CASES – Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems

1. CASES – Cost Assessment for Sustainable Energy Systems

2. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

3. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

4. What is CASES CASES is the acronyms of ‘Cost assessment of sustainable energy costs’, which is an European Commission funded Coordination Action. A Coordination Action: aims at promoting and supporting the coordination, cooperation or networking of a range of research and innovation projects or operators for a specific objective, normally to achieve improved integration and coordination of European research for a fixed period of time.

5. What is CASES Types of co-ordinated collaborative activities • studies, analyses, benchmarking exercises; • exchanges and dissemination of information and good practice • organisation of conferences, seminars, meetings; • setting up of common information systems, setting up of expert groups; • definition, organisation and management of joint or common initiatives; • joint memoranda of understanding; • pre-standardisation and standardisation activities in specific fields; • establishment of roadmaps for research in specific topics.

6. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

7. Context • While effort has been devoted in recent years to the estimation of the external costs of energy, more attention is now being paid to the examination of both the private and external costs in one framework. • Energy policy making is concerned with both the supply side and the demand side of energy provision. • The geographical dimension is also important since environmental damage from energy production crosses national borders. • Costs are dynamic: the private costs and the external costs are changing with time, as technologies develop, knowledge about impacts of energy use on the environment increases and individual preferences for certain environmental and other values change. • The least well and least systematically covered area of external cost is the one related to energy security.

8. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • General objective • Detailed objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

9. Objectives General Objective CASES aims to evaluate policy options for improving the efficiency of energy use, underpinning this evaluation with a consistent and comprehensive picture of the full cost of energy, and to make this crucial knowledge available to all stakeholders.

10. Objectives Detailed Objectives • To compile estimates of full costs of the use of different energy sources in EU and selected other countries under agreed energy scenarios to 2030. • To use resulting datasets to undertake comparative cost assessments of introducing alternative policy options over the time period. • To disseminate research findings to energy producers and users and to the policy makers.

11. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Objective one • Objective two • Objective three • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

12. Expected results Objective One will produce: • Best predictions about the evolution of the private costs of major technologies for generating energy from different sources over the next 25 years. • Best estimates of the major environmental external costs of different types of energy in different countries and how will these change in the next 25 years. • Best estimates of the major energy security-related external costs of different types of energy in different countries and of their changes in the next 25 years. • Best estimates of the likely prices of major sources of energy over the next 25 years. • Determination of the greatest uncertainties and of the most relevant research directions for the future.

13. Expected results Objective Two will produce comparative assessments of : • the investment and operational costs of different energy options taking account of only private costs and taking account of private plus external costs. This assessment is dynamic and will provide the implications of different levels of internalisation on the investment decisions and on key social indicators. • the impacts of the use of different methods of decision-making on the selection of projects - e.g. cost-benefit analysis with ‘externality adders’ versus multi-criteria decision analysis tools. • the implications of different taxes/charges on energy and/or on emissions on (a) the degree of internalisation and (b) the comparative cost comparisons, now and over time.

14. Expected results Objective Three will produce: • An interactive web site for the dissemination of project related information (partnership, activities and results, reports and deliverables, useful policy documentation, etc). • An electronic mailing list to ensure prompt, updated and easy communication on project news. • Two stakeholders workshops and a final conference organised to present main results of the project.

15. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

16. Interaction with other projects • This Coordinated Action builds on the formidable amount of research produced by several projects, focused to measure the full costs of the use of different energy sources such as fossil fuels, nuclear energy and renewable energy sources. • CASES will interact with other projects to assess: energy scenarios, external costs and private costs.

17. Interaction with other projects Former and current projects related to CASES: • Projects focused on External Costs of Energy: • ExternE, NewExt and ExternE-Pol, • DIEM, • ECOSIT, • INDES, • MAXIMA • Project focused on both the private and external costs: • NEEDS • Projects focused on energy scenarios: • Primes, • Poles, • NEEDS. • Projects producing national energy models for non EC countries: • Markal (India), • AIM (India), • IPAC (China).

18. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Partners from pre-existing North European member States • Partners from pre-existing Mediterranean member States • Partners from new member States • Partners from associated candidate Countries • Partners from associated non candidate Countries • Partners from INCO DEV Countries • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

19. Partners • The Consortium of the CASES’ Co-ordination Action is composed by twenty-six partners established in twenty States. • Most of the institutions are established for research activities (11) and for higher education (9). The other participants are not qualified in one particular activity but they provide a scientific expertise and carry out complementary activities necessary to achieve the objectives of this Co-ordination Action.

20. Partner Partners from pre-existing North European member States Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI) University of Bath (UBATH) Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands (ECN) Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam-Institute for Environmental Studies (VU/IVM) Wageningen Universiteit (WU) Risoe National Laboratory (RISOE) University of Stuttgart (USTUTT/IER) University of Flensburg (UFLENS) Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO) Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)

21. Partner Observatoire Méditerranéen de l'Energie (OME) Partners from pre-existing Mediterranean member States Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (ISIS) Centro de Investigaciones Energéticas, Medioambientales y Tecnológicas (CIEMAT) National Technical University of Athens (NTUA)

22. Partners Partners from new member States Lithuanian Energy Institute (LEI) University of Warsaw - Warsaw Ecological Economic Center (UWARS) Univerzita Karlova v Praze - Charles University Enviroment Center (CUEC) Partners from associated candidate Countries Energy Agency of Plovdiv (EAP) Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy (TUBITAK)

23. Partners Partners from associated non candidate Countries ECON Analysis AS (ECON), Norway SWECO Grøner as (SWECO), Norway Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), Switzerland Energy Research Institute (ERI), China Fundação COPPETEC (COPPETEC), Brasil Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad (IIMA), India Partners from Developing Countries

24. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

25. Organisation of work

26. Organisation of work Main steps of the project structure: • Agree upon the storylines of three electricity scenarios [WP1] (status quo and two options developments): this will produce as output three reference scenarios; • Calculate average external costs per unit of emission, using Ecosense [WP2, WP3, WP5], and private costs [WP4] on the basis of the reference scenarios when a dynamic element is needed; • Refine scenario definition on the basis of computed external costs by considering full costs per each country/technology given by external costs plus private costs, where external costs are given by average cost calculated by Ecosense times the emission determined under energy scenarios [WP2-7]. This second run will include policy variables in order to facilitate policy assessment [WP8-11]. • Analyse how the policy proposed in WP8-10 are affected by uncertainty in external costs estimates [WP12]. • Draw final conclusions on the final output of the project.

27. Outline of the presentation • What is CASES • Context • Objectives • Expected results • Interaction with other projects • The actors • Organisation of work • Description of Work Packages • Description of dissemination activities

28. Description of Work Packages WP1 Electricity Scenarios

29. WP1 – Electricity scenarios WP1 objective • Provide electricity scenarios up to 2030 for EU-25 countries, Bulgaria, Turkey, Brazil, India and China WP1 partners • OME, France (coordinator) • ECON, Norway • FEEM, Italy • EAP, Bulgaria • TUBITAK, Turkey • COPPETEC, Brazil • IIMA, India • ERI, China

30. WP 1 – Electricity scenarios TASK 2 Energy policy and other drivers for power supply options TASK 1 Parameters having direct influence on the evolution of electricity demand TASK 3 Electricity scenarios by country and primary fuel for 2010, 2020 and 2030

31. WP 1 – Electricity scenarios Parameters having direct influence on the evolution of electricity demand • Economic factors (growth rate, income, etc) • Prices and subsidies (for electricity and competitive final energies) • Structure of electricity demand • Peak load & seasonal variation • Energy intensity • Industry structure • Potential for energy savings and DSM

32. WP 1 – Electricity scenarios Today’s Uncertainties Pro-Gas Volatile fuel prices; divergent environmental commitments; vacillating Governments; industry consolidation Competitive gas for environment & security of supply. EU-level dialogue with producers. Infrastructure support ECON’s European Gas & Power Scenarios Competition Infrastructure investments then global hard landing; Visionary leadership; EU leads liberalization; strong growth w/ volatility Near-term overbuild creates circumstances for re-energizing market liberalization Political uncertainty; high oil prices persist Tough Post-Kyoto settlement Beyond Kyoto Scarcity Tough Post-Kyoto commitments; Governments intervene; Gas as intermediate fuel; Nuclear revival Geo-Political tensions; High fuel prices Governments intervene policies Balkanization of markets

33. WP 1 – Electricity scenarios Electricityscenarios by country and primary fuel for 2010, 2020 and 2030 • Review and assessment of existing scenarios • Use of in-house models when available

34. Description of Work Packages WP2 Human Health Related External Costs of Different Energy Sources

35. WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs WP2 objectives • Collection of life cycle emissions for state-of-the-art conversion technologies • Description of methodology for external costs estimation (human health, materials, crops) • Including methodologies for other areas (eutrophication, acidification, land use change, climate change) into framework and tools • Calculation of marginal costs for state-of-the-art technologies in Germany • Organisation of a joint WP2-7 stakeholder workshop

36. WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs WP2 partners • USTUTT/IER, University of Stuttgart – Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (Co-ordination and main work on emissions, methodology, tools) • PSI, Paul Scherrer Institut (nuclear life cycle and methodologies for assessment of exposure of population with radioactive substances) • ISIS, Istituto di Studi per l’Integrazione dei Sistemi (cooperation concerning stakeholder workshop) Involvement in estimating data on emissions of state of the art technologies outside EU25: • Fundação COPPETEC, Brasil • IIMA, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad • ERI, Energy Research Institute, China • EAP, Energy Agency of Plovdiv, Bulgaria • TUBITAK, Turkiye Bilinsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu – Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy

37. WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs WP2 description of work • Task 2.1: to identify and describe the pressures to the environment stemming from the latest state-of-the-art energy conversion technologies. • Task 2.2: to describe the current state-of-the-art methodology to estimate external costs. • Task 2.3: to incorporate the methodology to cover land use change, acidification and eutrophication, visual intrusion and climate change into the methodology to generate external cost estimates and into the ECOSENSE tool to calculate marginal external costs. Continue…

38. WP2 – Human Health Related External Costs … • Task 2.4: to demonstrate the application of the methodology, by estimating external costs for the different technologies at specific sites in Germany. • Task 2.5: to organise a joint WPs 2-7 workshop for stakeholders, to discuss the methodology to calculate external and private costs and the results for selected sites.

39. EcoSense Flowchart Impact Assessment Emission inventory Air Quality Modelling Valuation Local Model primary pollutants, local scale Physical impacts Concentration / Deposition fields (e.g. increased mortality, crop losses) • Emissions (NOx, SO2, NH3, NMVOC, primary particles...) according to • Source • Location WTM primary pollutants and acid species, regional scale Dose-effect models Environmental damage costs Receptor distribution Monetary unit values - population - crop yield - building materials SROM Ozone formation, Regional scale

40. Description of Work Packages WP3 Non Human Health Related Environmental Costs of Different Energy Sources

41. WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs WP3 objectives • To update the estimates of non-human health related environmental costs of different energy sources based on life cycle impacts for EU and non-EU countries with specific attention to ‘new impacts’ (acidification, eutrophication and visual intrusion); • To discuss and confirm ranges of estimates of environmental costs with representatives of industry.

42. WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs WP3 partners • VU-IVM, Institute for Environmental Studies of the Free University, Amsterdam (WP coordinator) • Sweco Grøner, E-Co Tech Ås, Norway • UW, Wageningen University

43. WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs WP3 Description of work • This WP provides a critical review and updates external cost estimates of energy-related impacts on land use change, acidification, eutrophication, visual intrusion and climate change across Europe and for selected non-EU countries. • Jointly with WP2 and WPs4-7, research findings are presented and discussed in a stakeholder workshop. Results on land use change, acidification, eutrophication, visual intrusion and climate change are shared with the coordinator of WP2 to be included in the ECOSENSE model.

44. WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs • VU-IVM • reviews and updates monetary estimates of energy-related land use change and climate change impacts; • contributes to the review and update of monetary estimates of impacts on aquatic ecosystems; • prepares a database on studies concerning external cost estimates of land use changes, acidification, eutrophication and climate change. Continue…

45. WP3 – Non human health related environmental costs … • Sweco Grøner • reviews and updates monetary estimates of acidification impacts on freshwater fish, and impacts of eutrophication on use values and non-use values, and estimates of landscape aesthetic impacts of renewable energy; • provides a state-of-the art review of valuation studies on these topics and a discussion on benefit transfer methods for these values. • UW • studies the impacts of various emissions related to energy systems; • focuses on the impacts of acidifying compounds on terrestrial ecosystems, including agriculture.

46. Description of Work Packages WP4 Private Costs of Electricity and Heat Generation

47. WP 4 – Private Costs WP4 objectives Determine the private costs for electricity and heat generation of different technologies for selected countries • Overview of existing heating technologies and electricity generation plants in previous studies. • Updating to the state-of-the-art technologies and extending with technologies under development. • Determination of the levelised lifetime cost of the heat and electricity generation technologies. • Accomplishment of some sensitivity analysis for different • load factors • workers’ salaries and • annual energy production.

48. WP 4 – Private Costs WP4 partners • USTUTT/IER, University of Stuttgart – Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy (WP coordinator) • VITO, Flemish Institute for Technological Research • COPPETEC, Fundação COPPETEC • IIMA, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad • ERI, Energy Research Institute, China • EAP, Energy Agency of Plovdiv, Bulgaria • TUBITAK, Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknik Arastirma Kurumu - Marmara Research Center, Institute of Energy

49. WP 4 – Private Costs WP4 description of work - overview of technologies (proposed by WP leader)

50. WP 4 – Private Costs Components of static social cost for electricity generation (From EUSUSTEL project) • global external costs due to • specific emissions • other external life cycle cost • costs of system integration due to • stochastic wind, solar and hydro power supply • spatial distribution, share of total generation • private generation cost • from an overall system oriented point of view • Average Lifetime Levelised Electricity Generation Cost • Solve for the price that makes costs equal to revenue over the lifetime of the project • from an investor‘s point of view additional premium due to risks in liberalised markets (e.g. electricity prices, economics, regulatory and political factors) should be considered