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Berien Elbersen, ETC-LUSI

Approaches to assess the agricultural biomass potential for energetic use at European level Brussels, 15 April 2010. Berien Elbersen, ETC-LUSI. Critical factors in assessing the agricultural biomass potential. Main environmental factors related to agricultural biomass estimates.

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Berien Elbersen, ETC-LUSI

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  1. Approaches to assess the agricultural biomass potential for energetic use at European level Brussels, 15 April 2010 Berien Elbersen, ETC-LUSI

  2. Critical factors in assessing the agricultural biomass potential

  3. Main environmental factors related to agricultural biomass estimates GHG emissions: climate change effect (mitigation?) Effects on water availability and quality Effects on soil and air quality Effects on natural and semi-natural habitats (valuable ecosystems, High Nature Value farmland, Natura 2000)

  4. Biomass cropping/harvesting effects on environment through: Land use change effect (including iluc) Conversion of natural/semi-natural land use categories (e.g. tropical forests, extensive grasslands) Conversion of degraded land Conversions in existing arable land (e.g. from annual to perennial) Intensification/extensification effect in existing agricultural lands because of an overall increased/decreased pressure on land (cropping and management change) Climate change effect, mitigation (?) reduces adverse effects on biodiversity

  5. Carbon effects of different land uses: starting points + developments.. = food area = ‘good’ biofuels = carbon-negative biofuels = risky biofuels Biodiversity effect is negative too Forest + grassland Productive land area Crop land ‘Degraded’ land 2010 2020 2030

  6. Indirect land use change Forest, grass-land Forest, grass-land Displaced crop area Energy crops Arable land Arable land

  7. Global bio-fuel targets (spring 2008)

  8. Influence of technological development on crop mix and land requirements ECN (2008), REFUEL

  9. Estimating the environmentally compatible bioenergy potential from agriculture.

  10. Environmental constraints as basis for agricultural potential study (I) Extensively cultivated farmland usually has higher biodiversity value  30% of Utilized Agricultural Area ‘environmentally oriented’ farming in 2030 (20% Be, Lux, Malta, NL) • Some farmland species require “ecological stepping stones” •  set-aside 3% of intensively used farmland for nature conservation • High loss of biodiversity & release of soil carbon if grassland/Olive groves/agro-forestry systems (dehesas) are transformed into arable land •  Only use cuttings/prunings from grassland/agro-forestry systems & olive groves

  11. Environmental constraints as basis for agricultural potential study (II) Mixed land use, introduction of perennials, Low-input-high output farming systems and strong adaptation to ecological constraints will put lower pressure on environmental resources and provides more ecological niches  diverse set of energy crops and conversion pathways needed  critical selection of energy crops per environmental zone/region and their management

  12. Result: Environmentally-compatible bioenergy potential from agriculture

  13. Conclusions EEA 2007 potential study It was a theoretical study: It starts from environmental constraints It does not mean that the exploitation will really be carried out in a sustainable way very optimistic technological assumptions (2nd generation economical from 2015 onwards) The issue of competition of bioenergy and food and feed production was avoided. No consideration was given to replacement of reduced exports by production elsewhere to satisfy growing world food demand

  14. Recommendations for up-dated agricultural potential study Study should focus on (most likely) future, taking account of: Wider bioenergy targets (EU, US, China, Brasil, etc.) Expected technology development (1st and 2nd generation and other renewable energy options) and related bioenergy pathways Include all biomass sources (including by- and waste products) Demand for food, feed and biomass Sustainability criteria and stimulation policies Need for coordinated definition of scenarios Need for integrated economic and environmental modelling approach

  15. Recommendations for new EU- environmental impacts assessment study Need for integrated economic and environmental modelling approach predicting: Extent of land use requirements Location of land use changes (in and outside EU) Types of land use conversions (in EU) Types of biomass mix and crop mix (in EU) Effects on: GHG and climate mitigation effects (globally) Emissions to water and soil Water consumption Effects on biodiversity (globally) Trade offs between different EU environmental policy objectives

  16. Thank you for your attention ! • Berien.Elbersen@wur.nl

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