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US Foreign Policy in the Age of Obama

US Foreign Policy in the Age of Obama. Renewal, Return, and Continuity Michael Baun Valdosta State University. Hope. Key determinants of a nation’s foreign policy:. basic national interests personality, beliefs, character of leadership domestic politics (demands, constraints)

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US Foreign Policy in the Age of Obama

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  1. US Foreign Policy in the Age of Obama Renewal, Return, and Continuity Michael Baun Valdosta State University

  2. Hope

  3. Key determinants of a nation’s foreign policy: • basic national interests • personality, beliefs, character of leadership • domestic politics (demands, constraints) • domestic institutions (constraints) • actual international situation (constraints, opportunities, events) • power and capacities: “hard” – military and economic; and “soft” – international alliances, institutions, legitimacy

  4. US basic national interests: • security • prosperity • democracy

  5. Obama’s values = key principles of US foreign policy: • inclusion (vs. division) • multilateralism (vs. unilateralism) • soft power (vs. hard power) • respect (interests of others) • pragmatism (vs. ideology) • professional competence (vs. ideology, personal loyalty) • strategic thinking

  6. Domestic politics Mood of Americans: • weary of war • skeptical that US action to change things • want to restore US global image • priority on fixing domestic economy

  7. Domestic institutional constraints • separation of powers (Congress) • electoral cycle – 2010 congressional; 2012 presidential elections

  8. Actual international situation • inherited problems (Bush legacy) • unanticipated or anticipated events

  9. Power and capacities • “hard power” – military capacity • “soft power” – international alliances, institutions, and legitimacy

  10. Iraq • responsible withdrawal; all “combat” forces by August 2010 (35-50,000 troops remaining); all US forces must be out by end of 2011 (US-Iraqi agreement) • comprehensive regional agreement?

  11. Middle East • renewed engagement • negotiations on two-state solution • more balanced US position (more pressure on Israel) • consultations with all interested parties – Hamas? • regional approach – negotiations with Syria

  12. Iran • stop nuclear weapons program • open to direct negotiations; cooperation on Afghanistan? • bigger “carrots” (WTO membership, investment, normalized diplomatic relations) and “sticks” (tougher sanctions, military option) • more cooperation with Russia and China

  13. “Afpak” • biggest foreign policy problem • the “right war” • more troops (17,000 in February) – more later? • bigger European contributions – economic and civil support • missile and special ops strikes into Pakistan; negotiate with moderate Taliban? • more limited goals • problem of destabilization of Pakistan (“nightmare scenario”) • more economic and military aid to Pakistan

  14. China • most important US bilateral relationship for future • deal with China’s rise – integrate into global system as “responsible stakeholder” • broaden focus from financial/economic relations: climate change, energy, regional and global security, global governance • downplay democracy and human rights

  15. Russia • hit “reset button” on US-Russia relations • “grand bargain”? missile defense, arms control (START), European security, respect for Russian interests in “near abroad” – i.e. NATO enlargement (although “no spheres of influence”) …in return for Russian cooperation on Iran, Afghanistan, drug trade, etc.

  16. Climate change • renewed US engagement and leadership • post-Kyoto agreement in Copenhagen, December 2009 • involve China and India • domestic energy and environment plans include introduction of “cap and trade” system

  17. Global economic crisis • domestic stimulus and reform • global coordination to restore international economic growth – coordinated stimulus? • new regulatory system for global finance? • strengthen and reform international financial institutions (IMF, IBRD) • maintain global free trade system (although more protection of labor and environment; tougher stance on completing Doha)

  18. Common US-EU interests? • Iraq • Middle East (Israel-Palestine) • Iran • Afghanistan-Pakistan (“Afpak”) • China • Russia • climate change • global financial and economic crisis

  19. US-Europe: “essential” partners

  20. Renewal • of image, promise of America • of American leadership (in deed and by example)

  21. Return to traditional principles of US foreign policy: • engagement • multilateralism • diplomacy • institution-building • prudence • reluctance to use force, but willingness to do so

  22. Continuity • of basic national interests • constraints imposed by inherited problems

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