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Bulat Nigmatulin, Institute of Power Engineering Problems, Russia

Analyzing Bulgaria’s electricity use, GDP dynamics, energy losses, and potential growth in energy generation. Exploring future forecasts and implications for the country’s energy security and economic development.

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Bulat Nigmatulin, Institute of Power Engineering Problems, Russia

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  1. Sofia.June 15, 2018. Bulgaria’s Energy and National Security – an independent view from the outside Bulat Nigmatulin,Institute of Power Engineering Problems, Russia

  2. Electricity use (KWh) per $1,000 GDP 2016: Bulgaria, its neighboring countries, and the EU-28

  3. GDP (constant prices), GFCF, and Final Electricity Consumption in Bulgaria 1990-2016 compared to 1990 (World Bank Database)

  4. GPD, GFCF, average annual kel(GDP/GFCF) growth rates, 1980-2016

  5. GDP (constant prices)and electricity consumption dynamics in Bulgaria, 1990-2016 compared to 1990 (World Bank Database, Eurostat).

  6. Installed capacity and electricity generation potential in Bulgaria As the very least to 2025 total installed capacity of all power stations in Bulgaria will amount to11,6 GW with probable electricity generation of54,3 blnkWh a year

  7. Electricity production (gross), electricity generation (net, with distribution losses) and final electricity consumption, 1990-2016

  8. Total energy losses, electricity consumptionon energy own use and total distribution losses, per cent from electric generation (gross) in Bulgaria, 1990-2016

  9. Bulgaria’s total energy losses decreased from34% (1999) to27% (2015); EU-28 average – 16% Bulgaria’s energy system operational level is LOW Average additional energy generation potential amounts to 3,7 bln. kWh a year

  10. Exportation, importation, and electricity import-export balance of Bulgaria, 2001-2016 In 1995-2016 positive electricity import-export balance changed from0,16TWh(1995) to 10,7 (2011)TWh. Average import-export balance – 8,9 TWh (2010-2016)

  11. Bulgaria’s provisions for rising internal power consumption Bulgaria’s power engineering has additional opportunities to cover its internal electricity consumption for the near 15-20 years (to 2035): Thanks to drastic decline in electricity consumption for own use and distribution losses Thanks to dropping electric power exportation. Total provisions for electric power generation are: 12,6TWh = 3,7TWh + 8,9TWh It covers nearly 40% of Bulgaria’s average electricity consumption (net) in the recent years (2010-2015)

  12. Bulgaria’s electricity consumption mid-term forecast to 2035

  13. Bulgaria’s GDP and GFCF (constant 2010 prices)in 1980-2016 (fact) and forecast to 2035 – both reference and optimistic scenarios

  14. Referencescenarioaverage GDP growth rate is1,4%, GFCF – 2,6%. 2017-2025: expected average GDP growth rate – 1,5%, GFCF – 2,9%; 2025-2035:GDP growth – 1,0%, GFCF –1,9%. Optimisticscenario:average GDP growth rate is 1,8%, GFCF – 3,5%. 2017-2025: expected average GDP growth rate – 2,0%, GFCF – 3,8%; 2025-2035:GDP growth – 1,5%, GFCF – 2,9%.

  15. Bulgaria’s final electricity consumption in 1980-2015 (fact) and forecast to 2035 – both reference and optimistic scenarios

  16. Referencescenario: substantial electricity consumption growthis not expected, it will amount to as low as 0,6% a year in 2017-2025, and 0,4% – 2025-2035.Electricity consumption surges from 35 to 39 bln kWh,i.e.approximately in1,11 timesor for 4,0 bln kWh. Optimisticscenario: electricity consumption growth will also be insignificant and amount to0,8% a yearin 2017-2025, and 0,6% – 2025-2035. Electricity consumption swells from 35 до 40 bln kWh, i.e. approximately in1,14 разаor for5,5 bln kWh.

  17. CONSLUSIONS Bulgaria’s electricity generationsubstantially outweighsits economic development. GFCF efficiency in Bulgaria’s economy in 2009-2016 islower than in its neighboring countries. In 2015 Bulgaria’s final electricity consumption made up0,84of 1990 andmatched the 1981level.

  18. Bulgaria possesses nearly 40%reserves to meet internal electricity consumption. Bulgaria has no need to expand additional capacities. Major problem is to augment both installed capacity exploitation and power grid facilities to decrease energy losses from 27% to 18% (EU average is 16%)

  19. Thank you for attention!

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