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Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, October 10, 2012, San Francisco, CA Global Trading Dispatch

Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, October 10, 2012, San Francisco, CA Global Trading Dispatch. The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader “Treading Water”. Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund Trader San Francisco, October 10, 2012 www.madhedgefundtrader.com.

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Please Stand By for John Thomas Wednesday, October 10, 2012, San Francisco, CA Global Trading Dispatch

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  1. Please Stand By forJohn ThomasWednesday, October 10, 2012, San Francisco, CAGlobal Trading Dispatch The Webinar will begin at 12:00 pm EST

  2. The Mad Hedge Fund Trader“Treading Water” Diary of a Mad Hedge Fund TraderSan Francisco, October 10, 2012www.madhedgefundtrader.com

  3. MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com2012 Schedule October 19 Washington DCOctober 26 San FranciscoNovember 7 HoustonNovember 8 OrlandoJanuary 3, 2013 Chicago

  4. MHFT Global Strategy LuncheonsBuy tickets at www.madhedgefundtrader.com Washington, DCOctober 19 San FranciscoOctober 26

  5. Trade Alert PerformanceNew All Time High! *October MTD +0.39%*2012 YTD +20.5%, Beating the Dow by 9.6%*First 98 weeks of Trading + 60.6%*Versus +10.9% for the Dow AverageA 49.7% outperformance of the index 87 out of 125 closed trades profitable69.6% success rate on closed trades

  6. Portfolio Review

  7. Performance Since Inception-New All Time High+33.1% Average Annualized Return

  8. Testimonial I have been religiously following your letter for the past four years. I value your opinions, knowing they are truly independent and not beholden to a mutual fund or investment bank. Your ability to recognize, and put out actionable advice during market extremes is unique in my experience. Your recent (TLT) long recommendation was a great example. On the heels of the sharp August sell-off, when CNBC and company worried (TLT) was going to 112 and points below, you advised going long based on your IRA account suggestions, I chose the (TLT) October, 2012 $122 calls at $2.76 and then sold them at $4.90 only eight days later for a 77% profit. On a related note, I’ve learned a great deal about reducing portfolio complexity, how to structure and execute conservative trades and manage risk based on your advice and recommendations. Please keep up the great work! Regards, Kevin MurtaughTampa, Florida

  9. The Economy-bad data still coming through *September nonfarm payroll was huge,down from 8.1% to 7.8%*Weekly jobless claims up +4,000 to 367,000*QE3 earning expectations are very low*Is Q3 the trough for earnings?*World Bank downgrades China growth8.2% to 7.7% 2012, 8.6% to 8.1% in 2013*IMF says global growth prospects are bleak*September motor vehicle sales a weak +3.1%,Toyota down 40% on China trouble*All consistent with a low 1.5% GDP growth rate,or lower

  10. German ManufacturingWhy Europe is in a World of HurtHow long until it spreads to the US?

  11. Weekly Jobless ClaimsTrapped in a Sideways RangeBreak 400,000 and the rcession threat is on

  12. Bonds-Still churning at the top *the 1.40% - 1.90% range holds, could be ourrange for years*Look to sell spread spreads outside these ranges*Is the final top in?*$40 billion a month in MBS buyingscares investors out of Treasuries*Record junk issuance continues

  13. (TNX) 1.40%-1.70% Range Holding

  14. (TLT)

  15. Short Treasuries (TBT)See the 1:4 reverse Split

  16. Junk Bonds (HYG)

  17. Municipal Bonds (MUB)-3% yield,Mix of AAA, AA, and A rated bonds

  18. Stocks-The Gridlocked Market *Buyers and sellers have gridlocked market*QE3 raises the floor below stocks, but they won’trise much either*Instead of a Dow 10,000 floor, it is morelike 12,000, the June low*$10 trillion in cash sitting in US bank accounts*$390 billion in stock buy backs supporting market*Romney bump in polls hurts all “RISK ON”assets. No Obama means no Bernankemeans no QE*Investors still chasing yield

  19. (SPY)-Did we just get a double top?Is the (IWM) warning us of trouble?

  20. Buy the November, 2012 (SPY) $150-$155 Bear Put Spread20% Portfolio Weighting Buy 23 November, 2012 $155 puts at………..…….$9.66Sell short 23 November, 2012 $150 puts at…….$5.22Net cost……………………………………………..………….$4.3823 contracts for a 10% weighting in the model $100,000 portfolioProfit: $5.00 - $4.38 = $0.62(23 X $0.62 X 100) = $1,426 = 1.43% returnProfitable with the (SPY) at all points below $150.62,(SPY) now at $146.4

  21. Short (SPY) 12/$150-$155 Put Spread

  22. (QQQ)-NASDAQ

  23. (VIX)-Going to sleep

  24. (AAPL)-Long the 1/$525-575 Call spreadbuy this dip

  25. (GOOG)-Long the December $650-$680 Call Spread

  26. (FCX)

  27. (CAT)

  28. (BAC)-augurs for double top scenario

  29. Russell 2000 (IWM)

  30. Shanghai-Not yet for the double bottom

  31. My Post Fed Shopping ListStocks to buy on the dipNovember, December, January Deep in-the-money Calls Spreads Apple (AAPL)Google (GOOG)Disney (DIS)JP Morgan (JPM)Boeing (BA)Merck (MRK)

  32. The Dollar *QE3 is hugely dollar negative*Euro is rolling over again*Missed the Euro short at $1.32*Yen is still stagnating, gettinga weak dollar push-BOJ says no QE*Ausie rolled over once again onweak China market*The competitive devaluation is on,the race to the bottom

  33. Long Dollar Basket (UUP)Close to the May bottom

  34. Euro (FXE)

  35. Australian Dollar (FXA)Heartbreak Alert!

  36. Japanese Yen (FXY)Look to sell $127-$130 September call spread again

  37. (YCS)Bailed at the Top

  38. Energy-sell oil rallies with (USO) put spreads *Israeli PM asks for snap electiona vote for war?*Iraq-Turkey pipeline bombedis a 1 million b/d pipeline*US sending troops to Jordan-Syria border*Go short on every way rumor, Israeliintelligence told me they will wait until nextsummer to see if Iran sanctions work*Oversupply is overwhelming demand*Slowing China is a big factor*Futures structure says that prices are headed lower*Huge short cover in natural gas, rising at the expense of coal, rumor Obama will ban fracking if elected

  39. Crude-waiting for QE3

  40. (USO)

  41. Natural Gas

  42. Copper (CU)-China bounce

  43. Precious Metals-Run longs in limited risk positionsLong (GLD) 12/$157-$162 Bull call spreadLong (GLD) 12/$160-$165 Bull call spreadLong (SLV) 12/$28-$31 Bull call spread *”RISK OFF” hits the precious metals*Traders selling big winners going into year end*The sideways chop scenario is still on*Emerging market central bank buying is continuing*Romney bump in polls is triggering profit takingin precious metals. No Obama means no Bernankemeans no QE

  44. Gold-long the December $157-$162 call spreadlong the December $160-$165 call spread

  45. Silver-long the December $28-31 call spread

  46. (Platinum) (PPLT)

  47. Palladium (PALL)

  48. The Agslong the (CORN) 11/$50-$55 bear put spread *Charts are clearly rolling over*Trade is out of season*No Major Dept. of Agriculture reports due*Summer Draught boosted prices to very high levels*From hear on extreme weather affectsnext year’s crop, not this year’s*Obama win means ethanol subsidybecome a big target, is 40% of UScorn consumption*Is a short term trade only

  49. (CORN)

  50. Soybeans (SOYB)

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