37,000) Households up 6% (110,000)
  23. Significantly Less GrowthAverage Annual Household Change Annual Change 2010-2040 Annual Change 1990-2010 Average Annual Household Change <= 0 1 – 100 101 – 300 > 300 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast
  24. Success Won’t Be Defined By Amount of Growth Diversifying economy should continue by developing knowledge-based and export-oriented industries maintaining a strong presence in our key auto industry An aging and more diverse population will reconfigure public & private services demand different types of development Improve quality of life higher income vs. more people better neighborhoods vs. more development
  25. Xuan Liu, Ph.D. Manager, Data Analysis Liu@semcog.org (313) 324-3441 Southeast Michigan Council of Governments 535 Griswold St., Suite 300 Detroit, MI 48226 www.semcog.org
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