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SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS

SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS. May 22, 2012. ...The Process. Enrollment History Student Research -Geo-code Appraisal Research Housing Research -Single Family -Multi Family Economic Indicators -Census Data Projections -Campus and Grade. Existing Enrollment Trends.

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SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS

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  1. SCHOOL DISTRICT ESTIMATES AND PROJECTIONS May 22, 2012

  2. ...The Process • Enrollment History • Student Research -Geo-code Appraisal Research Housing Research -Single Family -Multi Family • Economic Indicators • -Census Data Projections -Campus and Grade

  3. Existing Enrollment Trends • 973 New Students, exceeded forecast by 500 students • Total net growth previous 5 years: 899 • Kindergarten growth of 8%, largest class in recent history • First grade exceeds 3,000 students for first time • KG-3rd grade enrollment exceeds 9th-12th by over 2,500 students • 12th grade survival rate dropped below 95% for first time

  4. Understand Race/Ethnicity Trends Track changes in poverty

  5. Kindergarten Growth Exceeds 8% (13% in two years) Kindergarten Growth exceeds 19% 10 Shaded Schools had a total increase of 173 students. 75% of net growth from 2010/11 to 2011/12 Apartment Points

  6. Appraisal District Data Dallas County Appraisal District • Combined over 63,000 records • “Over 65” exemptions • Accurate Residential Geo-Code Over-65 increases consistent with aging population as detailed through 2010 Census reports. Source: Dallas County Appraisal District

  7. Trailing Vine Apartments (Hirsch Elementary) Park at North Vista ( Meyer Elementary) Students / Units = Yield 56 (18 Elem) / 96 = .58 Students / Units = Yield 221 (115 Elem) / 252 = .88 Note: In 2010 this complex had 89 students (43 Elem) a yield of .92. Note: In 2010 this complex had 235 students (127 Elem) a yield of .93.

  8. Future Development - Viridian • Developer has begun permitting SF homes. • Expects 250 Homes by end of 2013 Huffines Community • 2,000 Acres • 3,500 Single Family • Multi-Family or TH/Condo • 450 acres of lakes • Mixed Use • Build-out 8-10 years

  9. 2000 Census Total Population ISD: 68,207 Total “Under 18” Population: 20,122 29% of Total Population Under 18 2010 Census Total Population ISD: 74,409 Total “Under 18” Population: 18,791 25% of Total Population Under 18

  10. Grade Level Analysis and Projections

  11. Campus Projections SF1 Census Block data by age Campus Enrollment by grade

  12. ISD Population Estimates When/how do we adjust household size? Annual New home Closings Change above - 2.75 – 2.86 – Actual 2010 Census 2.93

  13. Texas Education Agency http://ritter.tea.state.tx.us/adhocrpt/Standard_Reports.html

  14. Small “Area” Estimates • AOI: collection of 2010 census blocks • Summarized data • researched housing April ‘10 – April ‘12 • Developed occupancy rate using parcel owner ship records • Census household sizes • April 2012 Population • Compared change to local population estimate changes and ISD growth.

  15. Was that right…?

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