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NOAA Climate Program Update

NOAA Climate Program Update. Chet Koblinsky NOAA Climate Program Director February 2005. NOAA Strategy. Vision

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NOAA Climate Program Update

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  1. NOAA Climate Program Update Chet KoblinskyNOAA Climate Program DirectorFebruary 2005

  2. NOAA Strategy • Vision • A vastly enhanced scientific understanding of the role of the oceans, coasts, and atmosphere in the global ecosystem available to society and national leadership as a basis for critical social and economic policy decisions • Mission • To understand and predict changes in the Earth’s environment and manage coastal and marine resources to meet the Nation’s economic, social and environmental needs.

  3. NOAA Goals • Protect, restore, and manage the use of coastal and ocean resources through an ecosystem approach to management • Understand climate variability and change to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond • Serve society’s needs for weather and water information • Support the nation’s commerce with information for safe, efficient, and environmentally sound transportation • Provide critical support for NOAA’s mission

  4. FY05 Enacted Budget by Goal Commerce & Transportation 4% Ecosystems 35% Mission Support 34% Climate 6% Weather & Water 21%

  5. Understand Climate Variability and Change to Enhance Society’s Ability to Plan and Respond OUTCOMES • A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions • Climate-sensitive sectors and the climate-literate public effectively incorporating NOAA’s climate products into their plans and decisions Observations & Analysis Climate Forcing Predictions & Projections Climate & Ecosystems Regional Decision Support Programs

  6. NOAA Climate Program Overarching Organization (NEW) NOAA Management Science Advisory Board NOAA Planning NOAA Research External Advisory Panel NOAA Climate Program Office Climate Program Board Develops program All NOAA represented NEW Administers goal and programs Includes Climate Office Office of Global Programs Climate Observations and Services Program Office of Climate Observations and ARGO Arctic Research Office Provides scientific and programmatic advice

  7. NOAA’s Climate ActivitiesFY05 Enacted Budget Mission Support 36% Satellites, Platforms, Facilities Climate Change Science Program 31% Climate and Global Change, Climate Obs and Services, CCRI USGCRP and CCRI 74.1 Operations 18% Data Centers, Predictions, Delivery Research Laboratories 15%

  8. Planning Results Execution NOAA Strategic Plan Individual Performance Plans Appropriation AGM Programming Budgeting Goal and Goal-Wide Program Plans Program AOPs LO & SO AOPs Budget Operating Plan NOAA Program NOAA Planning - Execution Cycle

  9. GEOSS Global Earth Observing System of Systems • A distributed system of systems • Improves coordination of strategies and observation systems • Links all platforms: in situ, aircraft, and satellite networks • Identifies gaps in our global capacity • Facilitates exchange of data and information • Improves decision-makers’ abilities to address pressing policy issues

  10. Observations and Analysis Integrated Ocean Observation System: Global The global ocean component of the observing system is primarily focused on climate. FY06 Priority Indian Ocean FY07 Priority Arctic Expansion Participants PMEL AOML External

  11. Observations and Analysis Integrated Surface Observing Systems An integrated surface observing system is being developed for the US. Contributing Systems Climate Reference Network COOPerative Observing Network (Weather Reference Network) Marine Buoys ASOS SNOTEL (USDA) RAWS (BLM) Regional and State Mesonets Major workshop last year developed a strategy. Reports are available. Participants NCDC NWS External

  12. Observations and Analysis Upper Air Observing Systems • NOAA oversees a number of upper atmospheric observing systems for climate. In order to plan for an integrated upper air observing system, we are conducting a series of workshops, joint with GCOS: • Objectives and Requirements Boulder Feb 8-11, 2005 • Measurement Approaches Seattle Late May, 2005 • Implementation Planning Washington Fall, 2005

  13. Observations and AnalysisOngoing Analysis In partnership with NSF and NASA, NOAA is developing a program on “Ongoing Analysis” for the global atmosphere, oceans, and land, as well as focused regional analyses for select regions, such as North America and the Arctic. Major workshops for atmosphere, ocean and Arctic were completed in FY04. FY06 Priority: Atmosphere FY07 Priority: Arctic Participants NWS/NCEP Climate Diagnostics Center Arctic Office Office of Climate Observations External

  14. Climate Forcing • Carbon (and other Greenhouse Gases) • Atmosphere and Ocean • Monitoring, Analysis, Model improvements • FY06 Priority: North American Carbon Program • Participants: CMDL, PMEL, AOML, GFDL, External • Atmospheric Composition • Aerosols and Ozone • Field programs, Laboratory studies, Model improvements • FY06 Priority: Indirect Effect, Houston area field program • Participants: Aeronomy Lab, CMDL, GFDL, External

  15. Climate Forcing Carbon Cycle Atmospheric Observing System The vertical profiles of carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, and methane are being measured at 17 aircraft and 3 tall tower sites as part of the North American Carbon Program. When the network is complete (36 total sites by FY2008), regional information on carbon dioxide sources and uptake in North America will be available. 500 meter Carbon Gas Sampling Tower

  16. Climate Forcing NEAQS - ITCT 2004 New England Air Quality Study - Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation

  17. Predictions and Projections • Predictions • Weekly to Seasonal Operational Forecasts • New Coupled Climate Forecast System Model at NCEP • FY06 Priority: Climate Test Bed for Model Improvements • North American Monsoon Experiment completed • Participants: NWS/NCEP, CDC, External (e.g., IRI) • Projections • Scenarios and Assessments of Climate Change • New Coupled Climate Model • FY06+ Priority: CCSP “If…then…scenarios” • Participants: GFDL, External

  18. Predictions and Projections IPCC Projections NOAA/GFDL has built a new coupled climate model for projections. This model has been used to produce projections for IPCC AR4. Observed Model

  19. Climate and Ecosystems Impact of Quasi-Decadal Climate Patterns on Salmon North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity Program What: Understanding and Forecasting ecosystem response to changing Climate in the North Pacific Why: Alaska supplies about one half of seafood caught in US Participants NOAA Fisheries NOAA Research Catch (millions)

  20. Regional Decision Support • Developing a Climate Service • Regional Decision Support • Regional Integrated Science and Assessments (RISA) • Regional Climate Centers (External partnership through NCDC) • FY05-06 Priority: Climate Impacts in Coastal Region Extension Agents • FY07 Priority: Delivery of Products and Services through Local Forecast Offices (NWS) • Sectoral Decision Support • Refocusing of Climate and Societal Interaction group in OGP • Health, Agriculture, Energy, Urban, Coastal, Sustainability, Human Dimensions

  21. Regional Decision SupportRegional Integrated Science and Assessments The RISAs provide a direct connection between research and end users. They have a strong focus on drought issues, how current climate products are used and interpreted, and what are the needs for next generation regional climate information products. FY06 - ALASKA • RISA research is: • User focused • Interdisciplinary • Place-based • Considers multiple stressors • Focuses on key regional issues • Provides and assesses uses of • climate information and products for regional decision support

  22. Arctic Challenges • What are today’s climate challenges in the Arctic? • What is role of NOAA’s climate program in the Arctic? • What are important Arctic climate products and • services for NOAA to develop and deliver? • What is the vision for an end-to-end NOAA Arctic • climate service? • Who are key partners? • What are the requirement drivers? • What are the requirements? • Who are the key stakeholders? • What are the phenomena? • How can NOAA capitalize on the IPY to develop these • services?

  23. NOAA Climate Program BACKUP

  24. Players in the Cycle NOAA Strategic Plan Stakeholders Users Constituents Partners Employees OUT- COMES NOAA Goal-Wide Programs, Staff Offices, & Councils NOAA Line Offices • Ecosystems • Climate Mission Goal Teams • Weather & Water • Commerce & Trans

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