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9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad , Netherlands 8-9 April 2014

9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad , Netherlands 8-9 April 2014. EFAS Partner ( Name of the partner ) Report on floods in 2013 & feedback on EFAS alerts and products. EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2013. Present briefly floods that happened in 2013: EFAS alerts in 2013: 9 For H ungary: 3

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9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad , Netherlands 8-9 April 2014

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  1. 9-th Annual EFAS Meeting Lelystad, Netherlands8-9 April 2014 EFAS Partner (Name of the partner) Report on floods in 2013 & feedback on EFAS alerts and products

  2. EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2013 • Present briefly floods that happened in 2013: • EFASalertsin 2013: 9 • ForHungary: 3 • ForothercountriesintheDanubecatchmentabove Hungary: 3 • ForothercountriesintheDanubecatchmentbelowHungary: 3 • EFASwatchin 2013: 19 • ForHungary: 5 • ForothercountriesintheDanubecatchmentabove Hungary: 9 • ForothercountriesintheDanubecatchmentbelow Hungary: 5 • Missing alertsin 2013: • For Hungary: more than 15 • For other countries in the Danube catchment aboveHungary: more than 20 • Otherissues 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  3. 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands EFAS FLOOD ALERT AND WATCH REPORTS

  4. APPROPRIATE EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example) Where? Issued: March16201309:07 EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Lower Koros section (Danube basin) from Friday 22nd of March 2013 onwards. Lead time:within 6 days.-------------------------- According to the latest forecasts (2013-03-15 12 UTC) up to 80% EPS (VAREPS) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 2% EPS (VAREPS) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is lower and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable.The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate lower risk for flooding than VAREPS. The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 24th of March 2013. When? Earliestpeak 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  5. APPROPRIATE EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example) Körösök Catchment of ’Körösök’ is appr. 27500km2 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  6. APPROPRIATE EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example) Waterlevelexceededthetreshold of alertlevel 1, issued alarm wasappropriate 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  7. FALSE EFAS WATCH REPORTSIN 2013 (an example) Where? Issued: October02201307:27 EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Romania - Mures, below Tirnava (Danube basin) from Wednesday2nd of October 2013 onwards. Lead time: within 6 days. -------------------------- According to the latest forecasts (2013-10-01 12 UTC) up to 100% EPS (VAREPS and COSMO) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 0% EPS (VAREPS and COSMO) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is comparable and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable. The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate the same risk for flooding than VAREPS.The earliest flood peak is expected for Thursday 3rd of October 2013.This message is only an EFAS FLOOD WATCH because - the time to peak is too close When? Earliestpeak 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  8. FALSE EFAS WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) Maros/Mures Catchment of Maros/Muresis appr. 13000km2 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  9. FALSE EFAS WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) Therewas no flood, false alarm 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  10. Appropriate alert, but wrong earliest peak forecast IN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example) Where? Issued: March28201314:28 EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Lower Koros section (Danube basin) from Tuesday 2nd of April 2013 onwards. Lead time:within 5days.-------------------------- According to the latest forecasts (2013-03-28 00 UTC) up to 98% EPS (VAREPS) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 18% EPS (VAREPS) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is comparable and the DWD deterministic forecast is comparable. The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 7thof April2013. When? Earliestpeak 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  11. Appropriate alert, but wrong earliest peak forecast IN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 (an example) Körösök Catchment of ’Körösök’ is appr. 27500km2 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  12. Appropriate alert, but wrong earliest peak forecast IN EFAS ALERTS IN 2013 – (an example) Waterlevelexceededthetreshold of alertlevel3, issued alarm wasappropriate notthe 1stpeak fromthe2ndof April 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  13. DELAYED EFAS ALERTS/WATCH REPORTSIN 2013 (an example) THERE WAS NO ALERT FOR HUNGARY FOR THE DANUBE DURING JUNE! (Just a delayedwatchonthe 4th of Junefromthesameday) Issued: May31201313:27 EFAS predicts a from medium to high probability of flooding for Austria - Danube (Danube basin, valid for downstream parts ) from Monday 3th of June 2013 onwards. Lead time:within 3 days.-------------------------- According to the latest forecasts (2013-05-31 00 UTC) up to 94% EPS (COSMO) are exceeding the high threshold (> 5 year simulated return period) and up to 31% EPS (COSMO) exceeding the severe threshold (>20 year simulated return period).Compared to the VAREPS mean, the ECMWF deterministic forecast is higher and the DWD deterministic forecast is #lower/comparable/higher#. The higher resolution COSMO-LEPS forecasts indicate higher risk for flooding than VAREPS.The earliest flood peak is expected for Sunday 3rdof June2013. Where? When? 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands Earliestpeak

  14. DELAYED EFAS ALERTS/WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  15. DELAYED EFAS ALERTS/WATCH REPORTS IN 2013 (an example) 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  16. MISSING EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2012/2013 February 2013 Sajó/Slana Rába/Raab Catchment of Rába/Raabis appr. 10000km2 Catchment of Sajó/Slanais appr. 12500km2 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  17. MISSING EFAS ALERTS/WATCHES IN 2012/2013 February 2013 EFAS 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  18. OTHER ISSUES • related to the floods in 2013 that you want to bring up/report: • Issue 1: Legends, description of charts and tables on the homepage ofEFAS should be much more detailed. • Issue 2: Controversial and incorrectdatainthereports, suchas: • EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.06.04 08:03) • ’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary - Danube, section Zala - Drava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 5th of June 2013 onwards. …’ • EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.06.04 08:20)’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Serbia - Danube, section Drau - Tisza, section Zala - Drava (Danube basin) from Wednesday 5th of June 2013 onwards.…’ • EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.06.04 08:20)’… EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Hungary, Serbia and Montenegro - Tisza, section Mures - Tamis and Tisa (Danube basin) from Wednesday 20th of March 2013 onwards.…’ • EFAS FLOOD WATCH REPORT (2013.04.08 08:42)EFAS predicts a high probability of flooding for Romania - Tisza, section Mures - Tamis(Danube basin) from Tuesday 9th of April 2013 onwards. 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

  19. Thank you for your attention! • OVF Hungarian Hydrological Forecasting Service 9-th Annual EFAS meeting, 8-9 April 2014Lelystad, Netherlands

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