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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). RAINS-Asia Phase 2: An Integrated Assessment Model for Controlling SO 2 Emissions in Asia. M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets. Contents. Model structure

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International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

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  1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) • RAINS-Asia Phase 2: • An Integrated Assessment Model • for Controlling SO2 Emissions • in Asia M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets

  2. Contents • Model structure • Improvements • Illustrative results • Conclusions

  3. Improvements achieved in Phase 2 • Updated energy projections (2030) • 400 LPS • Flexible region definition, zoom-in capabilities • Multi-year meteorology • SO2 concentrations in ambient air • Improved database on critical loads with 0.1*0.1 degree resolution • Windows-based software • Improved user guidance • Optimization feature

  4. SO2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998 Source: Streets et al., 2000

  5. A revised energy projection for ChinaSource: ERI, Beijing • Changes 1995-2020: • Population +25 % • GDP +420 % • Total energy demand +70 % Coal +50 % Gas +300 % Renewables +30 %

  6. SO2 concentrationsannual mean [g/m3], WHO limit = 50 g/m3 2020 with current legislation 1995

  7. Sulfur deposition 2020 with current legislation 1995

  8. Vegetation map of AsiaSource: CCE, RIVM

  9. Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels (critical loads) 2020 with current legislation 1995

  10. Optimization in RAINS Energy/agriculture projections Emission control options OPTIMIZATION Emissions Costs Atmospheric dispersion Environmental targets Environmental impacts

  11. Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls

  12. Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls

  13. Conclusions • RAINS-Asia 2 now available on CD-ROM • SO2 emissions projections lower than 5 years agodue to slower economic growth and new legislation on emission controls • But acidification problem in Asia will not be fully resolved • Optimization tool can assist in finding cost-effective solutions • Extension to multi-pollutant (PM, NOx, O3, GHG?) approach seems possible and relevant

  14. RAINS Asia 2 • Software on CD-ROM available • Contact Asian Development Bank • or IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains) • Training sessions planned • Zooming-in for national purposes possible, supported by IIASA

  15. On the Internet • Slides of this presentation • in Powerpoint format • are available at • http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains

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