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Initial Results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

Initial Results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Linda O. Mearns , NCAR Chris Anderson, Ray Arritt, Iowa State , George Boer, CCCma, Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Phil Duffy, LLNL , Filippo Giorgi, ICTP ,

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Initial Results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

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  1. Initial Results from the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) Linda O. Mearns,NCAR Chris Anderson,Ray Arritt, Iowa State, George Boer,CCCma, Daniel Caya,OURANOS, Phil Duffy, LLNL, Filippo Giorgi, ICTP, William Gutowski,Iowa State, Isaac Held,GFDL, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, Rene Laprise, UQAM,Ruby Leung,PNNL, Ana Nunes, Scripps, Jeremy Pal, ICTP, Yun Qian,PNNL,John Roads, Scripps, Lisa Sloan, UC Santa Cruz, Ron Stouffer, GFDL, Gene Takle, Iowa State, WarrenWashington, Tom Wigley, NCAR, Francis Zwiers, CCCma

  2. NARCCAP Goals • Explore multiple uncertainties in regional and global climate model projections at the regional scales • Develop multiple high resolution regional climate scenarios for use in impacts models • Further evaluate regional model performance over North America • Explore some remaining uncertainties in regional climate modeling (e.g., sensitivity to domain size, importance of compatibility of physics in nesting and nested models) • Create greater collaboration between US and Canadian climate modeling groups, as well as with the European modeling community

  3. NARCCAP PLAN A2 Emissions Scenario HADAM3 link to European Prudence GFDL CCSM CGCM3 Provide boundary conditions 2040-2070 future 1960-1990 current RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre WRF NCAR/ PNNL MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RSM Scripps

  4. Exp0.2 Exp0.3 Exp0.1 Exp0.0 Domain Sensitivity Study Each simulation lasts for one year (1979) using NCEP/DOE reanalysis b.c.

  5.  Z500 7902 7905 7908 7911 ISU MM5 SIO RSM CRCM PNNL MM5

  6.  Prec 7902 7905 7908 7911 ISU MM5 SIO RSM CRCM PNNL MM5

  7. Subarctic Canadian Prairie Canadian Maritime North Plain NE NW South Plain SE SW Nine Subregions Defined for Analysis

  8. Annual Cycle of Precipitation [mm/month]

  9. Annual Cycle of Tmax [K]

  10. Annual Cycle of Tmin [K]

  11. Bias: Annual P vs. T

  12. Bias: Annual P vs. T

  13. Bias: Annual Tmax vs. Tmin

  14. Bias: Annual Tmax vs. Tmin

  15. 500 hPa Z Bias - Feb 79 Exp 0.0 Exp 0.1 Exp 0.2 ISU MM5 CRCM PNNL MM5

  16. 500 hPa Z Bias - May 79 Exp 0.0 Exp 0.1 Exp 0.2 ISU MM5 CRCM PNNL MM5

  17. Summary • An initial study has been performed to examine the sensitivity of RCM simulations to domain size. • Results suggest weak relationship between bias in large scale circulation and T/P. • MM5s tend to have larger 500 hPa height biases. • RSM and CRCM have larger precip. biases during summer. • HADRM3 has larger warm bias throughout the domain. • CRCM tends to reduce amplitude of diurnal T cycle. • Models exhibit the largest spread in P in the Southeast.

  18. Summary • There are no obvious trends in T & P biases as the domain gets larger, • Although bias in large-scale circulation generally increases with domain size. • Use smallest (least computationally demanding) domain www.narccap.ucar.edu

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