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This presentation discusses the conceptual determination of sustainability, the use of simulation models and spatial data to determine sustainability indicator values, and provides exemplary case studies. It also highlights the research needs in this field.
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Agri-environmental indicators and GIS-based models- Instruments to assess sustainability of land use systems on regional level Karl-Otto Wenkel and Alfred Schultz Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis Centre for Agricultural Landscape and Land Use Research, Müncheberg
Outline of presentation 1 Conceptual determination, and thematic and spatial aspects of sustainability 2 Determination of sustainability indicator values using simulation models and spatial data (simulation model - GIS - coupling) • 3 Exemplary case studies Scenario case study (1): Crane habitat quality Scenario case study (2): N leaching effects of organic farming 4 Conclusions - Research needs Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis
environmental aspects social aspects economic aspects Conceptual determination of sustainability so far no general and uniform understanding of sustainability, but sustainability should address:
Conceptual determination of sustainability • Problem: • conceptual and methodological determination of sustainability What does it mean? How can it be operationalized (that is quantitatively determined in order to evaluate and compare)? [one possible] Solution: provide information on state and trends of environment by using indicators determinate indicator values by monitoring or simulation
Definition of agri-environmental indicator agri-environmental indicator: agri-environmental indicator is a measure of change, or the risk of change, in resources used or affected by land use systems ... provides information that can be used to achieve economic, environmental and social goals ... current state or future trends of indicator values can be observed, measured or simulated
Indicator classes of sustainable land use and indicator examples sustainability indicators agri-environmental indicators economic functions environmental functions available agricultural area biological productivity inhabitant's income ... soil fertility water availability biological integrity ... habitat availability for certain plants and animals habitat availability for certain plants and animals social functions employment recreation value landscape scenery ...
Biological integrity - What is actually investigated ? sustainability indicators agri-environmental indicators availability of habitats for certain landscape specific plants and animals structural properties of landscape (dissection, fragmentation, connectivity, shape, pattern) diversity of landscape elements development potential of landscape economic functions environmental functions available agricultural area biological productivity inhabitant's income ... soil fertility water availability biological integrity ... habitat availability for certain plants and animals habitat availability for certain plants and animals social functions employment rate recreation value landscape scenery ...
agri-environmental indicators Determination of sustainability - Indicators, monitoring and models sustainability operationalization by indicators evaluation by monitoring and/or simulation currentstates indicator monitoring systems computer based indicator models future trends methodology for integrated sustainability assessment of land use systems
Sustainability assesssment - Selection and application of models different indicators and different spatio-temporal resolutions for different hierarchic levels
Sustainability assesssment - Hierarchic indicator selection (example) abiotic indicator biotic indicator water quality habitat quality landscape level amount and quality of water in rivers and lakes (river catchment discharge) general biotic landscape potential (landscape structure indicators, biotopes, biotope patterns and networks, landscape dissections, ...) ecotope, ecosystem level amount and quality of ground water in subterranean catchments (regional aquifer) habitat quality of animals with large area demand within and across ecosystems and biotopes local level ground water levels in damp ecosystems; ground water recharge and nitrate concentration habitat quality of animals with small area demand within specific ecosystems and biotopes
Sustainability assessment - Decision Support Systems (DSS) modell guided Decision Support System
Sustainability assessment - Indicator related component models different spatio-temporal resolutions for different hierarchic levels
Selected bird species and indicator functions Barn Owl (Tyto alba) Fire-bellied Toad (Bombina bombina) Common Crane (Grus grus) Agricultural landscapes with multifaceted use, including grassland component; richly structured agricultural area Open agrarian landscape with intact kettle-holes; richly structured, non-segmented landscape Spacious open agrarian landscape; forests, swamps, mires, as factors of complex landscapes; low-disturbance landscape
Scenario case study (1): Investigation of potential Common Crane habitats in the Uckermark-Barnim region Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis
Scenario case study (1): Common Crane Habitat Quality Situation Particularly on account of economic reasons the intensity of production (fertilizers, pesticides) is decreased and a part of agricultural area is set aside. Problem What does happen with the quality of Common Crane breeding and resting habitats? Scenario assumptions 10 % of agricultural area is set aside mineral fertilization is completely stopped
Scenario case study (1): Impact of set-aside current land use situation set-aside area is increased by 10 % of agricultural area Voss, Wilkening, Lutze, Wieland & Schultz 2000
Scenario case study (1): Impact of stopping mineral fertilization mineral fertilization is completely stopped current land use situation Voss, Wilkening, Lutze, Wieland & Schultz 2000
Scenario case study (2): Model based investigation of N leaching effects of organic farming compared to present agricultural practice in Brandenburg Institute for Landscape Systems Analysis Institute for Land Use Systems and Landscape Ecology
Scenario case study (2): N leaching from different farming systems Situation Under current agricultural practice N leaching can be a phenomenon with harmful effects on water quality dependent on site conditions and farming practice. Problem What does happen with N indicator variables when switching to organic farming? Scenario assumptions The whole agricultural area in Brandenburg is used for organic farming.
Scenario case study (2): Simulated annual nitrate leaching in Brandenburg Kersebaum & Piorr, 1999
Scenario case study (2): Comparison of selected indicators Kersebaum, Piorr & Stachow, 1999
Conclusions - Research needs work to identify and define appropriate sustainability indicators in order to analyze and to evaluate the impacts of different land use systems is to continue particular problems: indicators for slowly acting landscape processes and for long-term effects of pesticides and animal medicaments methods to combine and weight different thematic indicators in order to evaluate and compare land use variants integratively continue development of spatial models for ecological and socio-economic landscape indicators deepen the knowledge on scale dependence or invariance of landscape processes
Thank you for attention ! Questions?
