Human Security and Climate Change: the Ethical Challenge

1. Arthur Lyon Dahl Ph.D. International Environment Forum (IEF) http://iefworld.org/ Fifth ECPD International Conference Brioni Islands, Croatia 30 October 2009 International Environment Forum Human Securityand Climate Change:the Ethical Challenge

2. TemperatureTrends

3. Projected Temperature Increase 2100

4. We are all responsible for climate change • Everyone benefiting from the burning of fossil fuels • Everyone involved in land clearing or benefiting from land use changes • How much we are responsible depends on our country of residence, lifestyle and consumption patterns, with the rich most responsible • The poor will be the greatest victims of climate change, while contributing the least • This is an ethical dilemma

5. Threat to Human Security • If climate change goes unchecked, its effects will be catastrophic “on the level of nuclear war”. • ‘The security dimension will come increasingly to the forefront as countries begin to see falls in available resources and economic vitality, increased stress on their armed forces, greater instability in regions of strategic import, increases in ethnic rivalries, and a widening gap between rich and poor’. International Institute for Strategic Studies, Strategic Survey 2007 (September 2007)

6. December-February June-August Percent change 1900-1999 to 2000-2099 IPCC 2007 Predicted changes in precipitation

7. Climate change in the Balkans Impacts greater in the south • Croatia: T +1-2° in 2050, 2-3° in 2080; P +2-6% in 2050, 6-10% in 2080 • FYR Macedonia: T +1.5%° in 2050, 1.7-3° in 2080; P -2% in 2050, -2-4% in 2080 • Albania: T +1-2° in 2050, 2-4° in 2080; P -4-6% in 2050, -6-12% in 2080 Europe's Environment: The Fourth Assessment 2007, p. 150

8. Human Impacts of Climate Change • Increased damage from extreme weather events: floods, droughts, cyclones • Less winter snowfall, water shortages in summer, increased wildfires • Changing conditions for agriculture and forestry, shifting fish stocks • Sea level rise, flooding low-lying areas and islands • Millions of environmental refugees (200-500m)

9. A 'perfect storm' by 2030 • UK Chief Scientist (19 March 2009): the world faces a 'perfect storm' of problems in 2030 as food, energy and water shortages interact with climate change to produce public unrest, cross-border conflicts and mass migrations

10. Effect on the economy • The Stern Report estimated the annual cost of uncontrolled climate change at more than $660 billion (5 to 20% of global GDP, as compared to 1% for control measures for greenhouse gases).

11. Present institutions have failed to address such global challenges • No politician will sacrifice short-term economic welfare • Deep social divisions within societies and between countries prevent united action in the common interest • Our present economic system is driving us in the wrong direction

12. - The belief that there is no limit to nature's capacity to fulfil any demand made on it is false A culture which attaches absolute value to expansion, to acquisition, and to the satisfaction of people's wants must recognise that such goals are not, by themselves, realistic guides to policy (based on The Prosperity of Humankind, Bahá'í International Community, 1995) Economic thinking is challenged by the environmental crisis (including climate change)

13. - Materialism's gospel of human betterment produced today's consumer culture pursuing ephemeral goals - For the small minority of people who can afford them, the benefits it offers are immediate, and the rationale unapologetic - The breakdown of traditional morality has led to the triumph of animal impulse, as instinctive and blind as appetite - Selfishness becomes a prized commercial resource; falsehood reinvents itself as public information; greed, lust, indolence, pride - even violence - acquire not merely broad acceptance but social and economic value (based on Baha'i International Community, One Common Faith, 2005) Action on climate change must address this ethical level Climate change is driven by our consumer culture

14. Mitigation of climate change poses real financial, technological and political challenges. But it also asks profound moral and ethical questions of our generation. In the face of clear evidence that inaction will hurt millions of people and consign them to lives of poverty and vulnerability, can we justify inaction? No civilized community adhering to even the most rudimentary ethical standards would answer that question in the affirmative.... UNDP Human Development Report 2007/2008, p. 68 Moral and ethical challenge

15. Economics has ignored the broader context of humanity's social and spiritual existence, resulting in: - Corrosive materialism on the one hand - Persistent poverty among the masses on the other The ultimate function of economic systems should be to equip the peoples and institutions of the world with the means to achieve the real purpose of development: that is, the cultivation of the limitless potentialities latent in human consciousness. (adapted from Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development, 1998) A more ethical economics

16. - further a dynamic, just and thriving social order - are strongly altruistic and cooperative in nature - provide meaningful employment - help to eradicate poverty in the world (Bahá'í International Community, Valuing Spirituality in Development. 1998) Only such a system will give the right signals for challenges like climate change and sustainability We need new economic models that

17. Only development programmes that are perceived by the masses of humanity as meeting their needs and as being just and equitable in objective can hope to engage their commitment, upon which implementation depends (based on Baha'i International Community, Prosperity of Humankind) Justice and Equitynecessary for actionon climate change

18. Collaborative Program on theEthical Dimensions of Climate ChangeBuenos Aires Declaration on the Human Dimensions of Climate Change - COP of UNFCCC 2004. http://rockethics.psu.edu/climate/declaration.pdf • An ethically based global consensus on climate change may prevent further disparities between rich and poor, and reduce potential international tension that will arise from climate-caused food and water scarcities and perceived inequitable use of the global atmospheric commons as a carbon sink.

19. Faith-based Action Plans for Climate Change • The Alliance of Religions and Conservation (ARC) and UNDP have invited the 11 major religions to prepare long-term action plans on climate change and the natural environment • These will be presented on 2-4 November 2009 at Windsor Castle co-hosted by the UN Secretary-General and Prince Philip • see http://www.arcworld.org/

20. Harness all available sources of energy in the region Reduce environmental impact to sustainable limits Accelerate the transition to reduce the shock Support global governance mechanisms to manage this global challenge Build a strong sense of community and solidarity within the region and with the outside world Share the cost, effort and benefits with equity and justice Ways forward in the Balkans

21. Climate change may be the common threat that brings governments and peoples in the Balkans to work together in their collective interest An ethical approach will be essential to convince all of us to act