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EMF-22 Kick-off meeting Programme of work 2005-2007

EMF-22 Kick-off meeting Programme of work 2005-2007. Bruxelles, Nov. 10-12, 2004 Richard Loulou (representing ETSAP). Plan. Brief summary of k-o meeting New important issues Proposed work plan for ETSAP Benefits to ETSAP and EMF Recommendation. I. Meeting Summary.

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EMF-22 Kick-off meeting Programme of work 2005-2007

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  1. EMF-22 Kick-off meetingProgramme of work 2005-2007 Bruxelles, Nov. 10-12, 2004 Richard Loulou (representing ETSAP)

  2. Plan • Brief summary of k-o meeting • New important issues • Proposed work plan for ETSAP • Benefits to ETSAP and EMF • Recommendation

  3. I. Meeting Summary • Title: “Climate Policy Scenarios for Stabilization and in Transition” • Participants: 20-30 teams. Most major global models represented: AIM, MESSAGE, SGM, MERGE, MINICAM, IMAGE, GEMINI, TIMES, ABARE, IPAC, GRAPE, + specialized groups (climate, land-use, etc.) • Time frame: 2005, 2006, part of 2007 • Issues: • Stabilization targets (concent, forcing, temperatures ?) • Baseline Assumptions • Policy Simulation Options (Specific Policies v. Stabilization Targets) • Uncertainty and Hedging • Burden Sharing, dates of entry • Land-uses (with climate feedbacks) • Black Carbon and Organic Carbon forcings

  4. EMF-22 Priorities HIGHEST LOWEST

  5. The five sessions Session 1: Long run stabilization scenarios (IMAGE, IIASA, Tol, TIMES, MERGE, Schlesinger on Climate sensitivity) Session 2: Transition Scenarios (J.Reilly on non-CO2 gases, Gary Yohe on Hedging) Session 3: Black Carbon, Organic Carbon as “new” forcing substances (aerosols) Session 4: Land Use modeling Session 5: Design of EMF-22 studies

  6. EMF-22 Workgroups • Black Carbon WG (inventories, forcing) • Land-Use WG (impacts and feedbacks) • Climate WG (refine climate models) • Hedging WG: achieve long term temperature stabilization target with assumptions : • Medium term climate uncertainty, • Growth rates, • Participation of regions

  7. II. Key Issues a)Non CO2 GH G’s • EMF-21 was devoted to developing Marginal Abatement Cost Curves (MAC’s) for methane, non-energy CO2, N2O) • These MAC’s are available to EMF participants. They may be incorporated into TIMES with some careful modeling. Francisco de la Chesnaye (US EPA) agreed to provide all data and some technical help.

  8. b) Uncertainty and Hedging • The most uncertain parameter of climate models is the so-called Climate Sensitivity DeltaT = A * Delta F (at equilibrium) • It is customary to define climate sensitivity as the equilibrium temperature change due to a doubling in radiative forcing

  9. CDF of climate sensitivity

  10. Hedging • Two alternative temperature targets: 2.5oC and 3.5oC • Two growth rates, each 50% probability, resolution in 2050 • Climate sensitivity uncertain until 2040 (3 or 5 discrete values) resolution in 2050 • Participation of regions: TBA

  11. Event tree (for stoch. TIMES) HG, Low sensit HG, Med sensit HG, High sensit LG, Low sensit LG, Med sensit LG, High sensit 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 80 2100

  12. c) Black Carbon / Organic Carbon • Both are carbon particulates from incomplete combustion of fossil fuels (Coal, Biomass, Diesel) • BC from coal and diesel combustion has positive forcing • OC from open fires of biomass has negative forcing • Net forcing from BC/OC seems to be significant, positive, and uncertain • Life cycle for both BC/OC is very short (weeks, but technologies producing BC have longer lives !)

  13. III. Possible TIMES Workplan

  14. IV. Benefits to ETSAP and to EMF • Full cooperation from EMF on Other gases, latest knowledge on climate, etc. • Well-known showcase for ETSAP work, special publications, EMF website • Influencing EMF methodologies • Reinforce collaborations with IIASA, LBNL, other B-U modelers • Closer ties with TD modelers, with possible benefits for linking TIMES to macroeconomics.

  15. V. General Recommendation • Participate in EMF-22 for full duration (2004-2007) • Do as much as reasonably possible, within budgetary constraints: • Priority 1 (2004-2005): Technologies, Other Gases, Climate Modules 1 and 2 • Priority 2 (2005-2006): Stochastic Programming, Hedging Strategies, Damping Costs • Priority 3: Land-use, Black and Organic Carbon emissions

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