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Explore the impact of partial and full liberalization scenarios on EU-Mediterranean trade using the CAPRI modeling system. Discover changes in trade flows, prices, and market dynamics for various agricultural products.
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Quantitative assessment of EU-Mediterranean trade liberalization using the CAPRI modelling system Lucie Weissleder Institute for Food and Resource Economics University of Bonn, Germany
Outline of the presentation • The CAPRI Model • Simulation Scenarios • Partial liberalisation • Full liberalisation • Selected results • Conclusions
The CAPRI model • CAPRI: • Developed by the Institute for Food and Resource Economics, University of Bonn and Partners • Main features: • Agricultural sector model • Regionalised optimisation modules for EU25 • World-wide trade model • Changes in the CAPRI model for the project
Mediterranean products • Supply and market model now features additionally as endogenous products: • Tomatoes • Apples, pears and peaches • Citrus fruits • Table grapes • Other fruits • Potatoes • Other vegetables • Olive oil • Wine • In total some 40 products EU Entry Price System
Split up „Med country block“ • Own behavioral equations in trade model for: • Morocco • Tunesia • Algeria • Egypt • Turkey • Israel • Morocco and Turkey as individual countries (new), Tunesia, Algeria, Egypt and Israel aggregated in a remaining “Med” block
The CAPRI model: Policy • World-wide: • Tariffs and TRQs • For the EU • Minimum Entry Price -> NEW • Problem: seasonality • Export subsidies • Intervention purchases • Direct payments
Simulation Scenarios Two Scenarios have been defined • Partial EU-MED liberalisation • Full EU-MED liberalisation
Results • Trade flows • Partial liberalisation • EU imports • EU exports • Full liberalisation • EU imports • EU exports • Prices
Only small effects on EU markets, but notable changes for individual countries from the mediterranean area Conclusions • Partial EU-MED liberalisation • EU Imports: • Cereals ± 0% • Morocco: +1% • Other countries unaffected • Vegetables and permanent Crops +2.5% • Morocco: +20% • Turkey -3% • Other mediterranean ± 0% • Other product groups mainly unchanged • EU exports • Only very minor changes • EU prices • Unchanged
Conclusions • Full EU-MED liberalisation • EU imports • Cereals: +11% • Turkey +145% • Other mediterranean +100% • Morocco +30% • Vegetables and permanent crops +19% • Other mediterranean +300% • Turkey +60% • Morocco +60%
Significant increase of trade for cereals and vegetables and permanent crops Conclusions • EU exports • Cereals +20% • Turkey: +500% • Other mediterranean: + 98% • Morocco: +70% • EU prices • Cereals +4.1% • Other products only small changes
Quantitative assessment of EU-Mediterranean trade liberalization using the CAPRI modelling system Lucie Weissleder Institute for Food and Resource Economics University of Bonn, Germany
Appendix – Additional Slides Partial EU-Med liberalisation combined with the WTO G20 proposal
Simulation Scenario: Partial EU-MED + WTO G20 • Export subsidies will be eliminated • LDC countries are exempted from tariff cuts
Results • EU imports • Overview • Specific countries • EU exports • Overview • Specific countries • Price changes
Conclusions • Inconsistent changes in the imports from Turkey, Morocco and the Med. block • Changes depend on the competitiveness of the individual countries • Preferential situation decreases visibly • The exports of the EU increase in general with a few exceptions
