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Sustainable Mobility

Sustainable Mobility. Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt, DfS, Delft University of Technology 27 March 2002 Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisboa. Sustainable Mobility. Introduction; Dutch Transition Management Visioning and Small Scale Experiments Ph.D., AIDE, and M.Sc projects at TU Delft

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Sustainable Mobility

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  1. Sustainable Mobility Prof. Dr. Philip J. Vergragt, DfS, Delft University of Technology 27 March 2002 Instituto Superior Tecnico, Lisboa

  2. Sustainable Mobility • Introduction; Dutch Transition Management • Visioning and Small Scale Experiments • Ph.D., AIDE, and M.Sc projects at TU Delft • Lessons learned and further research

  3. 1. Dutch Transition Management • Persistent environmental problems: CO2, 80-90 % reduction necessary • Existing policy instruments do not work enough • Need for European and world-wide approach • Transitions and system innovations are necessary

  4. 1. Dutch Transition Management (2) • Transitions: large scale societal changes including technology, culture, institutions, behaviour, and values • Slow societal processes towards a more sustainable situation • Present dominant car transportation regime is locked-in in an unsustainable mode • Role of government as to transitions is not yet clear: facilitating, initiating, giving direction, creating sense of urgency…?

  5. Transitions: CO2 neutral energy

  6. 1. Dutch Transition Management (3) 4 transitions are mentioned in National Environmental Policy Plan-4 (2001) • Energy • Mobility • Agriculture • Biodiversity

  7. 1. Dutch Transition Management (4) • Our hypothesis: visioning combined with small scale experiments is a necessary first step (Vergragt, Brown, Green) • Visioning: SusHouse and Kathalys projects • Hypothesis: in visioning and small scale experiments learning among stakeholders takes place • Second order learning is a necessary condition for regime shift and escaping from lock-in • Implementation of regime shift is less explored area (Kathalys experiences)

  8. 2. Visioning and Small Scale Experiments • Visioning: together with stakeholders brainstorming about future mobility scenarios • Visioning exercises have been performed in STD Programme, SusHouse Project, IEEP Delhi project, and at INETI (Sustainable surface protection for car bodies) • Visioning results in sets of ideas which need to be translated into scenarios • Scenarios need to be assessed with respect to environmental gain, business viability, and consumer acceptance (SusHouse method)

  9. STD Program: factor 20 Factor 20 was defined by the following equation: Year EB M Pr WP 2000: 1 = 1 x 1 x 1 2050: ½ = 1/20 x 5 x 2 EB = Environmental Burden M = Metabolism; environmental burden per unit of need fulfillment Pr = Level of production and consumption WP = World Population

  10. Time horizons factor 20 System innovation; transitions Technological innovation; from products to services End of pipe technologies; Good house keeping; ecodesign 1 2000 2050

  11. Back-casting factor 20 Future vision 1. Creativityworkshop 3. 2. Short-term project Back-casting; Actionplanning 1 2000 2050

  12. SusHouse Methodology • Develop future visions in creativity workshops with stakeholders • Derive Design Orienting Scenarios (DOSs) from future visions • Environmental, economic assessments, and consumer acceptance research of DOSs and proposals • Back-casting and implementation workshops with stakeholders

  13. 2. The Kathalys method • Kathalysis means: acceleration of chemical reaction • Kathalys is collaboration between TNO-Industry and TU Delft-Design for Sustainability • since 1998 • Funded by VROM and EZ • aim: implementation of sustainable products and services on the market

  14. The Kathalys method 5 phases: • 1 Future exploration • 2. System Design • 3. Product/service specification • 4. Drawing in Detail and testing • 5 Implementation

  15. Kathalys-method: 2 5 tracks: • a. Development of Product/service combination • b. Sustainability • c. The organisation • d. The user • e. The economic feasibility

  16. Problems with SusHouse follow-up and Kathalys • Visioning is relatively easy; enrolling stakeholders in visioning is more time consuming • Developing stable business alliances is problematic • Implementation in practice is problematic • Little systematic learning takes place; monitoring is costly • Government does not (yet?) foster systematically small-scale learning processes (niche management)

  17. 3. Ph.D. AIDE, and M.Sc projects at DfS/TUD • Hydrogen fuel cells: car companies strategies (Robert van den Hoed) • System innovation for sustainable mobility: the Mitka case (Luca Berchicci) • Sustainable Mobility in Delhi (Sateesh Kumar Beella) • Sustainable surface protection: a back-casting study (Paulo Partidario)

  18. Volvo, PSA, Suzuki Renault, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi Nissan, BMW, Mazda, Hyundai Ford General Motors, Toyota, Honda Fiat, Daewoo, Fuji Daimler- Chrysler Automotive strategies / FC Mitsubishi In-house core technology development Strong collaboration Extensive outsourcing > $50M $50M - $100 $100M - $250 > $500M $250M – 500M

  19. Available fin. resources Regulatory pressure • Company culture • Firm internal technology network • Top management support Strategy differences External network forces Competencies Explaining factors

  20. 3. Ph.D., AIDE, and M.Sc projects at DfS/TUD (2) 5. Sustainable transportation in Delft: the case of automatic guided vehicles (Adele Elemans) 6. Bicycles and public transportation chain combinations (Mathieu Worm) 7. Sustainable Central Station Rotterdam (Bastiaan van de Werk) 8. Sustainable Olympic Games (AIDE, 2001) 9. Sustainable Texel transportation (AIDE, 2001) 10. Sustainable shopping logistics (AIDE, 2001) 11. Sustainable petrol station (Ivo Leeflang, Shell)

  21. Mobility system Tex Wheeler Busses Taxis Bikes Ferry Park&Drive Bus Bus Shuttle Parking

  22. Local distribution system Final Scenario Scenario Generation

  23. 4. Lessons learned and further research Currently many areas of research: • Car fueling and fuel infrastructure (H) • Substitution for short distance car transportation (Mitka, improved bicycle) • System change in mobility structure (Delhi and Mitka: Texel, Hilversun) • Car body surface protection: from paint to no paint at all or surface PV cells

  24. 4. Lessons learned and further research (2) • Infrastructure as an object of study (car fuel, Mitka, Central Station, Automatic guided vehicles, bicycles) • Services as an object of study: Mitka, automatic guided vehicles, bicycles and public transport) • Technological trajectories and regime shifts: Hydrogen propulsion, Mitka construction

  25. 4. Lessons learned and further research (3) Methodological research: • How to organize visioning effectively and not only at the beginning, but also during an innovation process? • Stakeholder management: how to select, organize, keep together, and get rid of… • Implementation: how to overcome initial barriers; how to enroll powerful stakeholders • Sustainability: how to monitor and steer?

  26. 4. Lessons learned and further research (4) Theoretical research: • Learning processes with stakeholders • Conditions for successful regime shifts • Social Networks as conditional for implementation

  27. Questions and Comments?

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