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Thinking about systems

Thinking about systems. and how to change them. Based on Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems - A Primer , Earthscan, 2009 - GT -Apr-09. Key elements. Stocks Flows Feedback Balancing Reinforcing Positive loops Negative loops. Key words. Resilience Self-organisation Hierarchy.

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Thinking about systems

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  1. Thinking about systems and how to change them Based on Donella H. Meadows, Thinking in Systems - A Primer, Earthscan, 2009 - GT -Apr-09

  2. Key elements • Stocks • Flows • Feedback • Balancing • Reinforcing • Positive loops • Negative loops

  3. Key words • Resilience • Self-organisation • Hierarchy

  4. Events Behaviour Structure Non-linear No boundaries Always ad-hoc Limits Delays Bounded rationality Each actor vs welfare as a whole Surprise, surprise

  5. Policy resistance Bounded rationalities Inconsistent goals Let go - give up ineffective policies Overarching goal - so break out of BRs Tragedy of commons Educate, exhort Privatise Regulate Drifting down Absolute / improving standards Traps and opportunities

  6. Escalation Reinf feedback loop Avoid Refuse to compete Balancing loop Success to successful Diversify Limitations (anti-trust) Periodic levelling Rewards without bias Traps and opportunities

  7. Shifting the burden, addiction, dependence Reduces symptions, misses problem Avoid Restructure Rule Beating Design / Redesign to achieve purpose Wrong goal Real Welfare of system Not confuse effort with result Traps and opportunities

  8. Leverage points • Often counter-intuitive • Avoid pushing in wrong direction

  9. Leverage points • Numbers / size of flows • Fiddling with details • Buffers • Size of stabalising stocks • Stock and flow structures • Rebuild it but slow • Design it right in first place

  10. Leverage points • Delays • Common in feedback loops, cause oscillations, critical determinants of system behaviour • If can change, may have big effect, if in right direction • Balancing feedback loops • Often inactive, critical when needed, don’t remove

  11. Leverage points • Reinforcing feedback loops • Source of growth, explosion, erosion, collapse; success to successful • Information flows • Access, if missing malfunction of system • Rules, incentives, punishments, constraints • Who has power over them • High leverage points

  12. Leverage points • Self organisation - power to add, change, evolve system structure • Diversity, variability, experimentation • Losing control • Goals - purpose or function of system • Core issue, who can change • Paradigm - mind set • Shifting changes rest • Transcending paradigms • No paradigm is true, model accurate • Be clear of purpose

  13. System wisdoms • Get the beat of the system • Understand, see how behaves, get data • Expose mental models to light of day • Everything’s only a model • Honour, respect, distribute information • Do not distort, delay, withhold info • Use Language with care, enhance it with systems concepts • Resilience, carrying capacity…. • Be concrete, meaningful, truthful

  14. System wisdoms • Attend to what is important, not just what is quantifiable • Beauty, love, caring, justice, security…. • Make feedback policies for feedback systems • Vary according to response • Go for the good of the whole • Hierarchies exist to serve the bottom layer

  15. System wisdoms • Listen to the wisdom of the system • Aid things that help it run itself • Locate responsibility in the system • In both analysis and design • Stay humble, stay a learner • Celebrate complexity • Expand time horizons • Discount the discount rate, think long term

  16. System wisdoms • Expand the boundary of caring • ‘No part of the human race is separate either from other human beings or from the global ecosystem’ • Don’t erode the goal of goodness • Look at the best we humans can do, spread it.

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