International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) • Emission Inventories and Projectionsof NOx, NH3, and NMVOC in East Asia Z. Klimont The 4th Workshop on the Transport of Air Pollutants in Asia (Model Intercomparison Study – MICS-Asia) October 22 – 23, 2001IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria

2. This project was developed in connection with: • A study of large scale environmental problems in East Asia, funded by the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI) • The China-MAP program, funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration) NASA.

3. Results are published in: • Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Schoepp, W., Amann, M., Streets, D.G., Ichikawa, Y., Fujita, S. (2001) Projections of SO2, NOx, NH3, and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, vol.130:193-198 • Klimont, Z., Streets, D.G., Gupta, S., Cofala, J., Fu, L., Ichikawa, Y. (2002) Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds in China.Atmospheric Environment (accepted for publication) • Klimont, Z. (2001) Current and Future Emissions of Ammonia in China. Proceedings of the 10th International Emission Inventory Conference “One Atmosphere, One Inventory, Many Challenges”, Denver, CO, April 30 – May 3rd, 2001. Paper available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei10/index.html • TRACE-P…emission data sets available…

4. Spatial* and temporal resolution • Japan - Prefectures aggregated into six regions • China - Provinces and megacities (incl. Hong-Kong) • Republic of Korea - provinces aggregated into four regions • Taiwan, ROC; Mongolia; DPR of Korea - country • Russia - six Southern Siberian provinces ‘Oblast’ • * - results presented in 1x1 degree grid Annual emissions • - historical years 1990 and 1995 • - projections for 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030

5. Sectoral resolution • NOx - five major economic sectors, further split into 17 categories) and 17 types of fuel; • NH3 - 14 categories; additionally, for seven livestock types emissions estimated at the ‘housing’ and ‘grazing’ stages. • NMVOC - six primary sectors, further split into 42 to 61 secondary sectors (fuel combustion related sectors distinguish additionally relevant fuel types);

6. Methodology • where: • k,l,m,n - province, sector, fuel, abatement technology; • E(P) - emissions of pollutant P, i.e. NOx, NMVOC ; • A - activity rate; • ef - unabated emission factor; •  - removal efficiency; •  - maximum application rate, and • X - actual application rate of control technology n.

7. Methodology (NH3) where: i,j,k,l,m - province, animal type, abatement, year, fertilizer type; s - four stages, i.e. animal house, storage, application, grazing; L - animal population [thousands head]; FC - fertilizer consumption [Gg N/year]; FP - fertilizer production [Gg N/year]; ef - emission factor [kg NH3/animal; kg NH3/Mg N-fert.produced); nf - nitrogen loss per fertilizer [% of N content/100];  - removal efficiency; X - implementation rate of the abatement technique.

8. Activity data: Energy and Traffic • Energy database: • Based on the RAINS-Asia project • Traffic: • Total fuel consumption based on the vehicle ownership and mileage forecasts (also verified against national and international statistics); • Mode/fuel split derived from available statistical data and experts’ judgment; • Newly developed forecast takes into account differences in future regional developments.

9. Activity data: Industry and other VOC related • Data for 1990, 1995 • distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to energy database in RAINS-Asia; • industry: national and international yearbooks, industrial statistics, surrogate statistics (problems with spatial distribution); • domestic solvent use, paint use, dry cleaning, industrial glue application, printing, degreasing: expert estimates, comparison to Europe and US, spatial distribution based on surrogate statistics, e.g. population, vehicle ownership. • missing data: pharmaceutical industry, parts of chemical industry.

10. Activity data: Industry and other… continued • Projections: • distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to energy projections in RAINS; • industry: changes in national and sectoral GDP as basis for projections in number of industries (chemical, food and drink, wood preservation, other industrial solvent use, etc.); • domestic solvent use (incl. paint), dry cleaning: related to population, GDP forecasts, changing consumption patterns; • industrial paint use: linked to vehicle manufacturing and ownership forecasts, national and industrial GDP.

11. Activity data: Agriculture • Statistical data for 1990-95 from national and international (e.g., FAO, IFA, OECD) yearbooks • Projections derived from agro-economic studies include assumptions on: • Future per capita consumption of milk, beef, pork, poultry, other meat and rates of fertilizer application; • The change in efficiency of production; • The import-export balance of dairy products, meat, etc. • Possible impact of the change of efficiency of production on emission rates. Spatial distribution derived from LUC project at IIASA and work of Li, Isherwood, Wang (1997)

12. Emission factors and more • Originate from national and international sources as well as expert judgement; • Country, region and sector specific parameters taken into account (including climate conditions where appropriate); • Autonomous improvement as well as changes in production efficiency considered.

13. Comparison of emission coefficients(kg NH3/animal; %N loss for fertilizers)

14. Inventories and scenarios • Emissions estimated for 1990 and 1995 - where applicable,including controls; • Long-term developments: • No further controls (NFC) - only existing legislation; • Current legislation (CLE) - taking into account current and forthcoming legislation; • Preliminary BAT scenario for ammonia.

15. Current legislation scenario (CLE) • Stationary sources (NOx) • Japan - SCR on LCP and combustion modifications on other sources; Other countries, except China, Mongolia and Korea, DPR - combustion modifications • Stationary sources (NMVOC) • Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK- chemical industry, refineries, depots and gasoline stations: control of evaporative losses; paint use: good housekeeping and substitution; Other countries – no controls • Traffic (NOx, NMVOC) • Japan, HK - Euro-3; Taiwan, Korea - Euro-2; China - Euro-1 (2001) and Euro-2 (2006); Mongolia and Korea, DPR - no control; also Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK– evaporative controls and oxidation catalysts

16. Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia(106 tons) * For 2030, NFC and a hypothetical BAT scenario

17. Emissions of nitrogen oxides(kt NOx, by country)

18. Emissions of ammonia(kt NH3, by country)

19. Emissions of NOx in East Asia(Mt NOx, by sector) Sectoral Total

20. A NOx projection for East Asia

21. Emissions of NOx from transport in East Asia(Mt NOx, by category)

22. Emissions of ammonia(Mt NH3)

23. NH3 emission structure in China and other regions in 1990

24. Non-agricultural sources of NH3 in Asia

25. Population density(106 capita/grid, data for 1990-95)

26. Spatial distribution of NOx emissions(kt NOx /grid) 1995 2030 (CLE)

27. Spatial distribution of VOC emissions(kt VOC /grid) 1995 2030(CLE)

28. Spatial distribution of livestock in East Asia(103 head /grid; data for 1990-1993) Pigs Large animals

29. Spatial distribution of NH3 emissions(kt NH3 /grid) 1995 2030

30. Emissions of volatile organic compounds in East Asia(kt VOC, by country)

31. Emissions of VOC in East Asia(Mt NMVOC)

32. Emissions of NMVOC from transport in East Asia(Mt NMVOC, by category)

33. Structure of NMVOC emissions in 1995 for selected countries in East Asia

34. Structure of VOC emissionsfor selected countries

35. Per capita VOC emission rates in selected countries, (kg/capita)

36. Anthropogenic NMVOC projection for East Asia

37. Comparison of Chinese sectoral VOC emissions for 1995, (example) a includes also open field burning

38. Ratio of NOx to VOC emissions in East Asia(kt NOx / kt VOC) 1995 2030(CLE)

39. Comparison of NOx estimates for 1990

40. Comparison of VOC and NH3 estimates for 1990

41. Conclusions • Emissions of NOx and NH3 are projected to double by 2030 (compared to 1990) while anthropogenic NMVOC increase by 65%, in spite of assumed legislation and improvements in production efficiency. • Although traffic density is projected to grow very fast, the increase in emissions is successfully slowed down by introduced legislation (transport remains an important source); • Asian (China) emissions of NMVOC characterized by a high proportion originating from biomass burning; • Current structure of NH3 emissions differs from that of Europe; • Several urban areas where emissions increase by a factor of two to three by 2030; • Lack of NMVOC legislation (esp. China) in industry results in high growth of emissions from chemical industry and solvent use, making these sectors the major source in 2030;

42. Necessary improvements • Filling in gaps in historical data; • Locally validated emission factors (including VOC speciation); • Spatial (provincial and lower level) distribution of activities in the past and analysis of the possible future developments, e.g., incorporation of the land use data in order to better estimate the patterns of fertilizer application; • Details on industrial activities and their mid- and long-term projections; • Estimation of ammonia emissions from non-agricultural sources.