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Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

Southeast Michigan Council of Governments. 2040 Regional Forecast Preliminary Results (For Review Only). December 2011. Why Forecast to 2040 ?. Understand trends Inform local officials and others Support regional and local planning Forecast future infrastructure needs,

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Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

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  1. Southeast Michigan Council of Governments

  2. 2040 Regional ForecastPreliminary Results(For Review Only) December 2011

  3. Why Forecast to 2040 ? • Understand trends • Inform local officials and others • Support regional and local planning • Forecast future infrastructure needs, e.g., transportation needs

  4. Michigan Is Leading the Recovery Source: Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics, UM. Wage and salary employment only.

  5. SEMCOG 2040 Forecast Schedule • Forecast for Total Region • Breakdown by Community • Local Review and Input: Nov- Dec 2011 • GA Adoption: March 2012 • Input for 2040 Transportation Plan, July 2012.

  6. Topics • Regional Outlook, 2040 • Employment • Population • Households • Community Forecasts, 2020 • Instructions on Local Review and Input • Discussions

  7. Real GDP/Capita Growth Is Strong in Near TermAverage Annual Change, SE Michigan, 1990-2040 Note: 2005 dollars.

  8. Employment and Population Southeast Michigan, 1990-2040 4,740,579 Population 2,788,601 Employment Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast (Draft)

  9. Population

  10. Components of Population ChangeSoutheast Michigan = + + + + = + = = = - - - - - 2000-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-2040

  11. More People Moving Out Than InMichigan, 2009-2010 Domestic Migration Rates Out from Michigan Into Michigan Source: American Community Survey, 2010

  12. Out-Migration Similar to U.S.2009-2010 Domestic Migration Rates U.S. Inter-State Migration Rates Out from Michigan Source: American Community Survey, 2010

  13. Michigan Has Less In-Migration2009-2010 Domestic Migration Rates U.S. Inter-State Migration Rates Into Michigan Source: American Community Survey, 2010

  14. Immigration Helps New EconomyPercent College Graduates, Age 25+, 2010 Source: 2010 American Community Survey

  15. Race and Hispanic Origin Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 2010 2040 White Black Asian, Multi-racial, AIAN, and Other Hispanic Source: Census 2010, SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  16. Population Change by Age Southeast Michigan, 2010 and 2040 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  17. HouseholdsSoutheast Michigan, 2010-2040 Households over 65 • Households under 65, no children • Households under 65, with children Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  18. Employment

  19. We Must Grow Jobs in Knowledge-Based and Export-Oriented IndustriesJobs by Major Sector, SE Michigan, 1991-2040 Knowledge-based, export-oriented services Health/Social services Government Retail Manufacturing Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast

  20. Alternative Forecasts

  21. Total Employment, Baseline,Higher and Lower AlternativesSoutheast Michigan, 1990-2040 2,940,935 2000 2,835,170 2,788,601 1990 2,478,460 2,675,296 2010 2,484,265 Source: SEMCOG 2040 Forecast (Draft)

  22. Regional Forecast Summary • The region is recovering from a decade-long deep recession. The recovery will be longer and slower than in the past. • Growth will be modest, from 2010 to 2040: • Employment up 12% (304,000), • Population up 1% (35,000), and • Households up 6% (110,000) • An aging population and lack of in-migration will • limit labor force in the long run, and • reconfigure services • Diversifying economy should continue by • developing knowledge-based and export-oriented industries, and • maintaining a strong presence in our key auto industry

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