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Dairy Outlook 2014 Dr. Marin Bozic

Dairy Outlook 2014 Dr. Marin Bozic. Minnesota Dairy Statistics: 2013 vs. 2012. In Focus: Minnesota Dairy Herds By Size. FMMO 30 Dairy Statistics: 2013 vs. 2012. Clas s I Utilization Across Time and Space. Commercial Disappearance. Dairy Sales: Fluid Milk.

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Dairy Outlook 2014 Dr. Marin Bozic

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  1. Dairy Outlook 2014 Dr. Marin Bozic

  2. Minnesota Dairy Statistics: 2013 vs. 2012

  3. In Focus: Minnesota Dairy Herds By Size

  4. FMMO 30 Dairy Statistics: 2013 vs. 2012

  5. Class I Utilization Across Time and Space

  6. Commercial Disappearance

  7. Dairy Sales: Fluid Milk Fluid Milk Sales in 2013 projected 1.5 billion lbs (2.8%) lower than in 2012.

  8. In Focus: Greek Yogurt • Greek yogurt volume up 49.5% vs 2012. • Greek yogurt market share 31%, up from 22.5% last year. • Drinkable Yogurts up 10% over 2012. • The number of new drinkable yogurt product • introductions increased from 31 in 2011 to 115 in 2012. Source: DMI, Multi-Outlet Retail Milk, Cheese and Yogurt Sales Snapshots, September, 2013

  9. Dairy Exports • Dairy exports equivalent to 58 days of U.S. milk production. • Dairy exports keep 1.4 million U.S. cows busy throughout the year.

  10. New Zealand Drought Propelled U.S. Dairy Exports

  11. New Zealand Drought Propelled U.S. Dairy Exports Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  12. New Zealand Production Shocks  U.S. Dairy Exports Risks

  13. Feed Costs On the Decline

  14. 20+ Percent Chance Corn Will Fall Below $4.00/bu

  15. Milk Production To Rebound

  16. Milk Production To Rebound Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  17. Class III milk price 50-75 cents lower, with a chance of meatballs

  18. Forward Income over Feed Costs Margins Look Excellent

  19. China Imports will either Make or Break the Market in 2014 Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  20. Market Still Expected to Be Tight Source: USDEC Dairy Outlook 2014

  21. What does this all mean for Minnesota? My forecast is for 2014 Minnesota mailbox milk price to be $19.10, with more downside risk than upside potential - with 80% confidence I predict it will be between $17.00 and $20.00.

  22. U.S. Dairy Policy Outlook The Critical Two Questions: For Democrats: Is No Deal better than Raw Deal? For Republicans: Can they get more after the elections?

  23. Dairy Outlook 2014 Midwest Dairy Expo St Cloud, MN December 4, 2013 Dr. Marin Bozic mbozic@umn.edu Department of Applied Economics University of Minnesota-Twin Cities 317c Ruttan Hall 1994 Buford Avenue St Paul, MN 55108 Photo Credits: Title Slide: Orange Patch Dairy, Sleepy Eye, MN Credits Slide: Zweber Family Farms, Elko, MN

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