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Tipping Point

Tipping Point. James Hansen. Little about me…. Mackenzie Bart Third Year Atmospheric Sciences. James Hansen.

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Tipping Point

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  1. Tipping Point James Hansen

  2. Little about me… • Mackenzie Bart • Third Year • Atmospheric Sciences

  3. James Hansen • JAMES HANSEN is director of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies. Hansen is also Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, and he appeared in An Inconvenient Truth. In 2009, he published his first book Storms of my Grandchildren. • He has also criticized the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change for not adequately addressing the danger of large sea level rise.

  4. National Arbor Day foundation Hardiness- geographically defined area suitable for a specific category of plant life to grow.

  5. Tipping Points • Greenhouse Gases reach level where climate changes enhance • Intensifying the Hydrologic Cycle • Fresh water availability • Human health • Rising Sea Levels • Repeating Coastal Storms • Resolution? • Move to a fundamentally different energy pathway within a decade • Changing Government • Understanding nature and climate change

  6. Behind the scenes Earth heated by sun (Climate forcing) Changes to energy balance alter Earth’s mean temperature Amount of equal heat/absorbed solar energy radiates back to space

  7. Earth Climate Change • Feedbacks: Changes that occur in response to temperature change • Fast feedbacks- more water vapor, which traps additional heat, and less snow and sea ice, which exposes dark surfaces that absorb more sunlight. • Slower feedbacks- forests and shrubs are moving pole ward into tundra regions. Expanding vegetation absorbs sunlight and warms the environment, increasing wetness of the Greenland and West Antarctica ice sheets in the warm season and as tundra melts, methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, is bubbling out. • Inertia of Oceans and Ice sheets • Change/disintegration

  8. Over the edge • Swamping of coastal cities • Central Texas to Oklahoma to Dakotas become more drought prone and ill suited to agriculture, people, and animals • Expansion of dry areas in Africa • Asia/South America would lose primary dry season freshwater source as glaciers disappear • Major wildlife causalities

  9. WILDLIFE • Disturbed Phenological Events • Cycle of Leaves/Flowers/Plants • Migration/Breeding/Hibernation • 943 species have moved or had to change because of climate • Extinction • Polar Animals • Reduction of food source • Animals forced to move

  10. Mountains • Alpine Regions • Temperature Range moves up mountains • Smaller livable conditions • Thinner air • Climatic • Increases periods of heat • Droughts • Forest Fires • Mount Graham Red Squirrel • Endangered species • Survives on Mountain in Arizona • Declined from 100-200 animals

  11. Under the Sea • Rising Sea levels and increased amount of storms • Seawalls are preventing access to the beach from water • Areas without these walls are limited and susceptible to rise in sea levels • Loggerhead Turtles • Bury eggs in the beach • Nesting areas destroyed or unable to nest

  12. Carbon Dioxide Cycle • In the cycle: • Ocean quickly takes up a fraction of carbon dioxide emissions • Uptake slows as carbon dioxide added to the ocean exerts a “back pressure” • Further uptake depends upon carbon dioxide mixing into the deep ocean and precipitating out of ocean water via carbonate sediments • After 100 years, 1/3 of carbon dioxide emissions still remain and ¼ remain after 500 years • Dangerous level of carbon dioxide is at most 450 part per million (ppm) • 2007 carbon dioxide increased from 280 ppm to 383 ppm , and it is now increasing by about 2 ppm per year • Carbon reservoirs and the ocean’s pace of removing carbon dioxide are important boundary conditions in framing solutions to the climate crisis. • Temperature increasing 0.2°C per decade

  13. Carbon Dioxide Emissions

  14. Game Plan • Coal and unconventional fossil fuels must be curtailed and used only with capture and sequestration of the carbon dioxide underground. Existing coal-fired power plants should be phased out over the next few decades. • Carbon price and efficiency standards must be implemented. The price can be via a tax on fossil fuels, a ration-and-trade system that limits impacts on people least able to afford an energy tax, or a combination of methods. This will make fossil fuels pay for environmentaldamage while stretching remaining oil and gas to accommodate sustainable economic growth. Also implementing real efficiency standards, for vehicles, buildings, and lighting. • Farming and forestry practices that enhance carbon retention in the soil and biosphere must be supported. Biofuel power plants with carbon sequestration can draw down atmospheric carbon dioxide. • Reduce other non-carbon dioxide forcing's, such as black soot, methane, and ground level ozone via stricter regulations.

  15. Conclusion • Efficiency of future vehicle power • No ethanol based fuel • April 2007 Supreme Court decision with Environmental Protection Agency • Regulate greenhouse gas emissions • Push government for policies including energy efficiency and clean energy sources

  16. Questions?

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