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Scenario Planning on LTE mobile network V irtualization

Scenario Planning on LTE mobile network V irtualization. Xue Bai Supervisor : Prof. Heikki Hämmäinen Instructor : Nan Zhang MSc . in Communications Ecosystem Aalto University. Agenda. Research Objectives Background of LTE & LTE virtualization Methodology Scenario planning

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Scenario Planning on LTE mobile network V irtualization

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  1. Scenario Planning on LTE mobile network Virtualization Xue Bai Supervisor : Prof. Heikki Hämmäinen Instructor : Nan Zhang MSc. in Communications Ecosystem Aalto University

  2. Agenda Research Objectives Background of LTE & LTE virtualization Methodology • Scenario planning • Brainstorm(PEST model) Key Findings Conclusion Future work

  3. Objectives The mobile networks are expensive and scarce Networkvirtualization reducesthe amountof infrastructure • reduces energy usage  What are the alternative scenarios of virtualized LTE network for next 5 years? Supporting strategic questions: • What is the role of key stakeholders in LTE virtualization? • How will different scenarios influence the mobile network virtualization in the future?

  4. Background --- LTE(Long-Term Evolution ) Core network Radio access network Figure  1: Basic LTE system architecture(Harri&Antti 2011) A standard for wireless communication

  5. Background --- LTE Core network virtualization Figure  2: 3GPP compliant OpenFlow controlled gateway architecture (Jari 2013)

  6. Background --- LTE Access network virtualization(Air interface) Figure 3:  Virtualized LTE eNodeB protocol stack (Yasir 2012)

  7. Methodology ---Scenario Planning(1/2) To forecast the future? • Too difficult To envision alternative futures (= scenarios) • Not just the probable futures, but also the improbable ones • Not to forecast, but to bound the uncertainty

  8. Methodology ---Scenario Planning(2/2) Figure  1:  Scenario  planning process (Schoemaker 1993)

  9. Uncertainty Key uncertainties Key trends Importance Methodology---Brainstorm An individual or group process of idea generation To identify key trends and uncertainties PEST analysis • Economic / industry forces • Social forces • Technological forces • Political / regulatory forces

  10. Key findings ---Major stakeholders(value network)

  11. Key findings---Scenario analysis(1/5) Key uncertainties: U1: Will LTE virtualization result in intense competition in the mobile market ? U2: Will virtualization of LTE lower the costs? MNO: Mobile Network Operator CSP: Cloud Service Provider NEP:Network Equipment Provider MVNO:Mobile Virtual Network Operator

  12. Key findings---Scenario analysis(2/5) • Sc.1:Regulator-driven competition • Regulator has the power to increase the competition. • MNOs will be pushed to give the cloud out. • NEPs may own the network, since they operate the network now. • CSPs may establish their own mobile network to compete with MNOs. • CSPs/NEPsmay challenge the leadership position of MNO in the market. • More new players will entry the market. • Price to consumers may decrease.

  13. Key findings---Scenario analysis(3/5) • Sc.2: MNO-driven mobile market • MNOs may try to replace the role of CSPs. • CSPsmay rent the network from MNOs to reduce the cost. • NEPs may need expand to provide ICT solutions to keep their profit. • High barrier will be set for new entrants. • The price for consumers may not decrease significantly.

  14. Key findings---Scenario analysis(4/5) • Sc.3: Cooperation between NEP and MNO • MNOs may sale the network to NEPs/MNVO to compete with CSPs. • The price for consumers may decrease. • High barrier will be set for new entrants. • The level of virtualization is not high.

  15. Key findings---Scenario analysis(5/5) • Sc.4: Balance between CSP and NEP • MNOs will not take the role of CSPs. • MNOs may rent/sale the cloud services to CSPs. • MNOs may rent/sale the network to NEPs.(No threaten to MNOs) • The revenue of MNOs may increase because of the better performance. • The price for consumers may not decrease. • High barrier will be set to new entrants.

  16. Conclusion & Future work • The level of LTE virtualization will be determined by the cost reduction. • LTE virtualization may change the market value network in the future. • Scenarios are built from the perspective of LTE virtualization. • Key uncertainties are correlated to a certain extent. • Strategic planning can be done by any given key stakeholder in the future. • Cost reduction can be measured in OPEX and CAPEX.

  17. Thankyou!

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