China, Hong Kong & Taiwan

1. China, Hong Kong & Taiwan Dr. James G. McGann Think Tanks and Civil Societies Program January 2006

2. History of Chinese Policy Advice • Soviet system • Research institutes were tightly bound to ministries • Initially Western China analysts did not consider these institutes “think tanks” • Lack of formal institutions • Mao ruled by virtue of his charismatic authority • In post-Mao era a small number of leaders still made final decision but they also consulted many other officials, experts and local leaders

3. Generations of Think Tanks • Scot Tanner wrote about a first, second and third generations of think tanks in China • First Generation • 1950s, 1960s and 1970s • Soviet system • Second Generation • 1980s, many think tanks reopened or created after the Cultural Revolution • Formed because key leaders felt CCP research was inadequate for rapid reform • Needed more innovative, empirically-based policy options as China entered the world • Third Generation • 1990s – present • Considered “Post-Tiananmen” era

4. The First Generation • During Mao Zedong’s regime • First time China had any type of research institutes • “Policy advice” was actually research supporting government policies already in place • Important first step towards policy research even if the research institutes were so integrated in the government • Ended with the Cultural Revolution • Mao realized the research institutes were gradually becoming independent, so he closed them • Any opposition to Mao was stopped until his death in 1976

5. The Second Generation • Problems • Absence of a generation of scholars • Institutes needed distance from the government for innovation • The Party was distrustful of anything separate from the government • Progress • Ambiguous relationship allowed the institutes to be more flexible in the reforming of politics • Created new policies and waited until the leadership was ready to accept their idea • Enough distance to comfortably support or deny any controversial policy

6. The Third Generation • Tiananmen Square Incident • Many think tanks were closed or became quiet for a period after the incident • The disaster forced many scholars to reflect about the origins of unrest • Socio-economic changes • As the economy opened up so did the amount of outlets for think tanks to publish their ideas • Economic think tanks are the best example of the third generation because they were impacted by both Tiananmen and the socio-economic changes • Progress • Links to leaders have become more ambiguous • Greater exposure to Western theories and techniques • Very gradual emergence of “policy communities”

7. Types of Think Tanks • Government • Direct services to the government • Formulating positions • Designing implementation procedures • Consulting on specific issues • Majority of research institutes are in some way related to the government • University • CASS is the leading academic institution • Less influence and distrusted after Tiananmen • Class-room oriented • More theoretical and historical research • Independent • Small number has recently emerged • Influence is limited but provide a forum for officials to discuss sensitive issues

8. Types of Think Tanks in China *The Universities each have many small institutes but count as a single institute for this graph

9. Areas of Research • International Relations • More interaction with foreigners has led to better IR policy advice • Often shape the foreign views of Chinese foreign policy • Economy • More relevant and important as the economy grows • Leadership (previously Zhu Rongji and now Wen Jaibao) is much more likely to listen to scholarly advice • Military • Although more open today, still very hard to understand • Research topics include: intelligence, weapons, international exchanges and general military research

10. Research Subject Areas

11. Governmental Influence on an Analyst’s Policy Advice • Positional influence • The majority of think tanks are government funded • Their position in the government impacts the type of information they receive • Expertise influence • Many think tanks have a specific region of interest • More importance is placed upon institutes whose region is important to China (such as the United States) • Personal relationships • Arguably the most important impact, yet hardest to document • Close relationships with CCP leadership helps an institutes policies • Experiential influence • Study abroad, living abroad or foreign travel • Officials are more likely to listen to those who have had short abroad encounters (meeting with diplomats, observing different policies)

12. Analysts Influence on the Government • Internal reports • Small group policy meetings • Informal consultations with policy makers • Internal conferences • Appearances in Chinese or Western media • Academic articles or books

13. Problems with Today’s Chinese Think Tanks • Horizontal structure • Joint projects are rare except when a foreign institution coordinates the research • System is “stove-piped” into hierarchies • The most influential institutes are also the most closely linked with the government • Personal relationships are still valued above everything else • Many think tanks are run by previous government officials • Financially unstable • Losing scholars because salaries are low (compared with the growing private sector) • Limited amount of research with small budget • Public is still largely unaware of key issues • Most publications are not widely circulated or read (censorship) • Lack of public debate about important policy issues

14. Hong Kong v Mainland China Think Tanks • HK has more horizontal communication • Annual China-ASEAN Roundtable, organized by the Center of Asian Studies at Hong Kong University • Scholars view HK officials as much more likely to listen to think tanks’ advice • Political party research institutes can influence legislators • Pressure groups influence has decreased drastically since the handover • Many more independent think tanks in HK • Encourages public participation in research • Only one government think tank • Many international think tanks chose HK • They study current events in mainland China • Mainly serve commercial or foreign interest

15. Hong Kong

16. Taiwan v Mainland China Think Tanks • Many more independent think tanks • 2/3 of Taiwan’s think tanks are independent compared with 40% in Hong Kong and 15% in mainland China • Experts allowed to develop policy advice without the government shaping their results • The majority focus on economics and cross-strait relations • Unique think tank interactive system accredited with helping Taiwan overcome the Asian financial crisis • Think tanks attempt to either maintain relations with the mainland or educate the international community about Taiwan • Ex: Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University

17. Taiwan

18. Conclusions • “Three” China analysis • A large number of Hong Kong and Taiwan’s think tanks discuss the inter-China relationships • Mainland China has a smaller number of think tanks dealing with this issue • Independent think tanks • Small number on the mainland means policy advice is almost always influenced by the government • Through their separation from the mainland, the Hong Kong and Taiwan think tank community have experienced more autonomy

19. Bibliography • Chin, James K. “Think Tanks and the Policy Community in Hong Kong.” NIRA Review Summer (2000) 46-51. • Gill, Bates and James Mulvenon. “Chinese Military-Related Think Tanks and Research Institutions.” China Quarterly (2002) 617-624. • Glaser, Bonnie S. and Phillip C. Saunders. “Chinese Civilian Foreign Policy Research Institutes: Evolving Roles and Increasing Influence.” China Quarterly (2002) 597-616. • Lee-in Chen Chiu. “The Role of Scholars and Think Tanks in Taiwan’s Economic Policy-Making Process.” NIRA Review Spring (1999) 41-5. • Li, He. “The Role of Think Tanks in Chinese Foreign Policy.” Problems of Post-Communism 49.2 March/April (2002) 33-43. • Naughton, Barry. “China’s Economic Think Tanks: Their Changing Role in the 1990s.” China Quarterly (2002) 625-635. • Shambaugh, David. “China’s International Relations Think Tanks: Evolving Structure and Process.” China Quarterly (2002) 575-596. • Tanner, M. Scot. “Changing Windows on a Changing China: The Evolving ‘Think Tank’ System and the Case of the Public Security Sector.” China Quarterly (2002) 559-574. • Think Tank Database of the Foreign Policy Research Institute