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Uwe R. Fritsche Energy & Climate Division Oeko-Institut (Institute for applied Ecology) Germany

Development of Strategies and Sustainability Standards for the Certification of Biomass for International Trade (Bio-global) The iLUC factor: A Simplified Approach to Quantify GHG Emissions from indirect Land Use Changes. Uwe R. Fritsche Energy & Climate Division

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Uwe R. Fritsche Energy & Climate Division Oeko-Institut (Institute for applied Ecology) Germany

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  1. Development of Strategies and Sustainability Standards for the Certification of Biomass for International Trade (Bio-global) The iLUC factor: A Simplified Approach to Quantify GHG Emissions from indirect Land Use Changes Uwe R. Fritsche Energy & Climate Division Oeko-Institut (Institute for applied Ecology) Germany Input to the CARB Fourth Low Carbon Fuel Standard Expert Workgroup Meeting, July 15, 2010

  2. Indirect LUC • Allincremental use of fertile land imply indirect effects • indirect LUC of bioenergy = direct LUC of agriculture/forestry • real world only knows direct LUC • Distinguish between analytical (science) vs. regulatory (policy) • iLUC factor = proxy for regulation (EU)

  3. iLUC Factor: Approach (1) • developed since 2007; simplified but transparent approach for policy; uses EU RED by-product allocation to be compatible with regulation • hypothesis: displacement and respective LUC equivalent to land use for agro exports (corn, palm, rape, soy, wheat) of most relevant trade countries/regions (BR, EU, ID, US) • derives “world mix” (global average) of land use for exports from yields and traded volumes (FAOSTAT)

  4. iLUC Factor: Approach (2) • Assumptions on LUC per country/region (e.g. grassland to corn in US) for exported commodities, based on Gibbs (2010) and Lapola (2010) • IPCC CO2 emission factors for LUC per ha of displaced land per type and region (distributed over 20 years); • result: theoretical 100% iLUC factor 2005-2030: 11 - 17 t CO2/ha/yr  but “real” values max. 75% of that due to yield increases (1 %/yr 2005-2030) • risk levels of displacement (hadisplaced/hacultivation) depend on market dynamics, estimated as low (25% iLUC factor), and high (50% iLUC factor) - see next slide

  5. iLUC Factor: Data for 2005-2030 “world mix”: export shares of countries (AR/BR, EU, ID, US) foragro products (rape, maize, palm, soy, wheat), yield and trade data from FAOSTAT 200-2007 + trend projections (2010-2020), and scenarios (2030)

  6. iLUC Factor: Data for 2005-2030 The iLUC factor (25-50% risk levels) is comparatively stable until 2020

  7. iLUC Factor: Effects 2010-2020 Effects of dLUC and iLUC on life-cycle GHG emissions of selected biofuels; figures in bold red indicate emission increase instead of reduction; energy-based by-product allocation according to EU RED (also for LUC); data for Europe

  8. ILUC: Comparison of Model Results For comparison: range of 25-50% iLUC factor (2010-2020) for biofuels with net yield of 100 MJ/ha/yr ILUC values incl. life-cycle emissions based on various models (from: PBL 2010)

  9. Some Conclusions • Models and simplified approaches give 10-100 g/MJ range for ILUC, allow “entry level“ estimates for regulation • Beyond models:Dampening ILUC • REDD(if adequately implemented and financed) • “offsetting“: CDM, “free“ land from intensification (baseline!) • Beyond numbers: Prioritizing low-iLUC feedstocks: • wastes/residues (2nd generation) • unused/degradedland (with biodiversity/social safeguards) • Long-term: strengthen climate convention to account for direct emission from all LUC from all sectors

  10. More Information (from Europe) www.oeko.de/service/bio

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