NOAA Climate Observations and Services Program

1. NOAA Climate Observations and Services Program Dave Goodrich NOAA Climate Observations and Services Program March 19, 2002

2. NOAA Climate Services Overview Vision and Mission Management and NOAA Roles Evolving Products and Services An Example: the Carbon Cycle Regional Services

3. Vision • Seamless climate services enabling • BBetter management of energy, agriculture, water, etc., through analyses, observations, and predictions • AAssessment of environmental impacts of natural and anthropogenically induced changes, and the effects of remedial actions

4. Mission • Timely delivery to decision-makers of • Data and products • Expert assessments • Predictions of climate variability and change on intra-seasonal to centennial time scales

5. Basic Components

6. Executive Committee: AA’s for NWS, NESDIS, OAR Climate Observations and Services Program Board NOAA Climate Services Management Advisory Panel COS Program Office

7. NOAA Climate Services Climate Observations and Services Program Board Ants Leetmaa (Chair) – Geophysical Fluid Dyn. Lab.Daniel Albritton – Aeronomy Lab.Robert Livezey – NWS Climate Services James Laver – Climate Prediction CenterThomas Karl – Natl. Climatic Data CenterArnold Gruber – Office of Research and ApplicationsDavid Goodrich – Climate Obs. and Svcs. Office

8. Present Lead Roles Within NOAA Major Supporting Activities Product Line Satellite Obs., Data Stewardship Climatology, Assessments NESDIS NWS OAR Models,Surface Observations S/I Prediction Research, Ocean Obs., Models Dec/Cen Assessments Not inclusive; each line office has some responsibilities in each of these areas

9. Building to the Future Examples of New Products and Services Building on CCRI Climate assessment scenarios – exploring options for managing greenhouse gases and aerosols Regular documentation of carbon sources and sinks, with particular emphasis on North America Regular attribution of recent climate trends between anthropogenic forcing and natural variability Regular State of the Atmosphere reports Improved local services through enhanced interactions with RISA’s, RCC’s, SC’s, and private sector

10. Product: “Maps” of Carbon Sources and Sinks Where we were in 1998: • “3 box” world • Single 5 year period for “map” • Discrepancy between atmospheric and inventory methods Where we’re going-- near term: • Continental scale resolution • Seasonal maps Near term improvements needed: • Atmospheric transport models • Additional stations in under-sampled regions and over continents • Carbon maps of the future: • • Fully dynamic, model-data • fusion products globally • • Local scale (10s of km) • • Real time • Future improvements needed: • Model-data fusion methods • Coupling with weather models • Satellite data/in situ validation

11. U.S. Climate Reference Network Real-time Network Performance Monitoring