Looking in the Mirror : Population Studies Related Disciplines in the NZ Workforce 1981 to 2001

1. Key Points Looking in the Mirror : Population Studies Related Disciplines in the NZ Workforce1981 to 2001 Presidential Address to the Population Association of New Zealand 2005 Conference By James Newell (MERA) Auckland University, Auckland (NZ) 30th June 2005

2. Who is likely to use demography and perhaps have an interest in PANZ? • Tradition : current PANZ president – essay on some demographic topic as part of the biennial conference • Mansoor Khawaja 2003 PANZ Conference - rich tapestry of long term New Zealand demographic trends • Arvind Zodegar 2001 PANZ Conference – essay on projected future aging of the NZ population • Me? • Apply a bit of demography to ourselves as a professional network • Who is likely to have some engagement with population studies? • What can we deduce from the Census of Population and Dwellings?

3. Context for the information presented • Long term interest in pushing the envelope in statistics on occupational, industry, qualifications dimensions to the work force • Last two years been developing a first approximation to a family of “high resolution” 1981 to 2001 statistical series on occupations, industries, qualification level and field of study • These results are extend from my own initiative supported by three eky projects. • Ministry of Education 1981-2001 Profiling of NZ human educational capital accumulation trends • Department of Labour Future of Work Project on 1991-2001 Occupational Workforce Case Studies • Taylor Baines Associates : PGSF Multiple Job Holding Research Programme

4. Overview • Big picture – overall trends in educational attainment and employment growth by occupation • Changing levels of educational attainment by age, sex and ethnic group • Focus on selected educational attainment fields and their distribution across occupations • Rough age, sex and ethnic profiling of these areas of higher population studies relevance

5. Clues to Population Studies Related Disciplines? • Occupations (Industries?) • Currently mainly 3 digit level so far • Field of Study of Highest Educational Qualification Level Attained • Used 3 digit level but 4 digit offers most potential after aggregating some categories • Highest Educational Qualification Level Attained • Fairly consistent series for degree level qualifications which is a prerequisite for professional work

6. Population Studies?What Disciplines? • Demographic and Population Studies • Human Geography • Economics • Infrastructure and Service Forecasting and Modelling • Epidemiology, Community Health and Health Planning • Education Planning • Labour Market Policy • Migration Studies and Policy Development • Resource Management and Planning • National, Regional, Local and Community Development Planning

7. Context What is the big picture – overall trends by Qualification Level, Occupation and Field of Study?

8. Changes in Employment by Occupation 1981 to 2001Change in Occupations grouped by NZSEI (Socio-economic Indexof Occupations)

9. Intercensal Growth in Jobs by NZSEI Groupings of Occupations 1981 - 2001

10. Key Features of Occupational Change by NZSEI Gpings 1981 - 2001 • 1981 – 1986 : Highest growth High SEI and slightly lower growth lowest SEI • 1986 – 1991 : Highgrowth in High SEI and big decrease in low SEI • 1991 – 1996 : Across the boardhigh growth in all SEI • 1996 – 2001 : High growth in Medium - HighSEI and drop in lowest SEI

11. Trends in the Highest Level of Educational Attainment

12. Highest Educational Qualification Level (%) 1981 to 2001

13. Main Points – Degree Qualifications • The proportion of New Zealanders with a bachelor degree tripled between 1981 and 2001. • Most of this increase in educational capital occurred since 1991. • The 1991 to 1996 saw most rapid increase in bachelor level qualifications from 4.2 to 6.4% • closely followed by the increase from 6.4 to 8.1% between 1996 and 2001. • The proportion of the population with a higher degree almost doubled from about 2% in 1981 to 3.7% 2001. • Most of the increase took place between 1991 and 1996.

14. Percent with a Degree by Age 1981 to 2001

15. Percent with a Degree by Age and Birth Year Cohort

16. Net Intercensal Change in the Percent with a Degree Qualification by Age Cohort : 1981 to 2001

17. Degree Qualifications by Age • The proportion gaining a university degree level qualification between ages 15-19 and 20-24 increased from 6% over the 1981 to 1986 period up to 14% between 1996 and 2001. • The proportion gaining a degree qualification between ages 20-24 and 25-29 years increased from 4% over the 1981 to 1986 period up to 8% between 1996 and 2001. • The net increase in the proportion of NZ residents who gained degrees at age 30 or older was highest between 1991 and 1996, slightly lower between 1996 and 2001 and lowest between 1986 and 1991.

18. Percent of Males and Females with any Degree by Age Group in 2001

19. Intercensal change in the % with a degree qualification by age cohort and sex: 1981 - 2001

20. Gender Differences in Educational Qualification Trends 1981-2001 • 1996 saw 12.8% proportion of 20 to 24 year old females having gained a degree compared with only 10.2% of males. • By 2001 the proportion of females aged 20 to 24 years with a degree reached 16.7% compared with only 11.1% of males. • Projected forward, this growing margin between female and male tertiary educational attainment will result in the proportion of females overall with a degree greatly surpassing that of males. • Gender differences in the net increase in degree qualification at 30 years of age or older have fluctuated over the 1981 to 2001 period. • It may be that some of this is explained by variation in net international migration by gender.

21. Percent with a Degree by ethnic group and gender: 1981 - 2001

22. Gender Differences in Educational Qualification Trends by Ethnic Group 1981-2001 • In 1981, males had higher levels of post-secondary qualifications than females. • By 2001, these differences had narrowed overall and reversed amongst Maori and Pacific Islanders. • The period since 1991 has seen much faster increase in tertiary qualification levels amongst females than males.

23. Percent of Population with a Degree by Ethnic Group

24. Educational Capital Accumulation by Ethnic Group • The 1981 to 2001 period saw an increase the proportion reaching either the 'non-degree post-secondary' and 'university degree' levels by all ethnic groups. • Progress has been made in reducing inequalities in educational achievement between different ethnic groups • Large gaps remain.

25. Field of Study Trends NZSCED Overall – Level 2

26. % Distribution by Field of Study - 1981, 1996 and 2001 (Degree Level)

27. Change in Field of Study – 1981-1996 and 1996-2001 (Degree Only)

28. Focusing in on Population StudiesSelected Fields of Study which will have an interest in or capability in Population Studies?

29. Fields of Study Pt 1

30. Fields of Study Pt 2

31. Field of Study Trends 1981-2001

32. What Occupations are People with these Fields of Study Employed in?

33. Occupational Distribution of “Studies in Human Society (0903)” Field of Attainment

34. Occupational Distribution of “Economics and Econometrics (0919)” Field of Attainment

35. Occupational Distribution of “Architecture and Urban Environment (0401)” Field of Attainment

36. Occupational Distribution of “Public Health (0613)” Field of Attainment

37. Changing Participation of Women

38. Trends in Participation of Women Female by Field of Study

39. Changing Youth Choices

40. Changes in the % 20 to 29 years of age by Field of Study

41. Changing Participation By NZers of Various Ethnic Origins

42. Trends in Participation of Maori by Field of Study Attained

43. Trends in Participation of Pacific Island by Field of Study Attained

44. Trends in Participation of Asian NZers by Field of Study Attained

45. Trends in Participation of NZers of Other Ethnicity by Field of Study Attained

46. Occupations – Potential for further analysis

47. Selected 5 digit level Occupations

48. Participation by New Settlers

49. Percent of Degree Qualifications Gained Overseas by Field of Study

50. Conclusions • Not easy to separate out Population Studies! • Context is one of very high growth in levels of attainment of degree qualifications, part of international trend • NZ catching up on being not especially high in degree qualification levels although very high in non-degree post-secondary levels but slipping) • Higher rate of growth in level of attainment of women catching up to and passing levels of post-secondary qualifications of men emerging for youngest age groups • High growth in levels of attainment of Maori and Pacific Island but still far behind European population • Particular feature is Maori and Pacific Island are not as likely to go straight on to a degree or other post-secondary training – key difference • Climate has been one of large growth in high skill occupations throughout – even when overall labour market is negative, static or slow